Predictive modeling for the quantity of recycled end-of-life products using optimized ensemble learners

The rapid development of machine learning algorithms provides new solutions for predicting the quantity of recycled end-of-life products. However, the Stacking ensemble model is less widely used in the field of predicting the quantity of recycled end-of-life products. To fill this gap, we propose a Stacking ensemble model that utilizes support vector regression, multi-layer perceptrons, and extreme gradient boosting algorithms as base models, and linear regression as the meta model. The k-nearest neighbor mega-trend diffusion method is applied to avoid overfitting problems caused by a small sample data set. The grid search and time series cross validation methods are utilized to optimize the proposed model. To verify and validate the proposed model, data related to China's end-of-life vehicles industry from 2006 to 2020 is used. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves higher prediction accuracy and generalization ability in predicting the quantity of recycled end-of-life products

Predictive modeling for the quantity of recycled end-of-life products using optimized ensemble learners

This is the final version. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. Data availability: The data that has been used is confidential.The rapid development of machine learning algorithms provides new solutions for predicting the quantity of recycled end-of-life products. However, the Stacking ensemble model is less widely used in the field of predicting the quantity of recycled end-of-life products. To fill this gap, we propose a Stacking ensemble model that utilizes support vector regression, multi-layer perceptrons, and extreme gradient boosting algorithms as base models, and linear regression as the meta model. The k-nearest neighbor mega-trend diffusion method is applied to avoid overfitting problems caused by a small sample data set. The grid search and time series cross validation methods are utilized to optimize the proposed model. To verify and validate the proposed model, data related to China’s end-of-life vehicles industry from 2006 to 2020 is used. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves higher prediction accuracy and generalization ability in predicting the quantity of recycled end-of-life product

Improving the sustainability of coal SC in both developed and developing countries by incorporating extended exergy accounting and different carbon reduction policies

In the age of Industry 4.0 and global warming, it is inevitable for decision-makers to change the way they view the coal supply chain (SC). In nature, energy is the currency, and nature is the source of energy for humankind. Coal is one of the most important sources of energy which provides much-needed electricity, as well as steel and cement production. This manuscript-based PhD thesis examines the coal SC network as well as the four carbon reduction strategies and plans to develop a comprehensive model for sustainable design. Thus, the Extended Exergy Accounting (EEA) method is incorporated into a coal SC under economic order quantity (EOQ) and economic production quantity (EPQs) in an uncertain environment. Using a real case study in coal SC in Iran, four carbon reduction policies such as carbon tax (Chapter 5), carbon trade (Chapter 6), carbon cap (Chapter 7), and carbon offset (Chapter 8) are examined. Additionally, all carbon policies are compared for sustainable performance of coal SCs in some developed and developing countries (the USA, China, India, Germany, Canada, Australia, etc.) with the world's most significant coal consumption. The objective function of the four optimization models under each carbon policy is to minimize the total exergy (in Joules as opposed to Dollars/Euros) of the coal SC in each country. The models have been solved using three recent metaheuristic algorithms, including Ant lion optimizer (ALO), Lion optimization algorithm (LOA), and Whale optimization algorithm (WOA), as well as three popular ones, such as Genetic algorithm (GA), Ant colony optimization (ACO), and Simulated annealing (SA), are suggested to determine a near-optimal solution to an exergy fuzzy nonlinear integer-programming (EFNIP). Moreover, the proposed metaheuristic algorithms are validated by using an exact method (by GAMS software) in small-size test problems. Finally, through a sensitivity analysis, this dissertation compares the effects of applying different percentages of exergy parameters (capital, labor, and environmental remediation) to coal SC models in each country. Using this approach, we can determine the best carbon reduction policy and exergy percentage that leads to the most sustainable performance (the lowest total exergy per Joule). The findings of this study may enhance the related research of sustainability assessment of SC as well as assist coal enterprises in making logical and measurable decisions

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

The implications of the rise of clean energy on lithium market dynamics

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering, Johannesburg 2018This research aims to assess the factors surrounding the emergence of markets with the greatest potential for rechargeable lithium battery adoption. The implications of the rise of electric vehicles and electrical energy storage are measured against lithium supply and market pricing. This was resolved by reviewing all available information and comparing it with the intricacies of resources, production and recycling. An analysis of price formation is also undertaken before making assumptions to enable a forecast of future market dynamics until 2030. Electric vehicles will require almost threefold the lithium produced in 2015 by the end of the period considered, with grid storage predicted to follow suit. No geological supply constraints were found, but economic scarcity is a strong possibility. Production is highly vulnerable to disruption due to concentration and the situation is exacerbated by inelastic demand. Recycling may be the most critical means of diversifying and improving supplies.XL201

Retail forecasting: research and practice

This paper first introduces the forecasting problems faced by large retailers, from the strategic to the operational, from the store to the competing channels of distribution as sales are aggregated over products to brands to categories and to the company overall. Aggregated forecasting that supports strategic decisions is discussed on three levels: the aggregate retail sales in a market, in a chain, and in a store. Product level forecasts usually relate to operational decisions where the hierarchy of sales data across time, product and the supply chain is examined. Various characteristics and the influential factors which affect product level retail sales are discussed. The data rich environment at lower product hierarchies makes data pooling an often appropriate strategy to improve forecasts, but success depends on the data characteristics and common factors influencing sales and potential demand. Marketing mix and promotions pose an important challenge, both to the researcher and the practicing forecaster. Online review information too adds further complexity so that forecasters potentially face a dimensionality problem of too many variables and too little data. The paper goes on to examine evidence on the alternative methods used to forecast product sales and their comparative forecasting accuracy. Many of the complex methods proposed have provided very little evidence to convince as to their value, which poses further research questions. In contrast, some ambitious econometric methods have been shown to outperform all the simpler alternatives including those used in practice. New product forecasting methods are examined separately where limited evidence is available as to how effective the various approaches are. The paper concludes with some evidence describing company forecasting practice, offering conclusions as to the research gaps but also the barriers to improved practice