Multi-energy retail market simulation with autonomous intelligent agents

Tese de doutoramento. Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores. 2005. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Port

Computational intelligence techniques in asset risk analysis

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.The problem of asset risk analysis is positioned within the computational intelligence paradigm. We suggest an algorithm for reformulating asset pricing, which involves incorporating imprecise information into the pricing factors through fuzzy variables as well as a calibration procedure for their possibility distributions. Then fuzzy mathematics is used to process the imprecise factors and obtain an asset evaluation. This evaluation is further automated using neural networks with sign restrictions on their weights. While such type of networks has been only used for up to two network inputs and hypothetical data, here we apply thirty-six inputs and empirical data. To achieve successful training, we modify the Levenberg-Marquart backpropagation algorithm. The intermediate result achieved is that the fuzzy asset evaluation inherits features of the factor imprecision and provides the basis for risk analysis. Next, we formulate a risk measure and a risk robustness measure based on the fuzzy asset evaluation under different characteristics of the pricing factors as well as different calibrations. Our database, extracted from DataStream, includes thirty-five companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. For each company, the risk and robustness measures are evaluated and an asset risk analysis is carried out through these values, indicating the implications they have on company performance. A comparative company risk analysis is also provided. Then, we employ both risk measures to formulate a two-step asset ranking method. The assets are initially rated according to the investors' risk preference. In addition, an algorithm is suggested to incorporate the asset robustness information and refine further the ranking benefiting market analysts. The rationale provided by the ranking technique serves as a point of departure in designing an asset risk classifier. We identify the fuzzy neural network structure of the classifier and develop an evolutionary training algorithm. The algorithm starts with suggesting preliminary heuristics in constructing a sufficient training set of assets with various characteristics revealed by the values of the pricing factors and the asset risk values. Then, the training algorithm works at two levels, the inner level targets weight optimization, while the outer level efficiently guides the exploration of the search space. The latter is achieved by automatically decomposing the training set into subsets of decreasing complexity and then incrementing backward the corresponding subpopulations of partially trained networks. The empirical results prove that the developed algorithm is capable of training the identified fuzzy network structure. This is a problem of such complexity that prevents single-level evolution from attaining meaningful results. The final outcome is an automatic asset classifier, based on the investors’ perceptions of acceptable risk. All the steps described above constitute our approach to reformulating asset risk analysis within the approximate reasoning framework through the fusion of various computational intelligence techniques

Mobile app recommendations using deep learning and big data

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Marketing Research e CRMRecommender systems were first introduced to solve information overload problems in enterprises. Over the last decades, recommender systems have found applications in several major websites related to e-commerce, music and video streaming, travel and movie sites, social media and mobile app stores. Several methods have been proposed over the years to build recommender systems. The most popular approaches are based on collaborative filtering techniques, which leverage the similarities between consumer tastes. But the current state of the art in recommender systems is deep-learning methods, which can leverage not only item consumption data but also content, context, and user attributes. Mobile app stores generate data with Big Data properties from app consumption data, behavioral, geographic, demographic, social network and user-generated content data, which includes reviews, comments and search queries. In this dissertation, we propose a deep-learning architecture for recommender systems in mobile app stores that leverage most of these data sources. We analyze three issues related to the impact of the data sources, the impact of embedding layer pretraining and the efficiency of using Kernel methods to improve app scoring at a Big Data scale. An experiment is conducted on a Portuguese Android app store. Results suggest that models can be improved by combining structured and unstructured data. The results also suggest that embedding layer pretraining is essential to obtain good results. Some evidence is provided showing that Kernel-based methods might not be efficient when deployed in Big Data contexts

A Review on Artificial Intelligence Applications for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Systems

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) is increasing in various sectors of photovoltaic (PV) systems, due to the increasing computational power, tools and data generation. The currently employed methods for various functions of the solar PV industry related to design, forecasting, control, and maintenance have been found to deliver relatively inaccurate results. Further, the use of AI to perform these tasks achieved a higher degree of accuracy and precision and is now a highly interesting topic. In this context, this paper aims to investigate how AI techniques impact the PV value chain. The investigation consists of mapping the currently available AI technologies, identifying possible future uses of AI, and also quantifying their advantages and disadvantages in regard to the conventional mechanisms

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Approaches to Energy Demand-Side Response: A Systematic Review

Recent years have seen an increasing interest in Demand Response (DR) as a means to provide flexibility, and hence improve the reliability of energy systems in a cost-effective way. Yet, the high complexity of the tasks associated with DR, combined with their use of large-scale data and the frequent need for near real-time de-cisions, means that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) — a branch of AI — have recently emerged as key technologies for enabling demand-side response. AI methods can be used to tackle various challenges, ranging from selecting the optimal set of consumers to respond, learning their attributes and pref-erences, dynamic pricing, scheduling and control of devices, learning how to incentivise participants in the DR schemes and how to reward them in a fair and economically efficient way. This work provides an overview of AI methods utilised for DR applications, based on a systematic review of over 160 papers, 40 companies and commercial initiatives, and 21 large-scale projects. The papers are classified with regards to both the AI/ML algorithm(s) used and the application area in energy DR. Next, commercial initiatives are presented (including both start-ups and established companies) and large-scale innovation projects, where AI methods have been used for energy DR. The paper concludes with a discussion of advantages and potential limitations of reviewed AI techniques for different DR tasks, and outlines directions for future research in this fast-growing area

A new framework for electricity price forecasting via multi-head self-attention and CNN-based techniques in the competitive electricity market

Due to recent technical improvements, the smart grid has become a feasible platform for electricity market participants to successfully regulate their bidding process based on demand-side management (DSM) perspectives. At this level, practical design, implementation, and assessment of numerous demand response mechanisms and robust short-term price forecasting development in day-ahead transactions are all critical. The accuracy and effectiveness of the day-ahead price forecasting process are crucial concerns in a deregulated market. In this market, the reason for low accuracy is the limitation of electricity generation compared to the electricity demand variations. Hence, this study proposes a suitable technique for forecasting electricity prices using a multi-head self-attention and Convolutional Neural networks (CNN) based approach. Further, this study develops a feature selection technique using mutual information (MI) and neural networks (NN) to choose suitable input variable subsets significantly affecting electricity price predictions simultaneously. The combination of MI and NN reduces the number of input features used in the model, thereby decreasing the computational complexity of the NN. The actual data sets from the Ontario electricity market in 2020 are acquired to verify the simulation results. Finally, the simulation results proved the efficiency of the proposed method by demonstrating increased accuracy by attaining the lowest average value for MAPE and RMSE with a value of 1.75% and 0.0085, respectively, and compared to results obtained by recent computational intelligence approaches. By attaining accurate electricity price results, the significance of this study can be summed up as aiding the electricity industry's operators in administering effective energy management, efficient resource allocation, and informed decision-making.© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed