Coordinated Transit Response Planning and Operations Support Tools for Mitigating Impacts of All-Hazard Emergency Events

This report summarizes current computer simulation capabilities and the availability of near-real-time data sources allowing for a novel approach of analyzing and determining optimized responses during disruptions of complex multi-agency transit system. The authors integrated a number of technologies and data sources to detect disruptive transit system performance issues, analyze the impact on overall system-wide performance, and statistically apply the likely traveler choices and responses. The analysis of unaffected transit resources and the provision of temporary resources are then analyzed and optimized to minimize overall impact of the initiating event

Safety Related Challenges when Designing Sustainable Cities

The transition towards sustainable city planning is challenging from many perspectives, e.g. the speed of development towards fossil free fuels and updating of regulations for controlling risk in the transport infrastructure do not manage to keep an even pace. This applies both at the detailed level regarding technical design requirements and on a more comprehensive performance level of safety objectives that can be verified to confirm compliance with society's safety objectives. This paper presents challenges, experiences and results in connection with the analysis of the risks associated with an underground bus terminal operated with gas-powered buses. A risk analysis approach used in an ongoing project in the final stage of the planning process, which makes it possible to discuss experiences and difficulties based on work in practice. Two main types of injury are studied; fire and explosion, where people can be exposed to both high temperatures, toxic smoke, radiation, pressure waves and impact by flying debris. Fire, may occur with ignition of combustible gas mixture (in air). It can be noted that an underground bus terminal operated by gas-powered buses constitutes a complex facility from a risk perspective and that the risk level without special consideration for additional safety measures is expected to be high. Therefore, a safety concept is required that is balanced between different types of measures, such as supervision, control and safety enhancing installations as well as inherent passive protection

Zone-based, robust flood evacuation planning

We consider the problem to evacuate several regions due to river flooding, where suffi- cient time is given to plan ahead. To ensure a smooth evacuation procedure, our model includes the decision which regions to assign to which shelter, and when evacuation orders should be issued, such that roads do not become congested. Due to uncertainty in weather forecast, several possible scenarios are simultaneously considered in a robust optimization framework. To solve the resulting integer program, we apply a Tabu search algorithm based on decomposing the problem into better tractable subproblems. Computational experiments on random instances and an instance based on Kulmbach, Germany, data show considerable improvement compared to an MIP solver provided with a strong starting solutio

Complex Actions for Event Processing

Automatic reactions triggered by complex events have been deployed with great success in particular domains, among others, in algorithmic trading, the automatic reaction to realtime analysis of marked data. However, to date, reactions in complex event processing systems are often still limited to mere modifications of internal databases or are realized by means similar to remote procedure calls. In this paper, we argue that expressive complex actions with support for composite work ows and integration of so called external actions are desirable for a wide range of real-world applications among other emergency management. This article investigates the particularities of external actions needed in emergency management, which are initiated inside the event processing system but which are actually executed by external actuators, and discuss the implications of these particularities on composite actions. Based on these observations, we propose versatile complex actions with temporal dependencies and a seamless integration of complex events and external actions. This article also investigates how the proposed integrated approach towards complex events and complex actions can be evaluated based on simple reactive rules. Finally, it is shown how complex actions can be deployed for a complex event processing system devoted to emergency management

A memetic algorithm for location-routing problem with time windows for the attention of seismic disasters a case study from Bucaramanga, Colombia

Introduction− In recent years, a great part of the population has been affected by natural and man-caused disasters. Hence, evacua-tion planning has an important role in the reduction of the number of victims during a natural disaster. Objective−In order to contribute to current studies of operations research in disaster management, this paper addresses evacuation planning of urban areas by using buses to pick up affected people after an earthquake.Methodology−The situation is modeled using Location-Routing Problem with Time Windows (LRPTW) to locate emergency shelters and identify evacuation routes that meet attention time constraints. To solve the LRPTW problem, a memetic algorithm (MA) is de-signed to minimize the total response time during an evacuation. The algorithm is not only validated using instances of literature, but also with the assessment of a case study of a seismic event in Bucaramanga, Colombia.Results and conclusions− The main contribution of this article is the development of a memetic algorithm for the solution of the proposed model that allows to solve real-size instances. The hybrid initialization of the MA prevents an early convergence by combin-ing randomness and a heuristic technique. Computational results indicate that the MA is a viable approach for the LRPTW solution. Likewise, a case study is presented for the city of Bucaramanga in order to validate the proposed model. Two scenarios are simulated showing that the management of the time windows (homogeneous or random) directly influences the solution and affects the objec-tive function. From a practical perspective, the location-routing problem must consider other criteria such as the cost of evacua-tion, including the attention delay cost, and the cost of opening shelters and routing.Introducción− En años recientes gran parte de la población ha sido afectada por desastres tanto naturales como antrópicos. Por esto, la planificación de la evacuación juega un papel importante en la reduc-ción del número de víctimas ante un desastre natural. Objetivo− Con el propósito de contribuir a los estudios actuales desde la investigación de operaciones en gestión de desastres, esta inves-tigación aborda la planificación de la evacuación de áreas urbanas usando buses para recoger afectados.Metodología− El problema se modela mediante un problema de localización-ruteo con ventanas de tiempo (LRPTW) para determinar el número y la ubicación de los albergues las y rutas de recolección para evacuación, cumpliendo restricciones en tiempo de atención. Para solucionar el LRPTW, se diseña un algoritmo memético (MA) que minimiza el tiempo total de respuesta en la evacuación. El algo-ritmo es validado en instancias de la literatura y mediante un caso de estudio de un evento sísmico en Bucaramanga (Colombia).Resultados y conclusiones− La contribución principal de este ar-tículo es el desarrollo de un MA para solucionar el modelo propuesto, que permite resolver instancias de tamaño real. La inicialización híbrida del MA evita una convergencia temprana, combinando alea-toriedad con una técnica heurística. Los resultados computacionales indican que el MA es un enfoque viable para solucionar el LRPTW. Así mismo, se presenta un caso de estudio en Bucaramanga para validar el modelo propuesto. Se plantean dos escenarios de desastre, evidenciando que el tratamiento que se da a las ventanas de tiempo (homogénea o aleatoria) influye directamente en la solución y afec-ta la función objetivo. Desde un enfoque práctico, el problema debe considerar otros criterios que pueden influir en la planificación de la evacuación, como el costo de la evacuación, costo de la demora en la atención, costo de apertura y de ruteo

Un algoritmo memético para el problema de localización-ruteo con ventanas de tiempo para la atención de desastres sísmicos: un caso de estudio de Bucaramanga, Colombia

Introduction: In recent years, a great part of the population has been affected by natural and man-caused disasters. Hence, evacuation planning has an important role in the reduction of the number of victims during a natural disaster. Objective: In order to contribute to current studies of operations research in disaster management, this paper addresses evacuation planning of urban areas by using buses to pick up affected people after an earthquake. Methodology: The situation is modeled using Location-Routing Problem with Time Windows (LRPTW) to locate emergency shelters and identify evacuation routes that meet attention time constraints. To solve the LRPTW problem, a memetic algorithm (MA) is designed to minimize the total response time during an evacuation. The algorithm is not only validated using instances of literature but also with the assessment of a case study of a seismic event in Bucaramanga, Colombia. Results and conclusions: The main contribution of this article is the development of a memetic algorithm for the solution of the proposed model that allows to solve real-size instances. The hybrid initialization of the MA prevents an early convergence by combining randomness and a heuristic technique. Computational results indicate that the MA is a viable approach for the LRPTW solution. Likewise, a case study is presented for the city of Bucaramanga in order to validate the proposed model. Two scenarios are simulated showing that the management of the time windows (homogeneous or random) directly influences the solution and affects the objective function. From a practical perspective, the location-routing problem must consider other criteria such as the cost of evacuation, including the attention delay cost, and the cost of opening shelters and routing.Introducción: En años recientes gran parte de la población ha sido afectada por desastres tanto naturales como antrópicos. Por esto, la planificación de la evacuación juega un papel importante en la reducción del número de víctimas ante un desastre natural. Objetivo: Con el propósito de contribuir a los estudios actuales desde la investigación de operaciones en gestión de desastres, esta investigación aborda la planificación de la evacuación de áreas urbanas usando buses para recoger afectados. Metodología: El problema se modela mediante un problema de localización-ruteo con ventanas de tiempo (LRPTW) para determinar el número y la ubicación de los albergues las y rutas de recolección para evacuación, cumpliendo restricciones en tiempo de atención. Para solucionar el LRPTW, se diseña un algoritmo memético (MA) que minimiza el tiempo total de respuesta en la evacuación. El algoritmo es validado en instancias de la literatura y mediante un caso de estudio de un evento sísmico en Bucaramanga (Colombia). Resultados y conclusiones: La contribución principal de este artículo es el desarrollo de un MA para solucionar el modelo propuesto, que permite resolver instancias de tamaño real. La inicialización híbrida del MA evita una convergencia temprana, combinando aleatoriedad con una técnica heurística. Los resultados computacionales indican que el MA es un enfoque viable para solucionar el LRPTW. Así mismo, se presenta un caso de estudio en Bucaramanga para validar el modelo propuesto. Se plantean dos escenarios de desastre, evidenciando que el tratamiento que se da a las ventanas de tiempo (homogénea o aleatoria) influye directamente en la solución y afecta la función objetivo. Desde un enfoque práctico, el problema debe considerar otros criterios que pueden influir en la planificación de la evacuación, como el costo de la evacuación, costo de la demora en la atención, costo de apertura y de ruteo

Fair Resource Allocation in Macroscopic Evacuation Planning Using Mathematical Programming: Modeling and Optimization

Evacuation is essential in the case of natural and manmade disasters such as hurricanes, nuclear disasters, fire accidents, and terrorism epidemics. Random evacuation plans can increase risks and incur more losses. Hence, numerous simulation and mathematical programming models have been developed over the past few decades to help transportation planners make decisions to reduce costs and protect lives. However, the dynamic transportation process is inherently complex. Thus, modeling this process can be challenging and computationally demanding. The objective of this dissertation is to build a balanced model that reflects the realism of the dynamic transportation process and still be computationally tractable to be implemented in reality by the decision-makers. On the other hand, the users of the transportation network require reasonable travel time within the network to reach their destinations. This dissertation introduces a novel framework in the fields of fairness in network optimization and evacuation to provide better insight into the evacuation process and assist with decision making. The user of the transportation network is a critical element in this research. Thus, fairness and efficiency are the two primary objectives addressed in the work by considering the limited capacity of roads of the transportation network. Specifically, an approximation approach to the max-min fairness (MMF) problem is presented that provides lower computational time and high-quality output compared to the original algorithm. In addition, a new algorithm is developed to find the MMF resource allocation output in nonconvex structure problems. MMF is the fairness policy used in this research since it considers fairness and efficiency and gives priority to fairness. In addition, a new dynamic evacuation modeling approach is introduced that is capable of reporting more information about the evacuees compared to the conventional evacuation models such as their travel time, evacuation time, and departure time. Thus, the contribution of this dissertation is in the two areas of fairness and evacuation. The first part of the contribution of this dissertation is in the field of fairness. The objective in MMF is to allocate resources fairly among multiple demands given limited resources while utilizing the resources for higher efficiency. Fairness and efficiency are contradicting objectives, so they are translated into a bi-objective mathematical programming model and solved using the ϵ-constraint method, introduced by Vira and Haimes (1983). Although the solution is an approximation to the MMF, the model produces quality solutions, when ϵ is properly selected, in less computational time compared to the progressive-filling algorithm (PFA). In addition, a new algorithm is developed in this research called the θ progressive-filling algorithm that finds the MMF in resource allocation for general problems and works on problems with the nonconvex structure problems. The second part of the contribution is in evacuation modeling. The common dynamic evacuation models lack a piece of essential information for achieving fairness, which is the time each evacuee or group of evacuees spend in the network. Most evacuation models compute the total time for all evacuees to move from the endangered zone to the safe destination. Lack of information about the users of the transportation network is the motivation to develop a new optimization model that reports more information about the users of the network. The model finds the travel time, evacuation time, departure time, and the route selected for each group of evacuees. Given that the travel time function is a non-linear convex function of the traffic volume, the function is linearized through a piecewise linear approximation. The developed model is a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model with high complexity. Hence, the model is not capable of solving large scale problems. The complexity of the model was reduced by introducing a linear programming (LP) version of the full model. The complexity is significantly reduced while maintaining the exact output. In addition, the new θ-progressive-filling algorithm was implemented on the evacuation model to find a fair and efficient evacuation plan. The algorithm is also used to identify the optimal routes in the transportation network. Moreover, the robustness of the evacuation model was tested against demand uncertainty to observe the model behavior when the demand is uncertain. Finally, the robustness of the model is tested when the traffic flow is uncontrolled. In this case, the model's only decision is to distribute the evacuees on routes and has no control over the departure time

EVACUATION PLANS FOR NAVAL STATION NEWPORT AND AQUIDNECK ISLAND UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Aquidneck Island, RI, is vulnerable to hurricanes; hence, evacuation plans are critical to the welfare of on-island military installations and communities. Coordination among communities is important as there are few on-island shelters and evacuation will require military and civilian evacuees to egress across the same bridges. Previous work studied optimal vehicle routing to minimize clearance times and coordinate evacuation. However, past work does not consider uncertainty involved in go (evacuate)/no-go (shelter-in-place) decisions. Under hurricane conditions, high winds will force bridge closures and calling an evacuation too late forces populations to shelter-in-place. In contrast, calling an evacuation too early for threatening, non-striking storms might direct evacuees off-island toward danger. We develop a model that can consider these tensions by combining synthetic forecasts for past storms, stochastic hurricane trajectory, expected evacuation demands, and optimal routing. We apply our model to two historical storms: Hurricane Bob in 1991 and Hurricane Gloria in 1985. Results show our model performs well for striking storms by evacuating the majority of vulnerable communities. However, our model also leads to large evacuations for threatening, non-striking storms. We conclude our model forms a good basis for evacuation planning yet needs additional analysis prior to use.Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), 4800 Mark Center Drive, Suite 16F16, Alexandria, VA 22350Ensign, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited