Simulating Maritime Chokepoint Disruption in the Global Food Supply

The three food crops of wheat, maize, and rice make up almost two-thirds of the world\u27s dietary energy needs. Of these three, just six countries provide 70% of the global supply. Furthermore, soybeans account for three-quarters of global livestock feed, and only three countries provide 80% of the global supply. Considering over half of the world\u27s exported supply of these four commodities are exported via maritime means, the free ow of marine traffic becomes paramount. Current models lack the ability to capture the inherent variance displayed in the maritime transport system, which can lead to inaccurate assumptions about how the system functions - assumptions that could ultimately bring chaos to an importing economy. To capture this inherent variance, a discrete-event simulation was built to better understand how disruptions in this system impact those who rely on its unhindered functionality. Monthly export data is used, and the maritime chokepoints of the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Gibraltar are modeled for disruption. Results indicate significant food shortages for all importers studied, with some receiving 97% less of a commodity in a given month. China is particularly sensitive to a closure of the Panama Canal in the months of September - January. Egypt and Spain could expect significant food decreases if the Strait of Gibraltar were to close in any month, with Spain experiencing its worst declines should a disruption occur in September. Marine traffic through the Strait of Malacca was also significantly impacted when any of the three chokepoints studied were closed

The regional geopolitics of the strait of Gibraltar

Security of passage of the Strait of Gibraltar is an imperative for the world community. To achieve this, there must be stability on the northern and southern shores of the Strait. Peace in the region is currently threatened by the "creeping jurisdiction" which both Spain and Morocco wish to exert over the waters of the Strait. Other factors which threaten stability are the historical rivalry which exists between Spain and the Islamic southern shore; the legacy of disputed sovereignty in the Crown Colony of Gibraltar and the Spanish Plazas in North Africa; the economic divide betwen the EC and Maghreb along the Strait axis; and the possible threat of militant Islam. Contentions also exist between Morocco and Algeria, eg the Western Saharan War. The re-establishment of a strong "power hierarchy" in the area must be supported by such international instruments as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982). The Crown Colony and the Spanish Plazas must be decolonized once Spain is firmly integrated into the EC and NATO, and once Morocco has reached a level of economic and political development that is condusive to closer ties with Western institutions

Historia, evolución y perspectivas de futuro en la utilización de técnicas de simulación en la gestión portuaria: aplicaciones en el análisis de operaciones, estrategia y planificación portuaria

Programa Oficial de Doutoramento en Análise Económica e Estratexia Empresarial. 5033V0[Resumen] Las técnicas de simulación, tal y como hoy las conocemos, comenzaron a mediados del siglo XX; primero con la aparición del primer computador y el desarrollo del método Monte Carlo, y más tarde con el desarrollo del primer simulador de propósito específico conocido como GPS y desarrollado por Geoffrey Gordon en IBM y la publicación del primer texto completo dedicado a esta materia y llamado the Art of Simulation (K.D. Tocher, 1963). Estás técnicas han evolucionado de una manera extraordinaria y hoy en día están plenamente implementadas en diversos campos de actividad. Las instalaciones portuarias no han escapado de esta tendencia, especialmente las dedicadas al tráfico de contenedores. Efectivamente, las características intrínsecas de este sector económico, le hacen un candidato idóneo para la implementación de modelos de simulación con propósitos y alcances muy diversos. No existe, sin embargo y hasta lo que conocemos, un trabajo científico que compile y analice pormenorizadamente tanto la historia como la evolución de simulación en ambientes portuarios, ayudando a clasificar los mismos y determinar cómo estos pueden ayudar en el análisis económico de estas instalaciones y en la formulación de las oportunas estrategias empresariales. Este es el objetivo último de la presente tesis doctoral.[Resumo] As técnicas de simulación, tal e como hoxe as coñecemos, comezaron a mediados do século XX; primeiro coa aparición do computador e o desenvolvemento do método Monte Carlo e máis tarde co desenvolvemento do primeiro simulador de propósito específico coñecido como GPS e desenvolvido por Geoffrey Gordon en IBM e a publicación do primeiro texto completo dedicado a este tema chamado “A Arte da Simulación” (K.D. Tocher, 1963). Estas técnicas evolucionaron dun xeito extraordinario e hoxe en día están plenamente implementadas en diversos campos de actividade. As instalacións portuarias non escaparon desta tendencia, especialmente as dedicadas ao tráfico de contenedores. Efectivamente, as características intrínsecas deste sector económico, fanlle un candidato idóneo para a implementación de modelos de simulación con propósitos e alcances moi variados. Con todo, e ata o que coñecemos, non existe un traballo científico que compila e analiza de forma detallada tanto a historia como a evolución da simulación en estes ambientes portuarios, clasificando os mesmos e determinando como estes poden axudar na análise económica destas instalacións e na formulación das oportunas estratexias empresariais. Este é o último obxectivo da presente tese doutoral.[Abstract] Simulation, to the extend that we understand it nowadays, began in the middle of the 20th century; first with the appearance of the computer and the development of the Monte Carlo method, and later with the development of the first specific purpose simulator known as GPS developed by Geoffrey Gordon in IBM. This author published the first full text devoted to this subject “The Art of Simulation” in 1963. These techniques have evolved in an extraordinary way and nowadays they are fully implemented in different fields of activity. Port facilities have not escaped this trend, especially those dedicated to container traffic. Indeed, the intrinsic characteristics of this economic sector, make it a suitable candidate for the implementation of simulation with very different purposes and scope. However, to the best of our knowelegde, there is not a scientific work that compiles and analyzes in detail both, the history and the evolution of simulation in port environments, contributing to classify them and determine how they can help in the economic analysis of these facilities and in the formulation of different business strategies. This is the ultimate goal of this doctoral thesis

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk managemen

Maritime expressions:a corpus based exploration of maritime metaphors

This study uses a purpose-built corpus to explore the linguistic legacy of Britain’s maritime history found in the form of hundreds of specialised ‘Maritime Expressions’ (MEs), such as TAKEN ABACK, ANCHOR and ALOOF, that permeate modern English. Selecting just those expressions commencing with ’A’, it analyses 61 MEs in detail and describes the processes by which these technical expressions, from a highly specialised occupational discourse community, have made their way into modern English. The Maritime Text Corpus (MTC) comprises 8.8 million words, encompassing a range of text types and registers, selected to provide a cross-section of ‘maritime’ writing. It is analysed using WordSmith analytical software (Scott, 2010), with the 100 million-word British National Corpus (BNC) as a reference corpus. Using the MTC, a list of keywords of specific salience within the maritime discourse has been compiled and, using frequency data, concordances and collocations, these MEs are described in detail and their use and form in the MTC and the BNC is compared. The study examines the transformation from ME to figurative use in the general discourse, in terms of form and metaphoricity. MEs are classified according to their metaphorical strength and their transference from maritime usage into new registers and domains such as those of business, politics, sports and reportage etc. A revised model of metaphoricity is developed and a new category of figurative expression, the ‘resonator’, is proposed. Additionally, developing the work of Lakov and Johnson, Kovesces and others on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (CMT), a number of Maritime Conceptual Metaphors are identified and their cultural significance is discussed

A queueing model of maritime traffic in Bosporus Straits

The Bosporus Straits are among the most crowded and potentially dangerous, waterways in the world traversing urban areas of over 12 million people. Their narrow and winding shape, along with strong surface and counter deep water sea currents hinders the navigation. In this article, a queuing model of maritime traffic in the Bosporus Straits is presented. Physical characteristics of the waterway and applied maritime regulations are integrated into the model. In a number of scenarios, simulation of the traffic, based on a set of historical data, is performed and the corresponding results are presented. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved