Evaluating the performances of over-the-counter companies in developing countries using a stochastic dominance criterion and a PSO-ANN hybrid optimization model

With suitable optimization criteria, hybrid models have proven to be efficient for preparing portfolios in capital markets of developed countries. This study adapts and investigates these methods for a developing country, so providing a novel approach to the application of banking and finance. Our specific objectives are to employ a stochastic dominance criterion to evaluate the performances of over-the-counter (OTC) companies in a developing country and to analyse them with a hybrid model involving particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks. In order to achieve these aims, we conduct a case study of OTC companies in Iran. Weekly and daily returns of 36 companies listed in this market are calculated for one year during 2014-2015. The hybrid model is particularly interesting and our results identify first, second and third-order stochastic dominances among these companies. Our chosen model uses the best performing combination of activation functions in our analysis, corresponding to TPT where T represents hyperbolic tangent transfers and P represents linear transfers. Our portfolios are based on the shares of companies ranked with respect to the stochastic dominance criterion. Considering the minimum and maximum numbers of shares to be 2 and 10 for each portfolio, an eight-share portfolio is determined to be optimal. Compared with the index of Iran OTC during the research period of this study, our selected portfolio achieves a significantly better performance. Moreover, the methods used in this analysis are shown to be as efficient as they were in the capital markets of developed countries

Are incomplete and self-confident preference relations better in multicriteria decision making? A simulation-based investigation

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Incomplete preference relations and self-confident preference relations have been widely used in multicriteria decision-making problems. However, there is no strong evidence, in the current literature, to validate their use in decision-making. This paper reports on the design of two bounded rationality principle based simulation methods, and detailed experimental results, that aim at providing evidence to answer the following two questions: (1) what are the conditions under which incomplete preference relations are better than complete preference relations?; and (2) can self-confident preference relations improve the quality of decisions? The experimental results show that when the decision-maker is of medium rational degree, incomplete preference relations with a degree of incompleteness between 20% and 40% outperform complete preference relations; otherwise, the opposite happens. Furthermore, in most cases the quality of the decision making improves when using self-confident preference relations instead of incomplete preference relations. The paper ends with the presentation of a sensitivity analysis that contributes to the robustness of the experimental conclusions

Fuzzy Rankings for Preferences Modeling in Group Decision Making

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Although fuzzy preference relations (FPRs) are among the most commonly used preference models in group decision making (GDM), they are not free from drawbacks. First of all, especially when dealing with many alternatives, the definition of FPRs becomes complex and time consuming. Moreover, they allow to focus on only two options at a time. This facilitates the expression of preferences but let experts lose the global perception of the problem with the risk of introducing inconsistencies that impact negatively on the whole decision process. For these reasons, different preference models are often adopted in real GDM settings and, if necessary, transformation functions are applied to obtain equivalent FPRs. In this paper, we propose fuzzy rankings, a new approximate preference model that offers a higher level of user‐friendliness with respect to FPRs while trying to maintain an adequate level of expressiveness. Fuzzy rankings allow experts to focus on two alternatives at a time without losing the global picture so reducing inconsistencies. Conversion algorithms from fuzzy rankings to FPRs and backward are defined as well as similarity measures, useful when evaluating the concordance between experts’ opinion. A comparison of the proposed model with related works is reported as well as several explicative examples

Group Decision Making Based on a Framework of Granular Computing for Multi-Criteria and Linguistic Contexts

The usage of linguistic information involves computing with words, a methodology assuming linguistic values as computational elements, in group decision-making environments. In recent times, a new methodology founded on a framework of granular computing has been employed to manage linguistic information. An advantage of this methodology is that the distribution and the semantics of the linguistic values, in place of being initially established, are defined by the optimization of a certain criterion. In this paper, different from the existing approaches, we present a novel approach build on the basis of a granular computing framework that is able to cope with group decision-making problems defined in multi-criteria contexts, that is, those in which different criteria are considered to evaluate the possible alternatives for solving the problem. In particular, it models group decision-making problems in a more realistic way by taking into account that each criterion has an importance weight and by considering that each decision maker has a different importance weight for each criterion. This approach makes operational the linguistic values by associating them with intervals via the optimization of an optimization criterion composed of two important aspects that must be taken into account in this kind of decision problems, that is, the consensus at the level of group of decision makers and the consistency at the level of individual decision makers.This work was supported in part by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under Project DPI2016-77677-P, in part by the RoboCity2030-DIH-CM Madrid Robotics Digital Innovation Hub (``Robótica aplicada a la mejora de la calidad de vida de los ciudadanos. Fase IV''; S2018/NMT-4331), funded by the ``Programas de Actividades I+D de la Comunidad de Madrid,'' and co-funded by the Structural Funds of the EU, and in part by the research grant from the Asociación Universitaria Iberoamericana de Postgrado (AUIP) and Consejería de Economía y Conocimiento de la Junta de Andalucía

Design and implement a Knowbots for extraction of Social Media and Web’s information.

Las transformaciones tecnológicas y de información que está experimentando la sociedad, especialmente en la última década, está produciendo un crecimiento exponencial de los datos en todos los ámbitos de la sociedad. Los datos que se generan en los diferentes ámbitos se corresponden con elementos primarios de información que por sí solos son irrelevantes como apoyo a las tomas de decisiones. Para que estos datos puedan ser de utilidad en cualquier proceso de decisión, es preciso que se conviertan en información, es decir, en un conjunto de datos procesados con un significado, para ayudar a crear conocimiento. Estos procesos de transformación de datos en información se componen de diferentes fases como la localización de las fuentes de información, captura, análisis y medición.Este cambio tecnológico y a su vez de la sociedad ha provocado un aumento de las fuentes de información, de manera que cualquier persona, empresas u organización, puede generar información que puede ser relevante para el negocio de las empresas o gobiernos. Localizar estas fuentes, identificar información relevante en la fuente y almacenar la información que generan, la cual puede tener diferentes formatos, es el primer paso de todo el proceso anteriormente descrito, el cual tiene que ser ejecutado de manera correcta ya que el resto de fases dependen de las fuentes y datos recolectados. Para la identificación de información relevante en las fuentes se han creado lo que se denomina, robot de búsqueda, los cuales examinan de manera automática una fuente de información, localizando y recolectando datos que puedan ser de interés.En este trabajo se diseña e implementa un robot de conocimiento junto con los sistemas de captura de información online para fuentes hipertextuales y redes sociales

Linguistic multi-criteria decision-making model with output variable expressive richness

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.In general, traditional decision-making models are based on methods that perform calculations on quantitative measures. These methods are usually applied to assess possible solutions to a problem, resulting in a ranking of alternatives. However, when it comes to making decisions about qualitative measures –such as service quality–, the quantitative assessment is a bit difficult to interpret. Therefore, taking into account the maturity of the linguistic assessment models, this paper puts forth a new solution proposal. It is a decision-making model that uses linguistic labels –represented with the 2-tuple notation– and a variable expressive richness when providing output results. This solution allows expressing results in a manner closer to the human cognitive system. To achieve this goal, a mechanism has been implemented for measuring the distance among the aggregate ratings, providing the decision-maker with a fast and intuitive answer. The proposal is illustrated with an application example based on the TOPSIS model, using linguistic labels throughout the entire process

Modelado de toma de decisión con coalición de criterios e información lingüistica

Cuando es necesario resumir en un único valor diferentes opiniones relacionadas a una situación particular, usualmente se recurre a un proceso de agregación, que consiste básicamente en determinar el valor apropiado que represente la opinión de la mayoría. La presente tesis extiende el uso del operador de mayoría MA-OWA proporcionando un mecanismo para priorizar las mayorías sin que las minorías sean descartadas muy rápidamente. A su vez, este modelo, aplicado en los Social Media, es enriquecido dando la posibilidad de proporcionar la importancia de los valores a agregar con otros criterios diferentes a la cardinalidad de los mismos. Adicionalmente, se implementa un modelo de toma de decisiones donde los criterios a evaluar pueden presentar algún tipo de interacción. En este ámbito, la integral discreta de Choquet es un operador de agregación definido en función de una medida difusa, que se comporta adecuadamente para modelar el fenómeno expuesto. Se presenta un método de construcción automático de la medida difusa asociada a la integral, tomando como base las apreciaciones de varios expertos con diferentes niveles de experticia. Se recurre a la utilización de información lingüística para expresar el grado y signo de la sinergia entre los criterios intervinientes. Finalmente, si bien los modelos diseñados se comportan adecuadamente en forma separada, su potencial aumenta si se los emplea en un modelo integrado de coaliciones (en dos niveles) en base a la opinión de la mayoría

Storage Capacity Estimation of Commercial Scale Injection and Storage of CO2 in the Jacksonburg-Stringtown Oil Field, West Virginia

Geological capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) of carbon dioxide (CO2) in depleted oil and gas reservoirs is one method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and extending the life of the field. Therefore CCUS coupled with EOR is considered to be an economic approach to demonstration of commercial-scale injection and storage of anthropogenic CO2. Several critical issues should be taken into account prior to injecting large volumes of CO2, such as storage capacity, project duration and long-term containment. Reservoir characterization and 3D geological modeling are the best way to estimate the theoretical CO 2 storage capacity in mature oil fields. The Jacksonburg-Stringtown field, located in northwestern West Virginia, has produced over 22 million barrels of oil (MMBO) since 1895. The sandstone of the Late Devonian Gordon Stray is the primary reservoir.;The Upper Devonian fluvial sandstone reservoirs in Jacksonburg-Stringtown oil field, which has produced over 22 million barrels of oil since 1895, are an ideal candidate for CO2 sequestration coupled with EOR. Supercritical depth (\u3e2500 ft.), minimum miscible pressure (941 psi), favorable API gravity (46.5°) and good water flood response are indicators that facilitate CO 2-EOR operations. Moreover, Jacksonburg-Stringtown oil field is adjacent to a large concentration of CO2 sources located along the Ohio River that could potentially supply enough CO2 for sequestration and EOR without constructing new pipeline facilities.;Permeability evaluation is a critical parameter to understand the subsurface fluid flow and reservoir management for primary and enhanced hydrocarbon recovery and efficient carbon storage. In this study, a rapid, robust and cost-effective artificial neural network (ANN) model is constructed to predict permeability using the model\u27s strong ability to recognize the possible interrelationships between input and output variables. Two commonly available conventional well logs, gamma ray and bulk density, and three logs derived variables, the slope of GR, the slope of bulk density and Vsh were selected as input parameters and permeability was selected as desired output parameter to train and test an artificial neural network. The results indicate that the ANN model can be applied effectively in permeability prediction.;Porosity is another fundamental property that characterizes the storage capability of fluid and gas bearing formations in a reservoir. In this study, a support vector machine (SVM) with mixed kernels function (MKF) is utilized to construct the relationship between limited conventional well log suites and sparse core data. The input parameters for SVM model consist of core porosity values and the same log suite as ANN\u27s input parameters, and porosity is the desired output. Compared with results from the SVM model with a single kernel function, mixed kernel function based SVM model provide more accurate porosity prediction values.;Base on the well log analysis, four reservoir subunits within a marine-dominated estuarine depositional system are defined: barrier sand, central bay shale, tidal channels and fluvial channel subunits. A 3-D geological model, which is used to estimate theoretical CO2 sequestration capacity, is constructed with the integration of core data, wireline log data and geological background knowledge. Depending on the proposed 3-D geological model, the best regions for coupled CCUS-EOR are located in southern portions of the field, and the estimated CO2 theoretical storage capacity for Jacksonburg-Stringtown oil field vary between 24 to 383 million metric tons. The estimation results of CO2 sequestration and EOR potential indicate that the Jacksonburg-Stringtown oilfield has significant potential for CO2 storage and value-added EOR