Skill Rating by Bayesian Inference

Systems Engineering often involves computer modelling the behaviour of proposed systems and their components. Where a component is human, fallibility must be modelled by a stochastic agent. The identification of a model of decision-making over quantifiable options is investigated using the game-domain of Chess. Bayesian methods are used to infer the distribution of players’ skill levels from the moves they play rather than from their competitive results. The approach is used on large sets of games by players across a broad FIDE Elo range, and is in principle applicable to any scenario where high-value decisions are being made under pressure

Host-selected mutations converging on a global regulator drive an adaptive leap towards symbiosis in bacteria

Host immune and physical barriers protect against pathogens but also impede the establishment of essential symbiotic partnerships. To reveal mechanisms by which beneficial organisms adapt to circumvent host defenses, we experimentally evolved ecologically distinct bioluminescent Vibrio fischeri by colonization and growth within the light organs of the squid Euprymna scolopes. Serial squid passaging of bacteria produced eight distinct mutations in the binK sensor kinase gene, which conferred an exceptional selective advantage that could be demonstrated through both empirical and theoretical analysis. Squid-adaptive binK alleles promoted colonization and immune evasion that were mediated by cell-associated matrices including symbiotic polysaccharide (Syp) and cellulose. binK variation also altered quorum sensing, raising the threshold for luminescence induction. Preexisting coordinated regulation of symbiosis traits by BinK presented an efficient solution where altered BinK function was the key to unlock multiple colonization barriers. These results identify a genetic basis for microbial adaptability and underscore the importance of hosts as selective agents that shape emergent symbiont populations

An instinct for detection: psychological perspectives on CCTV surveillance

The aim of this article is to inform and stimulate a proactive, multidisciplinary approach to research and development in surveillance-based detective work. In this article we review some of the key psychological issues and phenomena that practitioners should be aware of. We look at how human performance can be explained with reference to our biological and evolutionary legacy. We show how critical viewing conditions can be in determining whether observers detect or overlook criminal activity in video material. We examine situations where performance can be surprisingly poor, and cover situations where, even once confronted with evidence of these detection deficits, observers still underestimate their susceptibility to them. Finally we explain why the emergence of these relatively recent research themes presents an opportunity for police and law enforcement agencies to set a new, multidisciplinary research agenda focused on relevant and pressing issues of national and international importance

Comparison of shot peening and nitriding surface treatments under complex fretting loadings

Considered as a plague for numerous industrial assemblies, fretting associated with small oscillatory displacements is encountered in all quasi-static contacts submitted to vibrations. According to the sliding conditions, fretting cracks and/or fretting wear can be observed in the contact area. On the other hand an important development has been achieved in the domain of surface engineering during the past three decades and numerous new surface treatments and coatings are now available. Therefore there is a critical challenge to evaluate the usefulness of these new treatments and/or coatings against fretting damage. To achieve this objective, a fast fretting methodology has been developed. It consists in quantifying the palliative friction, cracking and wear responses through a very small number of fretting tests. With use of defined quantitative variables, a normalized polar fretting damage chart approach is introduced. Finally, to evaluate the performance of the assemblies after these protective surface treatments under complex fretting loadings, an original sequence of partial slip and gross slip sliding procedure has been applied. It has been demonstrated that performing of a very short sequence of gross slip fretting cycles can critically decrease the resistance of the treated surfaces against cracking failures activated under subsequent partial slip loadings

Population extremal optimisation for discrete multi-objective optimisation problems

The power to solve intractable optimisation problems is often found through population based evolutionary methods. These include, but are not limited to, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation, differential evolution and ant colony optimisation. While showing much promise as an effective optimiser, extremal optimisation uses only a single solution in its canonical form – and there are no standard population mechanics. In this paper, two population models for extremal optimisation are proposed and applied to a multi-objective version of the generalised assignment problem. These models use novel intervention/interaction strategies as well as collective memory in order to allow individual population members to work together. Additionally, a general non-dominated local search algorithm is developed and tested. Overall, the results show that improved attainment surfaces can be produced using population based interactions over not using them. The new EO approach is also shown to be highly competitive with an implementation of NSGA-II.No Full Tex

Competition and Firm Performance: Lessons from Russia

D24, D4, J42, L1, L33, P23, P31The "big-bang" liberalization of the inefficient Russian economy in 1992 provides a fruitful setting for analyzing the impact of several dimensions of market competition and other factors on enterprise efficiency. We analyze 1992-1998 panel data on 14,961 enterprises covering 75 percent of industrial employment, emphasizing the varied sources, geographic scope, intensity, time path, and survival effects of competitive pressures. We find large, positive effects on TFP from competition in domestic product and local labor markets, and from imports and better transportation infrastructure, although the first effect appears only gradually. Non-state firms outperform state enterprises, even after correction for selection bias.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39680/3/wp296.pd

Investigating the trade-off between the effectiveness and efficiency of process modeling

Despite recent efforts to improve the quality of process models, we still observe a significant dissimilarity in quality between models. This paper focuses on the syntactic condition of process models, and how it is achieved. To this end, a dataset of 121 modeling sessions was investigated. By going through each of these sessions step by step, a separate ‘revision’ phase was identified for 81 of them. Next, by cutting the modeling process off at the start of the revision phase, a partial process model was exported for these modeling sessions. Finally, each partial model was compared with its corresponding final model, in terms of time, effort, and the number of syntactic errors made or solved, in search for a possible trade-off between the effectiveness and efficiency of process modeling. Based on the findings, we give a provisional explanation for the difference in syntactic quality of process models