Statistical Mechanics and Information-Theoretic Perspectives on Complexity in the Earth System

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Quality of Information in Mobile Crowdsensing: Survey and Research Challenges

Smartphones have become the most pervasive devices in people's lives, and are clearly transforming the way we live and perceive technology. Today's smartphones benefit from almost ubiquitous Internet connectivity and come equipped with a plethora of inexpensive yet powerful embedded sensors, such as accelerometer, gyroscope, microphone, and camera. This unique combination has enabled revolutionary applications based on the mobile crowdsensing paradigm, such as real-time road traffic monitoring, air and noise pollution, crime control, and wildlife monitoring, just to name a few. Differently from prior sensing paradigms, humans are now the primary actors of the sensing process, since they become fundamental in retrieving reliable and up-to-date information about the event being monitored. As humans may behave unreliably or maliciously, assessing and guaranteeing Quality of Information (QoI) becomes more important than ever. In this paper, we provide a new framework for defining and enforcing the QoI in mobile crowdsensing, and analyze in depth the current state-of-the-art on the topic. We also outline novel research challenges, along with possible directions of future work.Comment: To appear in ACM Transactions on Sensor Networks (TOSN

Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

Modeling and control of complex dynamic systems: Applied mathematical aspects

The concept of complex dynamic systems arises in many varieties, including the areas of energy generation, storage and distribution, ecosystems, gene regulation and health delivery, safety and security systems, telecommunications, transportation networks, and the rapidly emerging research topics seeking to understand and analyse. Such systems are often concurrent and distributed, because they have to react to various kinds of events, signals, and conditions. They may be characterized by a system with uncertainties, time delays, stochastic perturbations, hybrid dynamics, distributed dynamics, chaotic dynamics, and a large number of algebraic loops. This special issue provides a platform for researchers to report their recent results on various mathematical methods and techniques for modelling and control of complex dynamic systems and identifying critical issues and challenges for future investigation in this field. This special issue amazingly attracted one-hundred-and eighteen submissions, and twenty-eight of them are selected through a rigorous review procedure

Statistical Traffic State Analysis in Large-scale Transportation Networks Using Locality-Preserving Non-negative Matrix Factorization

Statistical traffic data analysis is a hot topic in traffic management and control. In this field, current research progresses focus on analyzing traffic flows of individual links or local regions in a transportation network. Less attention are paid to the global view of traffic states over the entire network, which is important for modeling large-scale traffic scenes. Our aim is precisely to propose a new methodology for extracting spatio-temporal traffic patterns, ultimately for modeling large-scale traffic dynamics, and long-term traffic forecasting. We attack this issue by utilizing Locality-Preserving Non-negative Matrix Factorization (LPNMF) to derive low-dimensional representation of network-level traffic states. Clustering is performed on the compact LPNMF projections to unveil typical spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of network-level traffic states. We have tested the proposed method on simulated traffic data generated for a large-scale road network, and reported experimental results validate the ability of our approach for extracting meaningful large-scale space-time traffic patterns. Furthermore, the derived clustering results provide an intuitive understanding of spatial-temporal characteristics of traffic flows in the large-scale network, and a basis for potential long-term forecasting.Comment: IET Intelligent Transport Systems (2013

Drought index downscaling using AI-based ensemble technique and satellite data

This study introduces and validates an artificial intelligence (AI)–based downscaling method for Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI) in the northwest of Iran, utilizing PERSSIAN-CDR data and MODIS-derived drought-dependent variables. The correlation between SPI and two drought-dependent variables at a spatial resolution of 0.25° from 2000 to 2015 served as the basis for predicting SPI values at a finer spatial resolution of 0.05° for the period spanning 2016 to 2021. Shallow AI models (Support Vector Regression, Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System, Feedforward Neural Network) and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning method are employed for downscaling, followed by an ensemble post-processing technique for shallow AI models. Validation against rain gauge data indicates that all methods improve SPI simulation compared to PERSIANN-CDR products. The ensemble technique excels by 20% and 25% in the training and test phases, respectively, achieving the mean Determination Coefficient (DC) score of 0.67 in the validation phase. Results suggest that the deep learning LSTM method is less suitable for limited observed data compared to ensemble techniques. Additionally, the proposed methodology successfully detects approximately 80% of drought conditions. Notably, SPI-6 outperforms other temporal scales. This study advances the understanding of AI-driven downscaling for SPI, emphasizing the efficacy of ensemble approaches and providing valuable insights for regions with limited observational data.</p

Characterization of process-oriented hydrologic model behavior with temporal sensitivity analysis for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments

This paper presents a detailed analysis of 10 flash flood events in the Mediterranean region using the distributed hydrological model MARINE. Characterizing catchment response during flash flood events may provide new and valuable insight into the dynamics involved for extreme catchment response and their dependency on physiographic properties and flood severity. The main objective of this study is to analyze flash-flood-dedicated hydrologic model sensitivity with a new approach in hydrology, allowing model outputs variance decomposition for temporal patterns of parameter sensitivity analysis. Such approaches enable ranking of uncertainty sources for nonlinear and nonmonotonic mappings with a low computational cost. Hydrologic model and sensitivity analysis are used as learning tools on a large flash flood dataset. With Nash performances above 0.73 on average for this extended set of 10 validation events, the five sensitive parameters of MARINE process-oriented distributed model are analyzed. This contribution shows that soil depth explains more than 80% of model output variance when most hydrographs are peaking. Moreover, the lateral subsurface transfer is responsible for 80% of model variance for some catchment-flood events’ hydrographs during slow-declining limbs. The unexplained variance of model output representing interactions between parameters reveals to be very low during modeled flood peaks and informs that model parsimonious parameterization is appropriate to tackle the problem of flash floods. Interactions observed after model initialization or rainfall intensity peaks incite to improve water partition representation between flow components and initialization itself. This paper gives a practical framework for application of this method to other models, landscapes and climatic conditions, potentially helping to improve processes understanding and representation

Bio-Inspired Approach to Modelling Retinal Ganglion Cells using System Identification Techniques

The processing capabilities of biological vision systems are still vastly superior to artificial vision, even though this has been an active area of research for over half a century. Current artificial vision techniques integrate many insights from biology yet they remain far-off the capabilities of animals and humans in terms of speed, power, and performance. A key aspect to modeling the human visual system is the ability to accurately model the behavior and computation within the retina. In particular, we focus on modeling the retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) as they convey the accumulated data of real world images as action potentials onto the visual cortex via the optic nerve. Computational models that approximate the processing that occurs within RGCs can be derived by quantitatively fitting the sets of physiological data using an input–output analysis where the input is a known stimulus and the output is neuronal recordings. Currently, these input–output responses are modeled using computational combinations of linear and nonlinear models that are generally complex and lack any relevance to the underlying biophysics. In this paper, we illustrate how system identification techniques, which take inspiration from biological systems, can accurately model retinal ganglion cell behavior, and are a viable alternative to traditional linear–nonlinear approaches