Improving the profitability of direct marketing : a quantile regression approach

Direct marketing is to target consumers who are most likely to respond. A number of target selection methods have been employed to select potential customers. These methods either only consider the customer response probability and ignore the profit issue or assume that the estimates of profit are homogenous across customers when considering the expected amount of profit. Furthermore, the traditional analytical techniques based on ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, which focus on the average customer, cannot examine the differences of various customer groups or account for customer heterogeneity in profitability estimates. Quantile regression, instead of the point estimate for the conditional mean, can be used to estimate the whole distribution, especially the upper tail which we are interested in. Quantile regression does not have strict model assumptions as OLS does and is not sensitive to outliers. To model consumer response profit in direct marketing, this thesis tested the endogeneity bias in the recency, frequency, monetary value (RFM) variables using the control function approach, made sample selection bias correction using Heckman’s procedure, and then adopted quantile regression to estimate customer profit and make forecast of the profit distribution of future values. Furthermore, we adopted the recentered influence function (RIF) regression methods proposed by Firpo et al. (2007) to perform unconditional quantile regression for customer profit estimation. The comparison of OLS, conditional and unconditional quantile regression shows that while OLS may induce possible misleading estimation results, conditional and unconditional quantile regression can provide more informative estimation results. The findings can help direct marketers augment the profitability of marketing campaigns and have meaningful implications for solving target marketing forecasting problems given the constraint of limited resources

Estimation of generalised frequency response functions

Volterra series theory has a wide application in the representation, analysis, design and control of nonlinear systems. A new method of estimating the Volterra kernels in the frequency domain is introduced based on a non-parametric algorithm. Unlike the traditional non-parametric methods using the DFT transformed input-output data, this new approach uses the time domain measurements directly to estimate the frequency domain response functions

Robust equalization of multichannel acoustic systems

In most real-world acoustical scenarios, speech signals captured by distant microphones from a source are reverberated due to multipath propagation, and the reverberation may impair speech intelligibility. Speech dereverberation can be achieved by equalizing the channels from the source to microphones. Equalization systems can be computed using estimates of multichannel acoustic impulse responses. However, the estimates obtained from system identification always include errors; the fact that an equalization system is able to equalize the estimated multichannel acoustic system does not mean that it is able to equalize the true system. The objective of this thesis is to propose and investigate robust equalization methods for multichannel acoustic systems in the presence of system identification errors. Equalization systems can be computed using the multiple-input/output inverse theorem or multichannel least-squares method. However, equalization systems obtained from these methods are very sensitive to system identification errors. A study of the multichannel least-squares method with respect to two classes of characteristic channel zeros is conducted. Accordingly, a relaxed multichannel least- squares method is proposed. Channel shortening in connection with the multiple- input/output inverse theorem and the relaxed multichannel least-squares method is discussed. Two algorithms taking into account the system identification errors are developed. Firstly, an optimally-stopped weighted conjugate gradient algorithm is proposed. A conjugate gradient iterative method is employed to compute the equalization system. The iteration process is stopped optimally with respect to system identification errors. Secondly, a system-identification-error-robust equalization method exploring the use of error models is presented, which incorporates system identification error models in the weighted multichannel least-squares formulation

Structured Sparsity Models for Multiparty Speech Recovery from Reverberant Recordings

We tackle the multi-party speech recovery problem through modeling the acoustic of the reverberant chambers. Our approach exploits structured sparsity models to perform room modeling and speech recovery. We propose a scheme for characterizing the room acoustic from the unknown competing speech sources relying on localization of the early images of the speakers by sparse approximation of the spatial spectra of the virtual sources in a free-space model. The images are then clustered exploiting the low-rank structure of the spectro-temporal components belonging to each source. This enables us to identify the early support of the room impulse response function and its unique map to the room geometry. To further tackle the ambiguity of the reflection ratios, we propose a novel formulation of the reverberation model and estimate the absorption coefficients through a convex optimization exploiting joint sparsity model formulated upon spatio-spectral sparsity of concurrent speech representation. The acoustic parameters are then incorporated for separating individual speech signals through either structured sparse recovery or inverse filtering the acoustic channels. The experiments conducted on real data recordings demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for multi-party speech recovery and recognition.Comment: 31 page

Model estimation of cerebral hemodynamics between blood flow and volume changes: a data-based modeling approach

It is well known that there is a dynamic relationship between cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral blood volume (CBV). With increasing applications of functional MRI, where the blood oxygen-level-dependent signals are recorded, the understanding and accurate modeling of the hemodynamic relationship between CBF and CBV becomes increasingly important. This study presents an empirical and data-based modeling framework for model identification from CBF and CBV experimental data. It is shown that the relationship between the changes in CBF and CBV can be described using a parsimonious autoregressive with exogenous input model structure. It is observed that neither the ordinary least-squares (LS) method nor the classical total least-squares (TLS) method can produce accurate estimates from the original noisy CBF and CBV data. A regularized total least-squares (RTLS) method is thus introduced and extended to solve such an error-in-the-variables problem. Quantitative results show that the RTLS method works very well on the noisy CBF and CBV data. Finally, a combination of RTLS with a filtering method can lead to a parsimonious but very effective model that can characterize the relationship between the changes in CBF and CBV

A comparative overview of modal testing and system identification for control of structures

A comparative overview is presented of the disciplines of modal testing used in structural engineering and system identification used in control theory. A list of representative references from both areas is given, and the basic methods are described briefly. Recent progress on the interaction of modal testing and control disciplines is discussed. It is concluded that combined efforts of researchers in both disciplines are required for unification of modal testing and system identification methods for control of flexible structures

Indirect approach to continuous time system identification of food extruder

A three-stage approach to system identification in the continuous time is presented which is appropriate for day-to-day application by plant engineers in the process industry. The three stages are: data acquisition using relay feedback; non-parametric identification of the system step response; and parametric model fitting of the identified step response. The method is evaluated on a pilot-scale food-cooking extruder