A spatial sensitivity analysis of a spatially explicit model for myxomatosis in Belgium

Motivated by their ability to mimic complex biological and natural processes, many spatially explicit models (SEMs) have been proposed during the last two decades for simulating such processes. Yet, a sensitivity analysis (SA) of such models is typically not performed, or model sensitivity is only studied over time on the basis of aggregated quantities, due to the lack of an appropriate framework. Taking a SEM for myxomatosis among European rabbits in Belgium as a model SEM, we conduct a spatial SA and investigate to what extent the sensitivity of this model varies spatially and whether or not this should become common practice when developing a SEM

Proceedings of the 2017 Littoral conference ‘Change, Naturalness and People’

The 2017 Littoral conference was held 5-7 September 2017, hosted by Liverpool Hope University on behalf of the European Union Coastal Community (EUCC). This issue collects selected proceedings from the conference highlighting the conference's diversity and scope. The papers showcase current challenges faced in the coastal environment and the research being conducted to better understand them

Proceedings of the 2017 Littoral conference: ‘Change, Naturalness and People’

The 2017 Littoral conference was held 5-7 September 2017, hosted by Liverpool Hope University on behalf of the European Union Coastal Community (EUCC). This issue collects selected proceedings from the conference highlighting the conference's diversity and scope. The papers showcase current challenges faced in the coastal environment and the research being conducted to better understand them

The Dynamical Theory of Coevolution

A unifying framework is presented for describing the phenotypic coevolutionary dynamics of a general ecological community. We start from an individual-based approach allowing for the interaction of an arbitrary number of species. The adaptive dynamics of species' trait values are derived from the underlying population dynamics within the community; in consequence, the evolutionary process is driven by ecological change. We present a hierarchy of dynamical models for the investigation of coevolutionary systems. The necessity of stochastic treatment is demonstrated and deterministic approximations are derived where appropriate. The mathematical framework advanced here to our knowledge is the first one to combine the individual-based, stochastic perspective with a fully dynamical analysis of the phenotypic coevolutionary process. The hierarchy of models presented is particularly geared to infer evolutionary predictions from ecological assumptions. Applications to evolutionary dynamics both in predator-prey systems and under asymmetric competition demonstrate the versatility of our approach. Rich coevolutionary patterns are obtained and novel evolutionary phenomena are revealed. Deductions are given to derive various well-known equations from the literature of evolutionary modelling. Consequently the different domains of validity for these models are delineated and several ad-hoc assumptions are removed. In particular, equations central to the fields of evolutionary game theory, adaptive dynamics, replicator dynamics and reaction-diffusion models of phenotypic evolution are recovered and are identified as special cases within a dynamical theory of coevolution

Wildlife Protection and Habitat Management

The management of wildlife populations and their habitats are interdisciplinary fields that encompass many scientific disciplines that also impact the lives of people. Therefore, these are truly applied sciences where human dimensions play an important role.This book highlights the importance of conducting rigorous studies to design and implement the effective management and restoration of wild populations and their habitats. A new paradigm in conservation is developing that goes beyond the boundaries of protected areas to achieve the goal of sustainable development. The 16 papers in this book, including reviews and a project report, cover a broad range of topics, exploring a diversity of subjects that are representative of current practices and novel applications.We would like to thank both the MDPI publishers and editorial staff for their support and help during the process of editing this book, in addition to the authors for their contributions

Sarcoptic mange and the demography of the red fox, Vulpes vulpes

Vertebrate species are managed for many reasons, including their role as economically important predators or as carriers of disease. Successful management depends on the ability to predict the outcome of management actions on a species’ population dynamics. However, uncertainty in the models used to make such predictions can arise from multiple sources, including sampling error in vital rates, intraspecific demographic variation and unknown interspecific interactions. The red fox Vulpes vulpes provides a useful model organism for exploring such uncertainty, because management of this important predator and disease host is often ineffective, despite substantial sampling effort. By explicitly accounting for sampling error in survival and fecundity, confidence intervals for population growth rates were derived from published point estimates of red fox demographic data. Uncertainty in population growth rates was found to be high, requiring a quadrupling of sampling effort to halve the confidence intervals. Given the often poor justification for the choice of distribution used to model litter size, the influence of probability distributions on population model outcomes was tested. In this first comprehensive evaluation, estimates of quasi-extinction and disease control probabilities for three Canid species were found to be robust to litter size distribution choice. Demographic analyses of the red fox revealed a medium to fast life history speed and significant survival and fecundity contributions from juveniles to population growth. Intraspecific variation was detected within these spectra of demographic metrics: the first such demonstration for carnivores. Simulated data substitution between fox populations revealed that geographic proximity and similar levels of anthropogenic disturbance did not infer demographic similarity. Considering the sampling effort expended on the red fox, the species appears well-studied; yet, substantial limitations in data collection were identified. Compartment modelling of a sarcoptic mange outbreak in an urban fox population in Bristol, UK, revealed that disease transmission was frequency-dependent, consistent with contact rates being determined by social interactions rather than by population density. Individual-based modelling suggested that indirect transmission, genetic resistance and long-distance recolonisation were required to replicate the observed rapid spread of mange and subsequent population recovery. Thus, this first attempt to model mange dynamics in this canid provided novel insight into previously uncertain epidemiological and behavioural processes in the transmission of sarcoptic mange in the red fox

Modelling the spread of an invasive woody taxon: Rhododendron ponticum L.

Simulation of the present-day distribution and abundance of rialRhododendron ponticum L. at the Glen Etive study site in the Western Highlands of Scotland was achieved using a simple deterministic model (MIGRATE). The model utilises the demographic and dispersal parameters characteristic to a species and a knowledge of the environmental history of the area through which it spreads to simulate patterns of spread. Biotic parameter values were derived from simple field measures and from data in the literature. "Habitat maps" were constructed on the basis of observations made in the field as to the likely relationships of Rhododendron to biotic and abiotic features of the habitat. Habitat features and their attributes were digitised and recorded in an ARC/INFO Geographical Information System (GIS). The simulation of changes in habitat through time was attempted using different habitat maps composed of cells containing unique values for relative carrying capacities, which were representative of the state of the habitat at a certain time. These habitat maps could only influence the dynamics of spread at the intervals between generations. Implementation of habitat changes was dependent on the cohort structure of the model which limited the resolution and exact order of changes that could be taken into account. Model simulations were tested for accuracy against the present-day distribution and abundance of the invading population as mapped in the field, and as seen in aerial photographs from 1946."Null" simulations showed that environmental factors were important determinants of the migration rate. Having achieved accurate simulation of a past and present distribution at a fine spatial scale from two initial foci of introduction in 1910, predictions were made as to the likely pattern of future spread. Predictions for the future were then made considering the effects of control regimes. The importance of the implications of the pattern of spread to migration research and to conservationists, considering the ecological impacts of Rhododendron observed at the study site are discussed in relation to previous findings. More specifically the importance of the long-distance dispersal function to the invasion process is highlighted, and it is suggested that evolution should favour strategies resulting in long-distance dispersal. The reason for large seed crops is discussed in this light. This project represents an integration of field techniques, biotic data available from the literature, a deterministic model, a GIS and aerial photography

Emerging viral diseases of pollinating insects

The risks posed by rapidly evolving RNA viruses to human and animal health are well recognized. Epidemics in managed and wildlife populations can lead to considerable economic and biodiversity losses. Yet, we lack understanding of the ecological and evolutionary factors that promote disease emergence. Host-switching viruses may be a particular threat to species important for human welfare, such as pollinating bees. Both honeybees and wild bumblebees have faced sharp declines in the last decades, with high winter mortality seen in honeybees. Infectious and emerging diseases are considered one of the key drivers of declines, acting in synergy with habitat loss and pesticide use. Here I focus on multihost viruses that pose a risk to wild bumblebees. I first identify the risk factors driving viral spillover and emergence from managed honeybees to wild bumblebees, by synthesising current data and literature. Biological factors (i.e. the nature of RNA viruses and ecology of social bees) play a clear role in increasing the risk of disease emergence, but anthropogenic factors (trade and transportation of commercial honeybees and bumblebees) creates the greatest risk of viral spillover to wild bees. Basic knowledge of the pathogenic effect of many common pollinator viruses on hosts other than A. mellifera is currently lacking, yet vital for understanding the wider impacts of infection at a population level. Here, I provide evidence that a common bumblebee virus, Slow bee paralysis virus (SBPV), reduces the longevity of Bombus terrestris under conditions of nutrition stress. The invasion of Varroa destructor as an ectoparasitic viral vector in European honeybees has dramatically altered viral dynamics in honeybees. I test how this specialist honeybee vector affects multi-host pathogens that can infect and be transmitted by both honeybees and wild bumblebees. I sampled across three host species (A. mellifera, B. terrestris and B. pascuorum) from Varroa-free and Varroa-present locations. Using a combination of molecular and phylogenetic techniques I find that this specialist honeybee vector increases the prevalence of four multi-host viruses (deformed wing virus (type A and B), SBPV and black queen cell virus) in sympatric wild bumblebees. Furthermore, wild bumblebees are currently experiencing a DWV epidemic driven by the presence of virus-vectoring Varroa in A. mellifera. Overall this thesis demonstrates that wild bumblebees are at high risk of viral disease emergence. My research adds to the ever-expanding body of evidence indicating that stronger disease controls on commercial bee operations are crucial to protect our wild bumblebees.NERC C. B. Dennis Trust The Genetics Societ