The state of the art development of AHP (1979-2017): A literature review with a social network analysis

Although many papers describe the evolution of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), most adopt a subjective approach. This paper examines the pattern of development of the AHP research field using social network analysis and scientometrics, and identifies its intellectual structure. The objectives are: (i) to trace the pattern of development of AHP research; (ii) to identify the patterns of collaboration among authors; (iii) to identify the most important papers underpinning the development of AHP; and (iv) to discover recent areas of interest. We analyse two types of networks: social networks, that is, co-authorship networks, and cognitive mapping or the network of disciplines affected by AHP. Our analyses are based on 8441 papers published between 1979 and 2017, retrieved from the ISI Web of Science database. To provide a longitudinal perspective on the pattern of evolution of AHP, we analyse these two types of networks during the three periods 1979?1990, 1991?2001 and 2002?2017. We provide some basic statistics on AHP journals and researchers, review the main topics and applications of integrated AHPs and provide direction for future research by highlighting some open questions

The state of the art development of AHP (1979-2017): a literature review with a social network analysis

Although many papers describe the evolution of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), most adopt a subjective approach. This paper examines the pattern of development of the AHP research field using social network analysis and scientometrics, and identifies its intellectual structure. The objectives are: (i) to trace the pattern of development of AHP research; (ii) to identify the patterns of collaboration among authors; (iii) to identify the most important papers underpinning the development of AHP; and (iv) to discover recent areas of interest. We analyse two types of networks: social networks, that is, co-authorship networks, and cognitive mapping or the network of disciplines affected by AHP. Our analyses are based on 8441 papers published between 1979 and 2017, retrieved from the ISI Web of Science database. To provide a longitudinal perspective on the pattern of evolution of AHP, we analyse these two types of networks during the three periods 1979–1990, 1991–2001 and 2002–2017. We provide some basic statistics on AHP journals and researchers, review the main topics and applications of integrated AHPs and provide direction for future research by highlighting some open questions

Multi-Criteria Decision Matrix Method in the Risk Analysis of Biodiesel Production Processes

Renewable fuel technologies aim to mitigate the non-renewability of fossil fuels, challenges with increased energy demand, and the climate impact of fossil fuel emissions. However, before investing in renewable technologies, there need to be decision strategies that assess and identify the best alternatives according to stakeholder priorities. There is also a concern about whether the technologies that are the “most sustainable” effectively meet the acceptable risk requirements of stakeholders. In response to this question, a risk-adapted multi-criteria decision model was developed and compared to a sustainability study that evaluated five renewable diesel technologies, including Green Diesel I, II, and III; Fischer-Tropsch biodiesel, and the transesterification of biodiesel from vegetable oils. This thesis work provides essential stakeholder perspectives on the risk of these same five technologies and limits the use of probabilistic quantification approaches. Instead, this study uses reasonable assumptions to measure the indicator data objectively. These quantified indicators are considered a cost or benefit and allow adequate comparison of less mature technologies where historical data may be unavailable to more mature ones. This model uses the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) decision strategy with stakeholder survey input to determine criteria and sub-criteria weightings, while the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) subsequently ranks the alternative technologies. The criteria evaluated from a risk perspective include process safety, environmental, economic, technological, and social risks. This risk assessment process has ranked technologies producing alternative fuel types. However, it can also compare and rank bioproduct and process intensification technologies to fossil-derived products and more traditional production techniques. Moreover, the central conclusion of this work is that an even more comprehensive tool is needed that combines risk and sustainability aspects. This conclusion is due to the sustainability study indicating Fischer-Tropsch diesel as the best option. At the same time, the present risk research revealed it as the option with the most significant comparative risk

Understanding, assessing, comparing, and managing risks related to the energy transition from fossil fuel to renewables – for Norway and India

There is growing worry about the future supply of fossil-fuel-based energy and its environmental consequences. There is call for the globe to switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. (Teles et al., 2015). On the other hand, the speed and scale of this shift remain uncertain and arguable. (Gribkova & Milshina, 2022). The energy transition is inherently risky. (Poudineh et al., 2019). The main objectives of the thesis are to gain improved knowledge of the risks related to the energy transition from fossil fuel to renewables for Norway and India, and contribute to improve the assessment and management of these risks. The energy industry is responsible for nearly three-quarters of the emissions that have already increased world average temperatures by 1.1 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, with evident effects on weather and climate extremes. The energy industry must be at the center of the climate change solution. (IEA, 2021b). The thesis performs risk analysis for both nations using Bayesian network, compares and demonstrates the variations in the study's outcomes, as well as the different risk management approaches that they may use. The Bayesian network events and consequences are interlinked, and the sequence of action may or may not be followed as demonstrated as it depends on the various factors and the probability of occurrences of scenarios involving these factors. Factors such as government policies encouraging renewable energy and energy efficiency, technology and innovation, people expectations, Covid-19 will all play a role in the sequence. The thesis further shows that socioeconomic factors influence the risks and the energy transition for both the countries. Risk comparison demonstrates that a same risk problem in two distinct situations (here, two separate nations) is not identical. The risk comparison underlines the importance of conducting a context assessment first in order to have a better understanding of risk. Risk management strategies are suggested in this thesis for the management of risks for Norway and India which contributes to improved risk management of the energy transition risks for Norway and India. Risk informed strategy is used in the thesis wherein risk treatment methods are suggested for the identified risk sources and initiating events. When one wants to choose between several solution alternatives for the energy transition problem then the author suggests that a multi-attribute analysis is a better approach for decision making because there are several factors influencing the decision-making process, including energy sources, energy demands, population, economy, geography, political goals and strategies, ethical factors, social factors, personal factors, infrastructure needs, citizen psychology, societal preference, speed of transition, and in general its magnitude. The author believes that the governments must try to strike a balance between the various attributes. These questions have no definitive solutions. The author of this thesis emphasizes that whether precautionary principle be given more or less weight is the choice of the decision maker. Companies should propose alternative uses of oil and gas utilities to successfully tackle the energy transition barrier and enhance the degree of risk acceptability and tolerance in the energy market. For productive operations, organizations should take effective precautions and adopt contemporary risk acceptability models such as ALARP. By performing risk analysis and comparing the risks these countries face in achieving the Paris Climate Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals using various risk management strategies, this thesis contributes to a better understanding of the energy transition risks and improved risk assessment & risk management for Norway and India

Critical Infrastructure Protection Metrics and Tools Papers and Presentations

Contents: Dr. Hilda Blanco: Prioritizing Assets in Critical Infrastructure Systems; Christine Poptanich: Strategic Risk Analysis; Geoffrey S. French/Jin Kim: Threat-Based Approach to Risk Case Study: Strategic Homeland Infrastructure Risk Assessment (SHIRA); William L. McGill: Techniques for Adversary Threat Probability Assessment; Michael R. Powers: The Mathematics of Terrorism Risk Stefan Pickl: SOA Approach to the IT-based Protection of CIP; Richard John: Probabilistic Project Management for a Terrorist Planning a Dirty Bomb Attack on a Major US Port; LCDR Brady Downs: Maritime Security Risk Analysis Model (MSRAM); Chel Stromgren: Terrorism Risk Assessment and Management (TRAM); Steve Lieberman: Convergence of CIP and COOP in Banking and Finance; Harry Mayer: Assessing the Healthcare and Public Health Sector with Model Based Risk Analysis; Robert Powell: How Much and On What? Defending and Deterring Strategic Attackers; Ted G. Lewis: Why Do Networks Cascade

Criticality of infrastructure networks under consideration of resilience-based maintenance strategies using the example of inland waterways

Transportation infrastructures as backbone of modern, globalized, and networked societies ensure flows of people and goods and thus sustain social and economic prosperity. Concurrently, more and more infrastructure construction assets are facing the problem of systematic obsolescence due to deficient structural conditions, maintenance backlogs, and a lack of or misallocation of resources for the construction and maintenance of infrastructure buildings. This problem construct necessitates a resilience-based maintenance strategy for the asset portfolio. In particular, inland navigation as a mode of transport features large transport volumes and few redundancies. Combined with its increasing importance due to its comparatively high environmental friendliness, a predestined, yet in the literature underrepresented research subject results. This dissertation aims to investigate essential factors of infrastructure management and thereby identify the potential for improvement in the complex construct of maintenance management and related areas. The emphasis is on enhancing the resilience of inland waterways as a complex System-of-Systems with all its interdependencies. Thus, a holistic risk and resilience assessment is essential and is underlined with the aspects infrastructure availability and business decisions (Study A, B, C and D) and stakeholder communication and risk analysis (Study E, F, G) which are addressed by seven studies published as companion articles. Study A deals with assessing the reliability of transport infrastructure networks as part of supply chains, highlighting the importance of available and thus maintained infrastructure assets for functioning supply chains. Study B aims to identify critical warning times before closures of transport infrastructure networks and therefore suggests a mixed-methods approach, making it possible to derive and evaluate critical thresholds. Study C examines the corresponding company decisions, i.e., decisions as reaction towards neglected maintenance of public transport infrastructure, which comprises risk coping strategies, examined by empirical investigations. Study D extends this problem observation by showing that companies could see incentives for outsourcing if they face a lack of access to available transport infrastructure. Hence, the study analyzes facility relocation problems in dependence on infrastructure availability. Study E heads toward stakeholder communication and risk analysis and examines the processes across stakeholders, using an approach of collaborative serious gaming, which simultaneously enhances situation awareness and communication among stakeholders. Study F provides the implementation of a systemic approach and its visualization as a GIS-based risk dashboard, shedding light on interdependencies among critical infrastructures and cascading effects. Study G closes with an examination of the evaluation of the potential of infrastructure funds. For this purpose, the study conducts an online survey to determine investors’ willingness to pay for various fund mechanisms, integrating the option of private coverage. Despite the geographic focus of the case studies on Germany, valuable insights can be gained for infrastructure management that can also apply to other countries. In addition to the case study findings, general recommendations for infrastructure owners are derived. As a result, it can be stated that it is essential that maintenance strategies have to be more resilience-based than traditional strategies, which are mainly based on fixed time intervals for maintenance. Moreover, the application of both serious gaming and GIS visualization can help to enhance situation awareness and thus the resilience of infrastructure systems. An essential finding for which this dissertation provides methodological approaches is that considering the local area’s attractiveness for business locations should receive more attention regarding investment decisions. Thereby a focus should be set on the realistic threat of relocations as response to deteriorating infrastructure conditions. Eventually, public debates should strengthen the knowledge about infrastructure and its funding, while deficits in alongside mechanisms in infrastructure funding must be encountered. Consequently, this dissertation provides insights into the potential of infrastructure management. Mainly, it offers the potential to improve the resilience of the waterway transportation system and address stakeholders accordingly

A Framework for Prioritizing Opportunities of Improvement in the Context of Business Excellence Model in Healthcare Organization

In today\u27s world, the healthcare sector is facing challenges to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of its operations. More and more improvement projects are being adopted to enhance healthcare services, making it more patient-centric, and enabling better cost control. Healthcare organizations strive to identify and carry out such improvement initiatives to sustain their businesses and gain competitive advantage. Seeking to reach a higher operational level of excellence, healthcare organizations utilize business excellence criteria to conduct assessment and identify organizational strengths and weaknesses. However, while such assessments routinely identify numerous areas for potential improvement, it is not feasible to conduct all improvement projects simultaneously due to limitations in time, capital, and personnel, as well as conflict with other organization\u27s projects or strategic objectives. An effective prioritization and selection approach is valuable in that it can assist the organization to optimize its available resources and outcomes. This study attempts to enable such an approach by developing a framework to prioritize improvement opportunities in healthcare in the context of the business excellence model through the integration of the Fuzzy Delphi Method and Fuzzy Interface System. To carry out the evaluation process, the framework consists of two phases. The first phase utilizes Fuzzy Delphi Method to identify the most significant factors that should be considered in healthcare for electing the improvement projects. The FDM is employed to handle the subjectivity of human assessment. The research identifies potential factors for evaluating projects, then utilizes FDM to capture expertise knowledge. The first round in FDM is intended to validate the identified list of factors from experts; which includes collecting additional factors from experts that the literature might have overlooked. When an acceptable level of consensus has been reached, a second round is conducted to obtain experts\u27 and other related stakeholders\u27 opinions on the appropriate weight of each factor\u27s importance. Finally, FDM analyses eliminate or retain the criteria to produce a final list of critical factors to select improvement projects. The second phase in the framework attempts to prioritize improvement initiatives using the Hierarchical Fuzzy Interface System. The Fuzzy Interface System combines the experts\u27 ratings for each improvement opportunity with respect to the factors deemed critical to compute the priority index. In the process of calculating the priority index, the framework allows the estimation of other intermediate indices including: social, financial impact, strategical, operational feasibility, and managerial indices. These indices bring an insight into the improvement opportunities with respect to each framework\u27s dimensions. The framework allows for a reduction of the bias in the assessment by developing a knowledge based on the perspectives of multiple experts

Co-selection in R&D project portfolio management

In the study I analyze the conflicting aspects of project portfolio evolution in a firm. The evolutionary principles of variation, selection and retention are applied to the management of new product development projects. Managers select projects for prioritization. A selection rule is the prioritization rule. In biology, living creatures develop specific features for adaptation as a result of selection rules. However, the selection of specific adaptive features carries along the retention of other, even unforeseen non-adaptive features. Drawing on the evolutionary principles forwarded by Darwin I examine how they manifest in the project portfolio. I define this non-adaptive mechanism as co-selection. By analogy, in portfolio management, if the selection rule for project priority is high revenue and feasibility to global access, other features also survive when the selection rule relating to the prioritization of projects is applied. The evolution of the new product development project portfolio in the case firm displays conflicting trends in the emerging project portfolio over time. Managers pursue prioritization to decrease product development times. But, alas, in the project portfolio the prioritized projects age to a greater degree than non-prioritized projects. Managers prioritize the projects held by the focal business unit more often than those of other business units. However, ultimately the focal business unit has less than a due share of prioritized projects in the portfolio. The results of this study question the applicability of optimizing models in R&D portfolio management in the presence of co-selection. The project portfolio management literature does not provide a mechanism to account for this type of portfolio development. Co-selection provides a mechanism that explains the observed evolution. The study contributes to the conceptualization of the notion of co-selection. The study also provides empirical evidence on co-selection, a non-adaptive evolutionary mechanism to modify R&D project portfolio outcome. The findings give a better understanding of portfolio management of R&D driven new product development projects

Integrated assessment and sustainability frameworks : diagnosis, design and application of an adaptive tool

The present Ph.D. thesis aims to close a gap found in literature regarding the availability of a sustainability integrated assessment method to be carried at local level where generally, data and resources are restricted and variable over time. After starting with a review on the most relevant sustainability frameworks and assessment methods, I was faced with the question of how these elements could be implemented on field. I found answers through a case study: the project “Promotion and development of organic agriculture for grain producers in Jalisco, Mexico”. Making two field visits to the study area was crucial for me to verify the suitability of the designed adaptive integrated assessment tool for evaluating sustainability of local agroecosystems with the participation of local farmers. Finally, I expanded the tool to incorporate a dynamic assessment of the analyzed elements with a systems-based approach. The research process I followed consisted on the preparation, submission and publication of papers corresponding to each one of the chapters here presented. The most significant result of my research is the in-field validation of an adaptive and integrated sustainability assessment tool that applied to contrast the management of agroecosystems proved to be useful for: consolidating the sustainability approach, driving decision-making processes and bringing tangible results at local level. I encountered some obstacles as well: the transversal scope of the research that translated in greater complexity; the struggle between the long-termed sustainability goals and the requirement for immediate results; data gaps and the colliding vision of farmers and public institutions over the agricultural issues observed in the study area. To overcome these obstacles, the research in a broad sense, points to the recognition of sustainable agriculture as a necessity for people and in a practical one, provides a method that is fully driven at local level with a flexible indicator set and a multidimensional participatory approach. This research is meant to help sustainability in moving beyond theoretical debates and towards a practical influence for decision-making at local level.La presente tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo reducir una brecha encontrada en la literatura en torno a la conducción de un análisis integrado de la sostenibilidad a nivel local, donde generalmente la disponibilidad de datos y recursos es limitada y variable. Comenzando con la revisión de los más relevantes marcos teóricos y los métodos de evaluación de la sostenibilidad, surgió la cuestión de cómo estos elementos podían ser implementados a nivel práctico. Las respuestas fueron encontradas a través del caso de estudio: el proyecto “Promoción y desarrollo de la agricultura orgánica para productores de granos del estado de Jalisco, México”. Dos visitas de campo al área de estudio fueron cruciales para verificar si la herramienta diseñada era adecuada para el análisis integrado de la sostenibilidad en agroecosistemas locales con la participación de los productores. Finalmente, la herramienta fue ampliada para incorporar el análisis dinámico de los elementos evaluados mediante un enfoque sistémico. El proceso de investigación se llevó a cabo a través de la preparación, postulación y publicación de artículos científicos correspondientes a cada capítulo. El resultado más significativo, fue la validación en el terreno de una herramienta adaptativa e integrada para la evaluación de la sostenibilidad que, aplicada para contrastar el manejo de los agroecosistemas, demostró ser útil para: consolidar el enfoque de la sostenibilidad, dirigir los procesos de toma de decisiones y aportar resultados tangibles a nivel local. Algunos obstáculos también fueron encontrados: la transversalidad del tema de investigación que se tradujo en una mayor complejidad; la lucha entre las metas a largo plazo de la sostenibilidad y la demanda de resultados inmediatos; los datos discontinuos y las visiones encontradas de los productores y las instituciones públicas en torno a la problemática observada. Para superar dichos obstáculos, en sentido amplio, esta investigación señala la importancia de reconocer la agricultura sostenible como una necesidad para los pueblos. En un sentido más práctico, proporciona un método que se implementa a nivel local de principio a fin a través de un set flexible de indicadores y un enfoque multidimensional y participativo. Esta investigación, pretende ayudar a que la sostenibilidad supere los debates teóricos para convertirse en una influencia práctica en la toma de decisiones a nivel local.Aquesta tesi doctoral té com a objectiu reduir una bretxa trobada a la literatura especialitzada quant a la conducció d’una anàlisi integrat de la sostenibilitat en l’àmbit local, on generalment la disponibilitat de dades i altres recursos és limitada i variable. Començant amb una revisió dels més rellevants marcs teòrics i els mètodes d’avaluació de la sostenibilitat, va sorgir la qüestió de com aquests elements podien ser implementats pràcticament. Les respostes s’han trobat a través del cas d’estudi: el projecte “Promoció i desenvolupament de l’agricultura orgànica per productors de gra de l’estat de Jalisco, Mèxic”. Duges visites de camp a l’àrea d’estudi, van ser crucials per verificar si l’eina dissenyada va estar l’adequada per l’anàlisi integrat de la sostenibilitat en els agroecosistemes locals amb la participació dels productors. Finalment, l’eina va ser ampliada per incorporar l’anàlisi dinàmic dels elements avaluats per mitjà de l’enfocament sistèmic. El procés de la recerca es va dur a terme a través de la preparació, presentació i publicació d’articles científics corresponents a cada capítol. El resultat més significatiu, ha estat la validació al terreny d’una eina adaptativa i integrada per a l’avaluació de la sostenibilitat que, aplicada per contrastar el maneig dels agroecosistemes, va demostrar la seva utilitat per a: consolidar l’enfocament de la sostenibilitat, dirigir els processos de presa de decisions i aportar resultats tangibles a escala local. Alguns obstacles també s’han trobat: la transversalitat del tema de la recerca, que s’ha traduït en una major complexitat; la lluita entre les metes a llarg termini de la sostenibilitat i la demanda de resultats immediats; la discontinuïtat de les dades i les visions contraposades dels productors i les institucions públiques al voltant de la problemàtica observada. Per poder superar aquests obstacles, en un sentit ample aquesta recerca senyala la importància de reconèixer l’agricultura orgànica com a una necessitat pels pobles. En un sentit més pràctic, proporciona un mètode que s’implementa a nivell local de principi a fi a través d’un set flexible d’indicadores i un enfocament multidimensional i participatiu. Aquesta recerca pretén ajudar que la sostenibilitat superi els debats teòrics per esdevenir una influència practica a la presa de decisions en l’àmbit localPostprint (published version

Making Communities More Flood Resilient: The Role of Cost Benefit Analysis and Other Decision-support Tools in Disaster Risk Reduction

Given the series of large-scale flood disasters that have occurred in recent years, there is a growing recognition among community leaders, businesses, insurers, governments and international donors of the need to invest in risk reduction measures before such events happen. Due to the costs of risk reduction measures, these actions need to be justified and as a result there is an increasing need to utilize decision-support tools, which can help to make the case for action to reduce disaster risks and build flood resilience when faced with limited resources. Across stakeholders, the specific objectives from the use of decision-support tools include (i) demonstrating the efficiency of the action ex-ante (before the flood); (ii) aiding in the selection of a particular intervention in enhancing community flood resilience from a suite of possible options; (iii) helping communities make the right choice when faced with limited investments; (iv) demonstrating the benefits of donor funding of community flood resilience projects; and (v) monitoring the successes and weaknesses of past interventions to generate lessons learned for future work. Typically, discussion on decision-support for disaster risk reduction (DRR) in floods (as well as for other hazards) has focused on cost-benefit analysis (CBA), however there are a number of other tools available to support decision-making. These include cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and robust-decision-making approaches (RDMA), which have been applied to similar problems, and can also be used to aid decision-making regarding flooding. This white paper provides an overview of the opportunities and challenges of applying these different tools, and guides the reader to select among them. Selection depends on the desired objective, circumstances, data available, timeframe to perform analyses, level of detail, and other considerations. We first focus on the CBA decision-tool, as this has been the mainstay of research and implementation. We then go beyond CBA to consider the other techniques for prioritising DRR investments. While our analysis is specific to flood DRR actions, the conclusion are also applicable to other hazards. The key findings arising from this white paper with relevance to research, policy and implementation of flood DRR decision-support tools, are: (1) Following a comprehensive review of the quantitative CBA flood DRR evidence, we find that flood DRR investments largely pay off, with an average of five dollars saved for every dollar spent through avoided and reduced losses; (2) Using CBA for flood risk reduction assessment should properly account for low-frequency, high-impact flood events, and also tackle key challenges such as intangible impacts; (3) Decision-making can be improved by using various decision support tools tailored to the desired outcomes and contexts. This white paper is the foundation upon which the Zurich flood resilience alliance work on integration of a decision toolbox will proceed "on the ground," with established community-based risk assessment tools, in particular Vulnerability Capacity Assessments (VCA) or Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Assessments (PCVA). Based on these findings we propose a way forward over the next several years on informing risk-based decision making as part of the alliance program