Synergetic and redundant information flow detected by unnormalized Granger causality: application to resting state fMRI

Objectives: We develop a framework for the analysis of synergy and redundancy in the pattern of information flow between subsystems of a complex network. Methods: The presence of redundancy and/or synergy in multivariate time series data renders difficult to estimate the neat flow of information from each driver variable to a given target. We show that adopting an unnormalized definition of Granger causality one may put in evidence redundant multiplets of variables influencing the target by maximizing the total Granger causality to a given target, over all the possible partitions of the set of driving variables. Consequently we introduce a pairwise index of synergy which is zero when two independent sources additively influence the future state of the system, differently from previous definitions of synergy. Results: We report the application of the proposed approach to resting state fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project, showing that redundant pairs of regions arise mainly due to space contiguity and interhemispheric symmetry, whilst synergy occurs mainly between non-homologous pairs of regions in opposite hemispheres. Conclusions: Redundancy and synergy, in healthy resting brains, display characteristic patterns, revealed by the proposed approach. Significance: The pairwise synergy index, here introduced, maps the informational character of the system at hand into a weighted complex network: the same approach can be applied to other complex systems whose normal state corresponds to a balance between redundant and synergetic circuits.Comment: 6 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1403.515

GPU Accelerated Particle Visualization with Splotch

Splotch is a rendering algorithm for exploration and visual discovery in particle-based datasets coming from astronomical observations or numerical simulations. The strengths of the approach are production of high quality imagery and support for very large-scale datasets through an effective mix of the OpenMP and MPI parallel programming paradigms. This article reports our experiences in re-designing Splotch for exploiting emerging HPC architectures nowadays increasingly populated with GPUs. A performance model is introduced for data transfers, computations and memory access, to guide our re-factoring of Splotch. A number of parallelization issues are discussed, in particular relating to race conditions and workload balancing, towards achieving optimal performances. Our implementation was accomplished by using the CUDA programming paradigm. Our strategy is founded on novel schemes achieving optimized data organisation and classification of particles. We deploy a reference simulation to present performance results on acceleration gains and scalability. We finally outline our vision for future work developments including possibilities for further optimisations and exploitation of emerging technologies.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures. Astronomy and Computing (2014

XRIndex:a brief screening tool for individual differences in security threat detection in x-ray images

X-ray imaging is a cost-effective technique at security checkpoints that typically require the presence of human operators. We have previously shown that self-reported attention to detail can predict threat detection performance with small-vehicle x-ray images (Rusconi et al., 2012). Here, we provide evidence for the generality of such a link by having a large sample of naïve participants screen more typical dual-energy x-ray images of hand luggage. The results show that the Attention to Detail score from the autism-spectrum quotient (AQ) questionnaire (Baron-Cohen et al., 2001) is a linear predictor of threat detection accuracy. We then develop and fine-tune a novel self-report scale for security screening: the XRIndex, which improves on the Attention to Detail scale for predictive power and opacity to interpretation. The XRIndex is not redundant with any of the Big Five personality traits. We validate the XRIndex against security x-ray images with an independent sample of untrained participants and suggest that the XRIndex may be a useful aid for the identification of suitable candidates for professional security training with a focus on x-ray threat detection. Further studies are needed to determine whether this can also apply to trained professionals

Detecting and quantifying causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets

Identifying causal relationships and quantifying their strength from observational time series data are key problems in disciplines dealing with complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system or the human body. Data-driven causal inference in such systems is challenging since datasets are often high dimensional and nonlinear with limited sample sizes. Here, we introduce a novel method that flexibly combines linear or nonlinear conditional independence tests with a causal discovery algorithm to estimate causal networks from large-scale time series datasets. We validate the method on time series of well-understood physical mechanisms in the climate system and the human heart and using large-scale synthetic datasets mimicking the typical properties of real-world data. The experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in detection power, which opens up entirely new possibilities to discover and quantify causal networks from time series across a range of research fields

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation