Agent-Based Modeling Approach to Investigating the Impact of Water Demand Management

This material may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the American Society of Civil Engineers. This material may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000907This paper proposes an agent-based modeling approach to assess water users' behavior for water demand management (WDM) in a river basin. In this procedure, each agent controls its own strategy regarding whether to conserve or consume more water in order to achieve a better economic return based on an initial allocation scheme. The effects of agents' behaviors on their own economic returns and the aggregated impacts of individual behavior on the system are investigated. A positive incentive given to water conservers encourages agents to implement WDM strategies, which in turn improve water use efficiency. A case study using this new agent-based approach reveals that agricultural users are the main contributors to water conservation. Compensation given to water conservers more than covers the benefit loss from lower water consumption, whereas other users gain benefits from the use of the conserved water. The results also indicate that the implementation of WDM strategies is beneficial for the overall system from both economic and ecological perspectives.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of CanadaChina Scholarship Council [201206710003

Linking Attitudes, Policy, and Forest Cover Change in Buffer Zone Communities of Chitwan National Park, Nepal

Deforestation in Nepal threatens the functioning of complex social-ecological systems, including rural populations that depend on forests for subsistence, as well as Nepal’s biodiversity and other ecosystem services. Reliance on forest resources, coupled with high population densities and rates of growth, highlights the importance of studying the relationship between human communities, forest cover and trends through time, and forest management institutions. A Master Plan for Nepal’s Forestry Sector (MPFS), enacted in 1989, laid the foundation for modern community-based forest management in Nepal. In 2014, the MPFS reached the end of its 25-year lifespan, after successfully ushering in significant institutional changes that fundamentally transformed the management of Nepal’s forests, mostly through devolving management and benefits from the national level to local communities. Here, we examine the effectiveness of the MPFS to offer insight into this complex coupled human and natural system. Using remote sensing techniques and Landsat satellite imagery, the 25-year anniversary of the MPFS was used to explore forest cover trends in the buffer zone Village Development Committees surrounding Chitwan National Park (CNP). An in-country household survey was then conducted to: (1) understand how local attitudes toward forest conservation-related behaviors correlated with empirical forest cover trends; and (2) understand which socio-demographic variables influenced supportive attitudes. The survey was conducted in two rural communities in southern Nepal—one that has experienced significant forest loss, the other forest gain—compare with forest cover trends as indicated by the results from Chapter 1. Lastly, we used an agent-based model (ABM) to explore what effect village attitudes toward forest conservation would have on the extent of forest cover if improved policies are implemented, population growth rate fluctuates, and villages are able to cooperate by mimicking each other’s attitudes and behaviors. Results suggest that since the MPFS was enacted, there was first a continued decrease in forest cover, followed by a significant increase overall. Survey results suggest a significant difference in attitudes toward forest conservation in the two areas studied, and in both study sites, participation in community forestry strengthened support for conservation, supportive forest conservation-related attitudes aligned with forest cover gain in recent years, and a negative relationship was found between economic status and having supportive attitudes. Additionally, on average, respondents did not feel that the current national political climate in Nepal supported sustainable forestry. The results from the ABM suggest that improving forest-related policies would have a dramatic effect on the forest cover over time, the ability for villages to cooperate will likely have little effect on forest cover, and population growth rate will likely have a significant effect on forest extent. We also found that despite clear strengths, there are challenges with using ABM to model forest conservation dynamics and land use/land cover change at different scales. These data offer insight into the success of modern community-based forest management policies and supporting institutions, and are especially important as Nepal’s Master Plan for the Forestry Sector has expired and the country is in the process of structuring a new Forestry Sector Strategy

Social Learning in Repeated Cooperation Games in Uncertain Environments

Cooperation and social learning are fundamental mechanisms that maintain social organisation among animals and humans. Social institutions can be conceptualised abstractly as cooperation games with social learning. In some ca ses potential cooperation partners may be easily identifiable, while in other cases this is difficult. Real world institutions always operate in uncertain environments. Here we use agent - based simulation to explore the interaction between social learning, cooperation and environmental uncertainty with and without easy to identify cooperation partners. Our agents use a communication language to indicate their cooperation intentions. We discuss the measurement of communication or language complexity metrics, which may be used as correlates of the level of cooperation. The results show that more uncertainty induces more cooperation and that social learning increases the level of cooperation. We show that the positive impact of social learning is bigger in low u ncertainty environments than in high uncertainty environments and also in cases where identification of potential cooperation partners is harder. The results suggest that environmental uncertainty, social learning and easy identification of cooperation par tners may play alternating roles in the promotion of cooperation in social institutions and the expansion and development of these institutions

Matrix representations of the inverse problem in the graph model for conflict resolution

The final publication is available at Elsevier via https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.03.007 © 2018. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Given the final individual stability for each decision maker or an equilibrium of interest, a matrix-based method for an inverse analysis is developed in order to calculate all of the possible preferences for each decision maker creating the stability results based on the Nash, general metarationality, symmetric meta rationality, or sequential stability definition of possible human interactions in a conflict. The matrix representations are furnished for the relative preferences, unilateral movements and improvements, as well as joint movements and joint improvements for a conflict having two or more decision makers. Theoretical conditions are derived for specifying required preference relationships in an inverse graph model. Under each of the four solution concepts, a matrix relationship is established to obtain all the available preferences for each decision maker causing the specific state to be an equilibrium. To explain how it can be employed in practice, this new approach to inverse analysis is applied to the Elsipogtog First Nation fracking dispute which took place in the Canadian Province of New Brunswick.National Natural Science Foundation of China [71371098, 71471087, 71301060, 71071077]Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics [BCXJ15-10]Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaJiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education [KYZZ15_0093

Many-objective design of reservoir systems - Applications to the Blue Nile

This work proposes a multi-criteria optimization-based approach for supporting the negotiated design of multireservoir systems. The research addresses the multi-reservoir system design problem (selecting among alternative options, reservoir sizing), the capacity expansion problem (timing the activation of new assets and the filling of new large reservoirs) and management of multi-reservoir systems at various expansion stages. The aim is to balance multiple long and short-term performance objectives of relevance to stakeholders with differing interests. The work also investigates how problem re-formulations can be used to improve computational efficiency at the design and assessment stage and proposes a framework for post-processing of many objective optimization results to facilitate negotiation among multiple stakeholders. The proposed methods are demonstrated using the Blue Nile in a suite of proof-of-concept studies. Results take the form of Pareto-optimal trade-offs where each point on the curve or surface represents the design of water resource systems (i.e., asset choice, size, implementation dates of reservoirs, and operating policy) and coordination strategies (e.g., cost sharing and power trade) where further benefits in one measure necessarily come at the expense of another. Technical chapters aim to offer practical Nile management and/or investment recommendations deriving from the analysis which could be refined in future more detailed studies

Cross-Border Collaboration in Disaster Management

Wenn sich eine Katastrophe ereignet, ist eine schnelle und koordinierte Reaktion der verschiedenen Krisenmanagementakteure unerlässlich, um die vorhandenen Ressourcen bestmöglich einzusetzen und somit ihre Auswirkungen zu begrenzen. Dieses Zusammenspiel wird erschwert, wenn die Katastrophe mehrere Länder betrifft. Neben den unterschiedlichen Regelungen und Systemen spielen dann auch kulturelle Einflüsse wie Sprachbarrieren oder mangelndes Vertrauen eine entscheidende Rolle. Obwohl die Resilienz von Grenzgebieten von fundamentaler Bedeutung ist, wird diese in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur immer noch unterschätzt. Im ersten Teil dieser Arbeit wird ein agentenbasiertes Modell zur Untersuchung der organisationsübergreifenden Zusammenarbeit bei Katastropheneinsätzen in einer Grenzregion vorgestellt. Indem Kommunikationsprotokolle aus der Literatur auf den Kontext der grenzüberschreitenden Kooperation erweitert werden, analysiert das Modell die globale Dynamik, die aus lokalen Entscheidungen resultiert. Ein szenariobasierter Ansatz zeigt, dass höheres Vertrauen zwar zu signifikant besseren Versorgungsraten führt, der Abbau von Sprachbarrieren aber noch effizienter ist. Insbesondere gilt dies, wenn die Akteure die Sprache des Nachbarlandes direkt sprechen, anstatt sich auf eine allgemeine Lingua franca zu verlassen. Die Untersuchung der Koordination zeigt, dass Informationsflüsse entlang der hierarchischen Organisationsstruktur am erfolgreichsten sind, während spontane Zusammenarbeit durch ein etabliertes informelles Netzwerk privater Kontakte den Informationsaustausch ergänzen und in dynamischen Umgebungen einen Vorteil darstellen kann. Darüber hinaus verdoppelt die Einbindung von Spontanfreiwilligen den Koordinationsaufwand. Die Koordination über beide Dimensionen, zum einen die Einbindung in den Katastrophenschutz und zum anderen über Grenzen hinweg, führt jedoch zu einer optimalen Versorgung der betroffenen Bevölkerung. In einem zweiten Teil stellt diese Arbeit ein innovatives empirisches Studiendesign vor, das auf transnationalem Sozialkapital und Weiners Motivationstheorie basiert, um prosoziale Beziehungen der Menschen über nationale Grenzen hinweg zu quantifizieren. Regionale Beziehungen innerhalb der Länder werden dabei als Vergleichsbasis genommen. Die mittels repräsentativer Telefoninterviews in Deutschland, Frankreich und der deutsch-französischen Grenzregion erhobenen Daten belegen die Hypothese, dass das Sozialkapital und die Hilfsbereitschaft über die deutsch-französische Grenze hinweg mindestens so hoch ist wie das regionale Sozialkapital und die Hilfsbereitschaft innerhalb der jeweiligen Länder. Folglich liefert die Arbeit wertvolle Erkenntnisse für Entscheidungsträger, um wesentliche Barrieren in der grenzüberschreitenden Kooperation abzubauen und damit die grenzüberschreitende Resilienz bei zukünftigen Katastrophen zu verbessern. Implikationen für die heutige Zeit in Bezug auf Globalisierung versus aufkommendem Nationalismus sowie Auswirkungen von (Natur-) Katastrophen werden diskutiert

Towards simulating the emergence of environmentally responsible behavior among natural resource users : an integration of complex systems theory, machine learning and geographic information science

La gouvernance pour le développement durable comporte de nombreux défis. L'un de ces défis consiste à mieux comprendre les systèmes socio-écologiques gouvernés. Dans de tels systèmes, l'apprentissage par essais et erreurs implique le risque de conséquences inattendues, irréversibles et néfastes. De plus, en raison de la complexité des systèmes socio-écologiques, les leçons tirées d'expériences à petite échelle ne peuvent pas toujours être applicables à des problèmes à grande échelle. Un autre aspect difficile des problèmes de développement durable est que ces problèmes sont souvent multidisciplinaires et composés de composants qui sont chacun étudiés individuellement dans une discipline différente, mais il existe peu d'informations sur leur comportement ensemble. Un troisième défi de la gouvernance pour le développement durable est qu'il est souvent nécessaire d'impliquer les parties prenantes dans des actions de gestion et des mesures d'intervention coûteuses pour les individus qui y participent. De plus, dans de nombreuses situations de ce type, les incitations financières et l'application des réglementations se soldent par un échec et ne constituent donc pas des options de gouvernance. Dans cette thèse, les défis ci-dessus sont abordés dans un exemple de contrôle des perturbations forestières avec une approche intégrée. Pour éviter le problème des effets indésirables irréversibles et pour permettre des expériences répétées, une approche de simulation est utilisée. Pour relever le défi de la multidisciplinarité des problèmes des systèmes socio-écologiques, deux modèles sont développés indépendamment - portant sur les aspects sociaux et écologiques du système de l'étude - et ils sont ensuite couplés de telle sorte que la sortie de chaque modèle est utilisée comme entrée pour l'autre modèle. Pour résoudre le problème de l'engagement des parties prenantes, un plan est proposé pour la promotion d'un comportement respectueux de l'environnement. Ce plan est basé sur l'offre de reconnaissance à ceux qui adoptent volontairement le comportement responsable. Le modèle écologique de cette étude, qui simule la propagation d'une perturbation forestière, est construit à l'aide de l’apprentissage automatique supervisé. Le modèle social de cette étude, qui simule l'émergence d'une nouvelle norme de comportement, est construit à l'aide de l'apprentissage par renforcement. Les deux modèles sont testés et validés avant couplage. Le modèle couplé est ensuite utilisé comme un laboratoire virtuel, où plusieurs expériences sont réalisées dans un cadre hypothétique et selon différents scénarios. Chacune de ces expériences est une simulation. A travers ces simulations, cette étude montre qu'avec un algorithme de prise de décision approprié et avec suffisamment de temps pour l'interaction entre une entité gouvernante et la société, il est possible de créer une motivation pour un comportement responsable dans la société. En d'autres termes, il est possible d'encourager la participation volontaire des acteurs à l'action pour le développement durable, sans que l'entité gouvernante ait besoin d'utiliser des incitations financières ou d'imposer son autorité. Ces résultats peuvent être applicables à d'autres contextes où un comportement responsable des individus ou des entreprises est recherché afin d'atténuer l'impact d'une perturbation, de protéger une ressource écologique, ou de faciliter une transition sectorielle vers la durabilité.Governance for sustainable development involves many challenges. One of those challenges is to gain insight about the social-ecological systems being governned. In such systems, learning by trial and error involve the risk of unexpected, irreversible and adverse consequences. Moreover, due to complexity of social-ecological systems, lessons learned from small scale experiments may not be applicable in large-scale problems. Another challenging aspect of problems of sustainable development is that these problems are often multidisciplinary and comprised of components that are each studied individually in a different discipline, but little information exists about their behavior together as a whole. A third challenge in governance for sustainable development is that often it is necessary to involve stakeholders in management actions and intervention measures that are costly for individuals who participate in them. Moreover, in many of these situations financial incentives or enforcement of regulations result in failure, and are thus not options for governance. In this thesis, the above challenges are addressed in an example case of forest disturbance control with an integrated approach. To avoid the problem of irreversible adverse effects and to allow repeated experiments, a simulation approach is used. To tackle the challenge of multidisciplinarity of problems of social-ecological systems, two models are independently developed – pertaining to social and ecological aspects of the system of the study – and they are subsequently coupled in such a way that the output of each model served as an input for the other. To address the problem of engagement of stakeholders, a scheme is proposed for promotion of environmentally responsible behavior. This scheme is based on offering recognition to those who voluntarily perform the responsible behavior. The ecological model of this study, which simulates the spread of a forest disturbance, is built using Supervised Machine Learning. The social model of this study, which simulates the emergence of a new norm of behavior, is built using Reinforcement Learning. Both models are tested and validated before coupling. The coupled model is then used as a virtual laboratory, where several experiments are performed in a hypothetical setting and under various scenarios. Each such experiment is a simulation. Through these simulations, this study shows that with an appropriate decision-making algorithm and with sufficient time for interaction between a governing entity and the society, it is possible to create motivation for responsible behavior in the society. In other words, it is possible to encourage voluntary participation of stakeholders in action for sustainable development, without the need for the governing entity to use financial incentives or impose its authority. These results may be applicable to other contexts where responsible behavior by individuals or enterprises is sought in order to mitigate the impact of a disturbance, protect an ecological resource, or facilitate a sectoral transition towards sustainability

Basin-wide Water Demand Management: Transfers and Compensation among Competing Users

Water demand management is incorporated into a two-step water allocation process in order to motivate water users to implement water demand management strategies. In the first step, the initial allocation of water is based on existing water rights systems or agreements to form a baseline scenario for the next step involving the adoption of water demand management strategies. In the second step, two principles are identified for water demand management: either to increase aggregated benefits given the currently available water or to decrease aggregated water consumption while achieving benefits not less than the current ones. These two principles are considered in depth in this research in the development of various water demand management methodologies. Within the first principle, a centralized basin-wide hydrologic-economic optimization model is designed to motivate certain users to conserve water in order to maximize the total net benefits of the river basin system, and then to allocate additional net benefits using cooperative game theory. The optimal aggregated net benefits with and without water demand management plans for various coalitions of users subject to physical, policy and water availability constraints are obtained. A modified cooperative reallocation game is developed to distribute additional net benefits such that positive economic gains are provided to users. From a decentralized viewpoint, agent-based modeling techniques are utilized to simulate water users’ behavioral responses to water demand management strategies. Within the agent-based framework, each user individually decides whether or not to conserve water or to consume more water; water conservers are compensated while water consumers are charged. Incentive functions are introduced to calculate how much to compensate or how much to charge. Individual optimization problems are designed for each water user who considers the maximization of its own benefits as the primary objective. Coordination procedures are developed to reach the system-wide maximum net benefits objective. To achieve the second principle, a centralized conservation-targeted hydrologic-economic optimization method is constructed to estimate the minimum water consumption requirement to produce the same amount of benefits in a river basin in order to better understand the present status of water use. Two formulations for representing different interpretations of water consumption are examined. The formulations take conservation limits and diverse characteristics of different users into consideration. The method is applied to the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in southern Alberta, Canada, where water scarcity is a severe issue. The foregoing approaches within each of the two principles are applied to illustrative case studies to facilitate a better understanding of the impact of water demand management on individual users and the overall system, and how to encourage water users to utilize water wisely. Meaningful insights are provided for achieving better water demand management to mitigate the stress brought by the dramatically increasing demand