State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science

Information asset analysis: credit scoring and credit suggestion

Risk assessment is important for financial institutions, especially in loan applications. Some have already implemented their own credit-scoring mechanisms to evaluate their clients' risk and make decisions based on this indicator. In fact, the data gathered by financial institutions is a valuable source of information to create information assets, from which credit-scoring mechanisms can be developed. The purpose of this paper is to create, from information assets, a decision mechanism that is able to evaluate a client's risk. Furthermore, a suggestive algorithm is presented to better explain and give insights on how the decision mechanism values attributes

Deep neural network for load forecasting centred on architecture evolution

Nowadays, electricity demand forecasting is critical for electric utility companies. Accurate residential load forecasting plays an essential role as an individual component for integrated areas such as neighborhood load consumption. Short-term load forecasting can help electric utility companies reduce waste because electric power is expensive to store. This paper proposes a novel method to evolve deep neural networks for time series forecasting applied to residential load forecasting. The approach centres its efforts on the neural network architecture during the evolution. Then, the model weights are adjusted using an evolutionary optimization technique to tune the model performance automatically. Experimental results on a large dataset containing hourly load consumption of a residence in London, Ontario shows that the performance of unadjusted weights architecture is comparable to other state-of-the-art approaches. Furthermore, when the architecture weights are adjusted the model accuracy surpassed the state-of-the-art method called LSTM one shot by 3.0%

Short-term forecasting photovoltaic solar power for home energy management systems

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is crucial to achieving massive PV integration in several areas, which is needed to successfully reduce or eliminate carbon dioxide from energy sources. This paper deals with short-term multi-step PV power forecasts used in model-based predictive control for home energy management systems. By employing radial basis function (RBFs) artificial neural networks (ANN), designed using a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) with data selected by an approximate convex-hull algorithm, it is shown that excellent forecasting results can be obtained. Two case studies are used: a special house located in the USA, and the other a typical residential house situated in the south of Portugal. In the latter case, one-step-ahead values for unscaled root mean square error (RMSE), mean relative error (MRE), normalized mean average error (NMAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and R2 of 0.16, 1.27%, 1.22%, 8% and 0.94 were obtained, respectively. These results compare very favorably with existing alternatives found in the literature.Programa Operacional Portugal 2020 and Operational Program CRESC Algarve 2020 grant 01/SAICT/2018. Antonio Ruano acknowledges the support of Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, through IDMEC, under LAETA, grant UIDB/50022/2020.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A Review of Harmful Algal Bloom Prediction Models for Lakes and Reservoirs

Anthropogenic activity has led to eutrophication in water bodies across the world. This eutrophication promotes blooms, cyanobacteria being among the most notorious bloom organisms. Cyanobacterial blooms (more commonly referred to as harmful algal blooms (HABs)) can devastate an ecosystem. Cyanobacteria are resilient microorganisms that have adapted to survive under a variety of conditions, often outcompeting other phytoplankton. Some species of cyanobacteria produce toxins that ward off predators. These toxins can negatively affect the health of the aquatic life, but also can impact animals and humans that drink or come in contact with these noxious waters. Although cyanotoxin’s effects on humans are not as well researched as the growth, behavior, and ecological niche of cyanobacteria, their health impacts are of large concern. It is important that research to mitigate and understand cyanobacterial blooms and cyanotoxin production continues. This project supports continued research by addressing an approach to collect and summarize published articles that focus on techniques and models to predict cyanobacterial blooms with the goal of understanding what research has been done to promote future work. The following report summarizes 34 articles from 2003 to 2020 that each describe a mechanistic or data driven model developed to predict the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms or the presence of cyanotoxins in lakes or reservoirs with similar climates to Utah. These articles showed a shift from more mechanistic approaches to more data driven approaches with time. This resulted in a more individualistic approach to modeling, meaning that models are often produced for a single lake or reservoir and are not easily comparable to other models for different systems

Data Driven Model Improved by Multi-Objective Optimisation for Prediction of Building Energy Loads

Machine learning (ML) has been recognised as a powerful method for modelling building energy consumption. The capability of ML to provide a fast and accurate prediction of energy loads makes it an ideal tool for decision-making tasks related to sustainable design and retrofit planning. However, the accuracy of these ML models is dependent on the selection of the right hyper-parameters for a specific building dataset. This paper proposes a method for optimising ML models for forecasting both heating and cooling loads. The technique employs multi-objective optimisation with evolutionary algorithms to search the space of possible parameters. The proposed approach not only tunes single model to precisely predict building energy loads but also accelerates the process of model optimisation. The study utilises simulated building energy data generated in EnergyPlus to validate the proposed method, and compares the outcomes with the regular ML tuning procedure (i.e. grid search). The optimised model provides a reliable tool for building designers and engineers to explore a large space of the available building materials and technologies

A non-deterministic approach to forecasting the trophic evolution of lakes

Limnologists have long recognized that one of the goals of their discipline is to increase its predictive capability. In recent years, the role of prediction in applied ecology escalated, mainly due to man\u27s increased ability to change the biosphere. Such alterations often came with unplanned and noticeably negative side effects mushrooming from lack of proper attention to long-term consequences. Regression analysis of common limnological parameters has been successfully applied to develop predictive models relating the variability of limnological parameters to specific key causes. These approaches, though, are biased by the requirement of a priori cause-relation assumption, oftentimes difficult to find in the complex, nonlinear relationships entangling ecological data. A set of quantitative tools that can help addressing current environmental challenges avoiding such restrictions is currently being researched and developed within the framework of ecological informatics. One of these approaches attempting to model the relationship between a set of inputs and known outputs, is based on genetic algorithms and programming (GP). This stochastic optimization tool is based on the process of evolution in natural systems and was inspired by a direct analogy to sexual reproduction and Charles Darwin\u27s principle of natural selection. GP works through genetic algorithms that use selection and recombination operators to generate a population of equations. Thanks to a 25-years long time-series of regular limnological data, the deep, large, oligotrophic Lake Maggiore (Northern Italy) is the ideal case study to test the predictive ability of GP. Testing of GP on the multi-year data series of this lake has allowed us to verify the forecasting efficacy of the models emerging from GP application. In addition, this non-deterministic approach leads to the discovery of non-obvious relationships between variables and enabled the formulation of new stochastic models

Design of ensemble forecasting models for home energy management systems

The increasing levels of energy consumption worldwide is raising issues with respect to surpassing supply limits, causing severe effects on the environment, and the exhaustion of energy resources. Buildings are one of the most relevant sectors in terms of energy consumption; as such, efficient Home or Building Management Systems are an important topic of research. This study discusses the use of ensemble techniques in order to improve the performance of artificial neural networks models used for energy forecasting in residential houses. The case study is a residential house, located in Portugal, that is equipped with PV generation and battery storage and controlled by a Home Energy Management System (HEMS). It has been shown that the ensemble forecasting results are superior to single selected models, which were already excellent. A simple procedure was proposed for selecting the models to be used in the ensemble, together with a heuristic to determine the number of models.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio