What-If Analysis: Decision-Making Model of Closed Loop Supply Chain under Uncertainty Conditions

Decision making is one of the key tasks in managerial outcomes whereby the effect of any decision matters a lot on the strategic dimensions of the organization. In recent years, due to increased environmental concerns, government regulations and natural resource constraints, and the impact of green laws, the supply chain has been attracting increasing attention. Given that the supplier plays an important role in the supply chain, if it is faced with the risk and disruption of the harmful and important impacts on the supply chain, it is necessary to study and study these conditions. Hence, in this paper, the problem of designing a closed loop supply chain network in terms of supply risk is discussed. In any decision, there are multiple perspectives or variables while are closely associated and these variables decide the overall impact on the scenario. For managerial decision making, there are assorted approaches which are used widely including sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis and many others. This research manuscript is focusing on the aspects of what-if analysis and associated decision making models under uncertainty. The manuscript covers the hidden patterns and perspectives which are mandatory to be associated and included in the process of decision making

A comparison of TOPSIS, grey relational analysis and COPRAS methods for machine selection problem in the food industry of Turkey

[EN] The paper aims to compare the results of the selection/choice of cream separators by using multi-criteria decision-making methods in an integrated manner for an enterprise with a dairy processing capacity of 80 to 100 tons per day operating in the Turkish food sector. A total of 7 alternative products and 7 criteria for milk processing were determined. Criterion weights were calculated using entropy method and then integrated into TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solutions), GRA (Grey Relational Analysis) and COPRAS (Complex Proportional Assessment) methods. Sensitivity analyses were carried out on the results obtained from the three methods to check for their reliability. At the end of the study, similar alternative and appropriate results were found from the TOPSIS and COPRAS methods. However, different alternative but appropriate or suitable results were obtained from the GRA method. Sensitivity analysis of the three methods showed that all the methods used were valid. In the review of available and related literature, very few studies on machine selection in the dairy and food sector in general were found. For this reason, it is thought that the study will contribute to the decision-making process of companies in the dairy sector in their choice of machinery selections. As far as is known, this paper is the first attempt in extant literature to compare in an integrated manner the results of TOPSIS, COPRAS and GRA methods considered in the study.Özcan, S.; Çelik, AK. (2021). A comparison of TOPSIS, grey relational analysis and COPRAS methods for machine selection problem in the food industry of Turkey. International Journal of Production Management and Engineering. 9(2):81-92. https://doi.org/10.4995/ijpme.2021.14734OJS819292Ahmed, M., Qureshi, M.N., Mallick, J., Kahla, N.B. (2019). 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ÖĞRENCİ-PROJE ATAMA PROBLEMİNDE FARKLI GRUP KARARLARININ DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Öğrenci-Proje Atama (ÖPA), genel olarak, çeşitli kriterlerin dikkate alınmasıyla öğrenci-proje gruplarının oluşturmasını ve bu gruplara projelerin atanmasını içeren çok-kriterli bir problem olarak tanımlanabilir. Bu çalışmada, problemin çözümü için üç aşamadan oluşan bir yaklaşım önerilmektedir. Yakın tarihli başka bir çalışmada geliştirilmiş olan bir 0-1 tamsayılı-hedef programlama formülasyonundan adapte edilmiş olan matematiksel programlama modeliyle, çalışmanın ilk aşamasında çeşitli kriterler dikkate alınarak öğrenci-proje gruplarının oluşturulması gerçekleştirilmektedir. Söz konusu kriterler ise (i) bir gruptaki öğrenci sayısı, (ii) genel akademik not ortalaması (GANO) değeri, (iii) yabancı dil, (iv) bilgisayar programlama, (v) genel ofis yazılımları ve (vi) veri tabanı yönetimi yetenekleridir. Sonraki aşamada, grup-proje eşleştirmeleri gerçekleştirilmeden önce, oluşturulan grupların proje tercihleri için grup üyelerinin farklı bakış açılarını yansıtan grup kararları belirlenmektedir. Son olarak, öğrenci-proje gruplarının proje tercihlerine yönelik olarak oluşturulan grup kararları kullanılarak bir 0-1 tamsayılı program ile grup-proje atamaları gerçekleştirilmektedir. Çalışmanın literatüre olan katkısı, önerilen üç aşamalı yaklaşımla, grup kararlarının dikkate alınarak ÖPA probleminin çözülmesi şeklinde özetlenebilir. Böylelikle, farklı bakış açılarına sahip çok sayıdaki öğrencinin tercihleri, ÖPA sürecinde önemli bir kriter olan tercih kriteri için yansız ve tek bir grup kararı olarak ele alınabilmektedir. Önerilen yaklaşım, akademik bir kurumdaki gerçek bir ÖPA problemine uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, ilgili literatürde bulunan diğer atama yaklaşımlarının sonuçları ile çeşitli performans parametreleri açısından karşılaştırılmıştır ve kriterlerin performans skorlarında ortalama %9 oranında iyileşme olduğu gözlenmiştir

Математичні моделі колективних рішень

Наведено результати оригінальних досліджень, спрямованих на формалізацію процесу прийняття колективних рішень групи незалежних експертів. Запропоновано математичні моделі колективних рішень в умовах ризику, що ґрунтуються на байєсових стратегіях, та моделі формальної оцінки кваліфікації експертів. На основі вдосконалених методів інтервального аналізу побудовані субоптимальні моделі, що забезпечують умови оптимальності з заданою довірчою ймовірністю. Для спеціалістів з теорії прийняття рішень та читачів, які цікавляться практичним застосуванням методів колективних рішень в техніці, медицині та економіці.The results of original research aimed at formalizing the process of making collective decisions of a group of independent experts are presented. Mathematical models of collective decisions in risk conditions based on Bayesian strategies and models of formal evaluation of experts' qualifications are proposed. On the basis of improved methods of interval analysis, suboptimal models are constructed that provide optimality conditions with a given confidence probability. For specialists in decision theory and readers interested in the practical application of methods of collective solutions in engineering, medicine and economics.Приведены результаты оригинальных исследований, направленных на формализацию процесса принятия коллективных решений группы независимых экспертов. Предложены математические модели коллективных решений в условиях риска, основанные на байесовских стратегиях, и модели формальной оценки квалификации экспертов. На основе усовершенствованных методов интервального анализа построены субоптимальные модели, обеспечивающие условия оптимальности с заданной доверительной вероятностью. Для специалистов по теории принятия решений и читателей, интересующихся практическим применением методов коллективных решений в технике, медицине и экономике

Conception et application d'une méthodologie multicritère floue de sélection de logiciels de planification et d'ordonnancement avancé (APS)

Avec la mondialisation, la croissance des entreprises et les besoins de plus en plus exigeants des clients, les défis en termes de planification et d’ordonnancement des opérations en environnement manufacturier ne cessent de croitre. Face à cette situation, les entreprises manufacturières sont dans l’obligation de mettre à jour leurs politiques de planification et d’ordonnancement en adoptant des systèmes et des approches de planifications nouvelles telles que la planification et l’ordonnancement avancés (POA). Dans cet exercice, les entreprises désirant implanter des approches de POA ont généralement deux possibilités. Elles peuvent choisir de développer une solution personnalisée ou alors d’implanter des logiciels commerciaux de POA. La deuxième piste est plus courue de nos jours. L’objectif de ce travail est d’accompagner les entreprises désirant améliorer la planification et l’ordonnancement de leurs opérations par la sélection et l’implantation d’un logiciel commercial de POA. Plus précisément, le but de ce travail est d’évaluer et de sélectionner parmi les logiciels commerciaux de POA disponibles sur le marché celui qui satisfait au mieux les besoins de l’entreprise. Trois sous objectifs ont été identifiés : la cartographie des processus de planification et d’ordonnancement de l’entreprise, la capture des besoins de l’entreprise et la conception d’une nouvelle méthodologie de sélection intégrant sous incertitude à la fois les besoins de l’entreprise et les critères et sous critères de sélection. La méthodologie adoptée pour cette étude est celle dictée par la science de la conception, qui permet l’itération du processus de conception afin de perfectionner et de valider les résultats ou les livrables obtenus. Des données sont recueillies auprès d’experts et des preneurs de décisions internes à l’entreprise à l’aide d’entrevues individuelles et de groupes. Par ailleurs, en guise de contributions de cette recherche, trois méthodes ont été conçues. La première méthode permet de cartographier les processus de l’entreprise. La deuxième méthode est destinée à la capture des besoins de l’entreprise tandis que la troisième méthode intègre le déploiement de la fonction qualité (DFQ), l’analyse hiérarchique des processus (AHP) et la méthode VIKOR pour la sélection du logiciel qui satisfait au mieux les besoins de l’entreprise. Cette intégration est rendue possible en mettant en place une version modifiée du DFQ. L’incertitude sur les données provenant des enquêtes adressées aux experts et aux preneurs de décision est considérée par l’utilisation de la logique floue et des variables linguistiques. L’approche globale de l’étude est appliquée à un cas réel d’entreprise manufacturière. Les résultats montrent la pertinence des méthodes développées face au problème de selection d’un logiciel de POA