Carbon Capture; Transport and Storage in Europe: A Problematic Energy Bridge to Nowhere?

This paper is a follow up of the SECURE-project, financed by the European Commission to study “Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainties, Risks and Economic Implications”. It addresses the perspectives of, and the obstacles to a CCTS-roll out, as stipulated in some of the scenarios. Our main hypothesis is that given the substantial technical and institutional uncertainties, the lack of a clear political commitment, and the available alternatives of low-carbon technologies, CCTS is unlikely to play an important role in the future energy mix; it is even less likely to be an “energy bridge” into a low-carbon energy futureCarbon Capture, Transport, Storage

Illusion of Power: Russia after the South Caucasus Battle. CEPS Working Document No. 311, 24 February 2009

The war in the South Caucasus sent shockwaves throughout the post-Soviet world, European capitals and across the Atlantic, making more urgent the demand for a re-evaluation of policies towards Russia. The projection of hard power in Georgia generated a number of unintended consequences for the Russian state. The crisis and war unveiled many of Russia’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities across four crucial dimensions: the military, the ‘power vertical’ and federalism, the economy and Russia’s international position. This paper aims at reassessing Russia’s military, political, economic and diplomatic might after the battle in the South Caucasus. The research concludes with proposals for a new Western strategy on Russia and the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood which would ensure an undivided and sustainable European order

A Target Threat Assessment Method for Application in Air Defense Command and Control Systems

Introduction. This paper presents a solution for threat assessment of air targets using the fuzzy logic inference method. The approach is based on the Sugeno fuzzy model, which has multiple inputs representing target trajectory parameters and a single output representing the target threat value. A set of IF–THEN fuzzy inference rules, utilizing the AND operator, is developed to assess the input information.Aim. To develop and test an algorithm model to calculate the threat value of an air target for use in real-time automated command and control systems.Materials and methods. An algorithm model was developed using a fuzzy model to calculate the threat value of a target. The model is presented in the form of a flowchart supported by a detailed stepwise implementation process. The accuracy of the proposed algorithm was evaluated using the available toolkit in MATLAB. Additionally, a BATE software testbed was developed to assess the applicability of the algorithm model in a real-time automated command and control system.Results. The efficiency of the proposed fuzzy model was evaluated by its simulation and testing using MATLAB tools on a set of 10 target trajectories with different parameters. Additionally, the BATE software was utilized to test the model under various air defense scenarios. The proposed fuzzy model was found to be capable of efficiently computing the threat value of each target with respect to the protected object.Conclusion. The proposed fuzzy model can be applied when developing tactical supporting software modules for real-time air defense command and control systems.Introduction. This paper presents a solution for threat assessment of air targets using the fuzzy logic inference method. The approach is based on the Sugeno fuzzy model, which has multiple inputs representing target trajectory parameters and a single output representing the target threat value. A set of IF–THEN fuzzy inference rules, utilizing the AND operator, is developed to assess the input information.Aim. To develop and test an algorithm model to calculate the threat value of an air target for use in real-time automated command and control systems.Materials and methods. An algorithm model was developed using a fuzzy model to calculate the threat value of a target. The model is presented in the form of a flowchart supported by a detailed stepwise implementation process. The accuracy of the proposed algorithm was evaluated using the available toolkit in MATLAB. Additionally, a BATE software testbed was developed to assess the applicability of the algorithm model in a real-time automated command and control system.Results. The efficiency of the proposed fuzzy model was evaluated by its simulation and testing using MATLAB tools on a set of 10 target trajectories with different parameters. Additionally, the BATE software was utilized to test the model under various air defense scenarios. The proposed fuzzy model was found to be capable of efficiently computing the threat value of each target with respect to the protected object.Conclusion. The proposed fuzzy model can be applied when developing tactical supporting software modules for real-time air defense command and control systems

Cardiopulmonary Impact of Particulate Air Pollution in High-Risk Populations: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

Fine particulate air pollution <2.5 μm in diameter (PM(2.5)) is a major environmental threat to global public health. Multiple national and international medical and governmental organizations have recognized PM(2.5) as a risk factor for cardiopulmonary diseases. A growing body of evidence indicates that several personal-level approaches that reduce exposures to PM(2.5) can lead to improvements in health endpoints. Novel and forward-thinking strategies including randomized clinical trials are important to validate key aspects (e.g., feasibility, efficacy, health benefits, risks, burden, costs) of the various protective interventions, in particular among real-world susceptible and vulnerable populations. This paper summarizes the discussions and conclusions from an expert workshop, Reducing the Cardiopulmonary Impact of Particulate Matter Air Pollution in High Risk Populations, held on May 29 to 30, 2019, and convened by the National Institutes of Health, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Equity Research - ExxonMobil Corporation

Mestrado Bolonha em FinançasA ExxonMobil Corporation (“ExxonMobil ou “Empresa”) é a maior empresa cotada de oil & gas totalmente integrada a nível mundial cujas principais actividades incluem i) prospecção, pesquisa e produção de petróleo e gás natural; iii) refinação e marketing de produtos petrolíferos; e, iii) produção e comercialização de produtos petroquímicos. Neste relatório é emitido uma recomendação de MANTER para a ExxonMobil, com um preço alvo de $75,5/acção no final de 2022, o que representa uma valorização potencial de 20$63,08/acção, a 30 de Junho de 2021, mas com risco elevado. A recomendação da empresa é essencialmente explicada por: i) uma estratégia de disciplina no investimento; ii) forte carteira com rentabilidades atractivas; e, iii) reservas provadas significativas. Não obstante, as acções da ExxonMobil estão a ser transaccionadas a desconto, sendo maioritariamente explicado por; i) alta volatilidade dos preços do petróleo e gás natural; ii) incerteza relativamente ao crescimento económico mundial; e, iii) ambiguidade sobre a transição energética do sector e a controversa posição histórica da Empresa sobre estas matérias, em particular sobre temas ambientais. A avaliação da ExxonMobil foi efectuada através do modelo FCFF (seguindo uma abordagem integrada bem como da soma de todas as partes) que foi complementada com outros métodos absolutos, nomeadamente, FTE, CCF, DDM e NAV. Esta avaliação encontra-se sujeita a vários riscos significativos. Para além da elevada sensibilidade às alterações dos preços das commodities, a transição energética representa uma ameaça significativa às operações da ExxonMobil. Contudo, a ExxonMobil encontra-se a reforçar a sua resiliência, investindo significativamente no desenvolvimento de novas tecnologias para mitigar os riscos da transição energética, nomeadamente, CCS, células de combustível, hidrogénio e biocombustíveis. No entanto, reservas permanecem entre os accionistas activistas, atendendo às controvérsias ambientais da ExxonMobil e as baixas pontuações nos índices ESG, o que sugere que deverão ser realizados esforços adicionais por parte da Empresa, de modo a endereçar estes temasExxonMobil Corporation (“ExxonMobil” or Company””) is the largest public Integrated Oil Company in the world and is involved in i) the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas; ii) refining and marketing of petroleum products; and, iii) manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals. This report issues a HOLD recommendation for ExxonMobil, with a 2022YE PT of $75.5/Share, using a DCF model, representing an upside potential of 20$63.08/Share, as of 30th June 2021, however, with a High Risk. The company’s recommendation is mainly explained by: i) the Capital discipline; ii) the strong portfolio, with attractive economics; and, iii) significant proved reserves. However, ExxonMobil’s stock is trading at a discount mostly due to: i) exposure to high volatility in oil & gas prices; ii) uncertainty in global economic growth, following the pandemic economic crisis; and, iii) ambiguity over the industry energy transition and ExxonMobil’s controversial environment issues and historical position. ExxonMobil’s valuation was performed using the FCFF model (Integrated and Sum of the Parts approaches) and complemented with other absolute methods, including FTE, CCF, DDM and NAV. The Company valuation is subject to significant risks. Besides the high sensitiveness to commodities price changes, energy transition is a major threat to ExxonMobil’s operations. Nevertheless, the Company is increasing its resilience, significantly investing in the development of CCS, fuels cells, hydrogen and biofuels, mitigating energy transition risks. However, reservations remain among activist shareholders considering ExxonMobil’s environmental controversies and low ESG scores, which suggest that further efforts must be made by the Company to address these issues.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts