Distance ratio: an exploratory application to compare complex networks

Books of Abastracts disponível em http://eccs2012.ulb.ac.be/media/eccs_handbook_web.pdfThis paper describes an experimental application of the distance ratio measure used to compare individual networks among themselves and to analyze the aggregated network representing the group mental model from the field of emergency management. The data was obtained by surveying a group of Civil Protection graduates and aggregating all the answers (shared mental model). The data allowed us to deepen the analysis of the resulting network in order to research for differences among networks

Where are the gaps? Constructively Aligning Higher Education in an Entrepreneurial Ecosystem

This working paper is part of developmental research conducted in 2021 for the EntreUnity (Entrepreneurial University Network) project, an Initiative for Innovation Capacity Building in Higher Education. The project involved a series of scanning and mapping exercises to support the development of entrepreneurial ecosystems within Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). Based on this preliminary work, it became evident that the combined tools used in the study could potentially form a framework. This framework could help HEIs identify gaps in their entrepreneurial ecosystems, including both internal structures and alignment with the local and regional ecosystems they are part of. This paper outlines the methodology adopted in this project and discusses the insights that emerged. These insights have since been used to strengthen the University of the West of Scotland's (UWS) place within the local entrepreneurial ecosystem. Importantly, we are not suggesting universal applicability. What worked at UWS may not work for other HEIs. Instead, we propose a context-neutral model that allows visualisation and discussion of an ecosystem within its immediate regional and broader contexts, facilitating a constructive comparison with other ecosystems. Based on this, this working paper sets out plans for further research and development to produce a replicable model for broader application in mapping these ecosystems elsewhere.<br/

Human Interpretation of Trade-Off Diagrams in Multi-Objective Problems: Implications for Developing Interactive Decision Support Systems

The growing need for efficient and effective human decision-makers warrants a better understanding of how decision support systems (DSS) guide users to improved decisions. Decision support approaches utilize visual aids to assist decision-making, including trade-off diagrams. These visualizations help comprehension of key trade-offs among decision alternatives. However, little is known about the role of trade-off diagrams in human decision-making and the best way to present them. Here, we discuss an empirical study with two goals: 1) evaluating DSS interactivity and 2) identifying decision-making strategies with trade-off diagrams. We specifically investigate the value of interface interactivity and problem context as users make nine increasingly complex decisions. Our results suggest that problem context and interactivity separately influence ability to navigate trade-off diagrams

Modelling the socio-political feasibility of energy transition with system dynamics

A system dynamics model of energy transition, TEMPEST, represents political and societal factors along with energy, emissions and mitigation measures, within a system of feedbacks. TEMPEST simulates energy transition from 1980 to 2080, calibrated to UK historical data. An exogenous uncertainty analysis showed most cases would achieve net zero before 2080, but only 20% would stay within the required carbon budget. Low probability, high impact cases have twice the future cumulative emissions than the best cases. High political capital for energy transition early on would likely reduce total mitigation required, but risks public pushback. Endogenous uncertainty about pushback and new measure difficulty could increase total emissions by a quarter. Dealing with unwanted feedbacks between society and government that reduce political capital will require responsive policy making. The socio-political feasibility of achieving the UK's net zero target is likely less than the techno-economic feasibility estimated through standard energy systems models

Critical learning incidents in system dynamics modelling engagements

This paper reports in-depth behavioural operational research to explore how individual clients learned to resolve dynamically complex problems in system dynamics model-based engagements. Consultant-client dyads were interviewed in ten system dynamics consulting engagements to identify individual clients' Critical Learning Incidents—defined as the moment of surprise caused after one's mental model produces unexpected failure and a change in one’s mental model produces the desired result. The cases are reprised from interviews and include assessments of the nature of the engagement problem, the form of system dynamics model, and the methods employed by consultants during each phase of the engagement. Reported Critical Learning Incidents are noted by engagement phase and consulting method, and constructivist learning theory is used to describe a pattern of learning. Outcomes of the research include describing the role of different methods applied in engagement phases (for example, the role of concept models to commence problem identification and to introduce iconography and jargon to the engagement participants), how model form associates with timings of Critical Learning Incidents, and the role of social mediation and negotiation in the learning process

Potential Data Collections Methods for System Dynamics Modelling: A Brief Overview

System Dynamics (SD) modelling is a highly complex process. Although the SD methodology has been discussed extensively in most breakthroughs and present literature, discussions on data collection methods for SD modelling are not explained in details in most studies. To date, comprehensive descriptions of knowledge extraction for SD modelling is still scarce in the literature either. In an attempt to fill in the gap, three primary groups of data sources proposed by Forrester: (1) mental database, (2) written database and (3) numerical database, were reviewed, including the potential data collections methods for each database by taking into account the advancement of current computer and information technology. The contributions of this paper come in three folds. First, this paper highlights the potential data sources that deserved to be acknowledged and reflected in the SD domain. Second, this paper provides insights into the appropriate mix and match of data collection methods for SD development. Third, this paper provides a practical synthesis of potential data sources and their suitability according to the SD modelling stage, which can serve as modelling practice guidelines

Understanding the maternal and child health system response to payment for performance in Tanzania using a causal loop diagram approach.

Payment for performance (P4P) has been employed in low and middle-income (LMIC) countries to improve quality and coverage of maternal and child health (MCH) services. However, there is a lack of consensus on how P4P affects health systems. There is a need to evaluate P4P effects on health systems using methods suitable for evaluating complex systems. We developed a causal loop diagram (CLD) to further understand the pathways to impact of P4P on delivery and uptake of MCH services in Tanzania. The CLD was developed and validated using qualitative data from a process evaluation of a P4P scheme in Tanzania, with additional stakeholder dialogue sought to strengthen confidence in the diagram. The CLD maps the interacting mechanisms involved in provider achievement of targets, reporting of health information, and population care seeking, and identifies those mechanisms affected by P4P. For example, the availability of drugs and medical commodities impacts not only provider achievement of P4P targets but also demand of services and is impacted by P4P through the availability of additional facility resources and the incentivisation of district managers to reduce drug stock outs. The CLD also identifies mechanisms key to facility achievement of targets but are not within the scope of the programme; the activities of health facility governing committees and community health workers, for example, are key to demand stimulation and effective resource use at the facility level but both groups were omitted from the incentive system. P4P design considerations generated from this work include appropriately incentivising the availability of drugs and staffing in facilities and those responsible for demand creation in communities. Further research using CLDs to study heath systems in LMIC is urgently needed to further our understanding of how systems respond to interventions and how to strengthen systems to deliver better coverage and quality of care

Teoria dos modelos mentais e construto da experiência da marca: um estudo de caso em uma escola de negócios chilena

This study seeks to apply the semantic mental models theory to a Chilean business school educational service for the first time. A qualitative study (focus group, narrative analysis) allowed to design a survey applied to 200 undergraduate students where they described their service experience and willingness to recommend the brand. The result is a construct from which a mental model of diversity and excellence is inferred, and it is positively related to the willingness of recommending the brand. The construct varies according to age. Relationships between mental model and brand experience are explored. It is suggested that in order to increase recommendations, the management effort in business schools aims at creating consistent consumption experiences rather than just enjoyable ones.Se busca aplicar, por primera vez, la teoría de modelos mentales semánticos al servicio educativo de una escuela de negocios chilena. Un estudio cualitativo (focus group, análisis narrativo) permite diseñar una encuesta aplicada a 200 alumnos de pregrado, para describir su experiencia de servicio y su disposición a recomendar la marca. El resultado es un constructo del que se infiere un modelo mental de diversidad y excelencia, relacionado positivamente con la disposición a recomendar la marca. El constructo varía según la edad. Se exploran relaciones entre modelo mental y experiencia de marca. Se sugiere que, para aumentar las recomendaciones, el esfuerzo gerencial en las escuelas de negocios podría apuntar a lograr experiencias de consumos coherentes y no solo agradables.O objetivo é aplicar, pela primeira vez, a teoria dos modelos mentais semânticos ao serviço educacional de uma escola de negócios chilena. Um estudo qualitativo (grupo focal, analise narrativa) permite projetar uma pesquisa aplicada a 200 estudantes de graduação, para descrever sua experiência de serviço e sua vontade de recomendar a marca. O resultado é um construto a partir do qual é inferido um modelo de diversidade e excelência, relacionado positivamente à vontade de recomendar a marca. O construto varia de acordo com a idade. As relações entre o modelo mental e a experiência da marca são exploradas. Sugere-se que, para aumentar as recomendações, o esforço gerencial nas escolas de administração poderia ter como objetivo obter experiências de consumos consistentes e não apenas agradáveis