State-of-the-Art Using Bibliometric Analysis of Wind-Speed and -Power Forecasting Methods Applied in Power Systems

The integration of wind energy into power systems has intensified as a result of the urgency for global energy transition. This requires more accurate forecasting techniques that can capture the variability of the wind resource to achieve better operative performance of power systems. This paper presents an exhaustive review of the state-of-the-art of wind-speed and -power forecasting models for wind turbines located in different segments of power systems, i.e., in large wind farms, distributed generation, microgrids, and micro-wind turbines installed in residences and buildings. This review covers forecasting models based on statistical and physical, artificial intelligence, and hybrid methods, with deterministic or probabilistic approaches. The literature review is carried out through a bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer and Pajek software. A discussion of the results is carried out, taking as the main approach the forecast time horizon of the models to identify their applications. The trends indicate a predominance of hybrid forecast models for the analysis of power systems, especially for those with high penetration of wind power. Finally, it is determined that most of the papers analyzed belong to the very short-term horizon, which indicates that the interest of researchers is in this time horizon

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

Effect of traffic dataset on various machine-learning algorithms when forecasting air quality

© Emerald Publishing Limited. This is the accepted manuscript version of an article which has been published in final form at https://10.1108/JEDT-10-2021-0554Purpose (limit 100 words) Road traffic emissions are generally believed to contribute immensely to air pollution, but the effect of road traffic datasets on air quality predictions has not been clearly investigated. This research investigates the effects traffic dataset have on the performance of Machine Learning (ML) predictive models in air quality prediction. Design/methodology/approach (limit 100 words) To achieve this, we have set up an experiment with the control dataset having only the Air Quality (AQ) dataset and Meteorological (Met) dataset. While the experimental dataset is made up of the AQ dataset, Met dataset and Traffic dataset. Several ML models (such as Extra Trees Regressor, eXtreme Gradient Boosting Regressor, Random Forest Regressor, K-Neighbors Regressor, and five others) were trained, tested, and compared on these individual combinations of datasets to predict the volume of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and O3 in the atmosphere at various time of the day. Findings (limit 100 words) The result obtained showed that various ML algorithms react differently to the traffic dataset despite generally contributing to the performance improvement of all the ML algorithms considered in this study by at least 20% and an error reduction of at least 18.97%. Research limitations/implications (limit 100 words) This research is limited in terms of the study area and the result cannot be generalized outside of the UK as many conditions may not be similar elsewhere. Additionally, only the ML algorithms commonly used in literature are considered in this research. Therefore, leaving out a few other ML algorithms. Practical implications (limit 100 words) This study reinforces the belief that the traffic dataset has a significant effect on improving the performance of air pollution ML prediction models. Hence, there is an indication that ML algorithms behave differently when trained with a form traffic dataset in the development of an air quality prediction model. This implies that developers and researchers in air quality prediction need to identify the ML algorithms that behave in their best interest before implementation. Originality/value (limit 100 words) This will enable researchers to focus more on algorithms of benefit when using traffic datasets in air quality prediction.Peer reviewe

Machine Learning with Metaheuristic Algorithms for Sustainable Water Resources Management

The main aim of this book is to present various implementations of ML methods and metaheuristic algorithms to improve modelling and prediction hydrological and water resources phenomena having vital importance in water resource management

Big Data Analysis application in the renewable energy market: wind power

Entre as enerxías renovables, a enerxía eólica e unha das tecnoloxías mundiais de rápido crecemento. Non obstante, esta incerteza debería minimizarse para programar e xestionar mellor os activos de xeración tradicionais para compensar a falta de electricidade nas redes electricas. A aparición de técnicas baseadas en datos ou aprendizaxe automática deu a capacidade de proporcionar predicións espaciais e temporais de alta resolución da velocidade e potencia do vento. Neste traballo desenvólvense tres modelos diferentes de ANN, abordando tres grandes problemas na predición de series de datos con esta técnica: garantía de calidade de datos e imputación de datos non válidos, asignación de hiperparámetros e selección de funcións. Os modelos desenvolvidos baséanse en técnicas de agrupación, optimización e procesamento de sinais para proporcionar predicións de velocidade e potencia do vento a curto e medio prazo (de minutos a horas)

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

An interpretable multi-stage forecasting framework for energy consumption and CO2 emissions for the transportation sector

The transportation sector is deemed one of the primary sources of energy consumption and greenhouse gases throughout the world. To realise and design sustainable transport, it is imperative to comprehend relationships and evaluate interactions among a set of variables, which may influence transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Unlike recent published papers, this study strives to achieve a balance between machine learning (ML) model accuracy and model interpretability using the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) method for forecasting the energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the UK's transportation sector. To this end, this paper proposes an interpretable multi-stage forecasting framework to simultaneously maximise the ML model accuracy and determine the relationship between the predictions and the influential variables by revealing the contribution of each variable to the predictions. For the UK's transportation sector, the experimental results indicate that road carbon intensity is found to be the most contributing variable to both energy consumption and CO2 emissions predictions. Unlike other studies, population and GDP per capita are found to be uninfluential variables. The proposed multi-stage forecasting framework may assist policymakers in making more informed energy decisions and establishing more accurate investment

Development of Machine Learning Based Analytical Tools for Pavement Performance Assessment and Crack Detection

Pavement Management System (PMS) analytical tools mainly consist of pavement condition investigation and evaluation tools, pavement condition rating and assessment tools, pavement performance prediction tools, treatment prioritizations and implementation tools. The effectiveness of a PMS highly depends on the efficiency and reliability of its pavement condition evaluation tools. Traditionally, pavement condition investigation and evaluation practices are based on manual distress surveys and performance level assessments, which have been blamed for low efficiency low reliability. Those kinds of manually surveys are labor intensive and unsafe due to proximity to live traffic conditions. Meanwhile, the accuracy can be lower due to the subjective nature of the evaluators. Considering these factors, semiautomated and automated pavement condition evaluation tools had been developed for several years. In current years, it is undoubtable that highly advanced computerized technologies have resulted successful applications in diverse engineering fields. Therefore, these techniques can be successfully incorporated into pavement condition evaluation distress detection, the analytical tools can improve the performance of existing PMSs. Hence, this research aims to bridge the gaps between highly advanced Machine Learning Techniques (MLTs) and the existing analytical tools of current PMSs. The research outputs intend to provide pavement condition evaluation tools that meet the requirement of high efficiency, accuracy, and reliability. To achieve the objectives of this research, six pavement damage condition and performance evaluation methodologies are developed. The roughness condition of pavement surface directly influences the riding quality of the users. International Roughness Index (IRI) is used worldwide by research institutions, pavement condition evaluation and management agencies to evaluate the roughness condition of the pavement. IRI is a time-dependent variable which generally tends to increase with the increase of the pavement service life. In this consideration, a multi-granularity fuzzy time series analysis based IRI prediction model is developed. Meanwhile, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method is used for model optimization to obtain satisfactory IRI prediction results. Historical IRI data extracted from the InfoPave website have been used for training and testing the model. Experiment results proved the effectiveness of this method. Automated pavement condition evaluation tools can provide overall performance indices, which can then be used for treatment planning. The calculations of those performance indices are required for surface distress level and roughness condition evaluations. However, pavement surface roughness conditions are hard to obtain from surface image indicators. With this consideration, an image indicators-based pavement roughness and the overall performance prediction tools are developed. The state-of-the-art machine learning technique, XGBoost, is utilized as the main method in model training, validating and testing. In order to find the dominant image indicators that influence the pavement roughness condition and the overall performance conditions, the comprehensive pavement performance evaluation data collected by ARAN 900 are analyzed. Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) is used to develop the performance prediction models. On this basis, the mean important values (MIVs) for each input factor are calculated to evaluate the contributions of the input indicators. It has been observed that indicators of the wheel path cracking have the highest MIVs, which emphasizes the importance of cracking-focused maintenance treatments. The same issue is also found that current automated pavement condition evaluation systems only include the analysis of pavement surface distresses, without considering the structural capacity of the actual pavement. Hence, the structural performance analysis-based pavement performance prediction tools are developed using the Support Vector Machines (SVMs). To guarantee the overall performance of the proposed methodologies, heuristic methods including Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are selected to optimize the model. The experiments results show a promising future of machine learning based pavement structural performance prediction. Automated pavement condition analyzers usually detect pavement surface distress through the collected pavement surface images. Then, distress types, severities, quantities, and other parameters are calculated for the overall performance index calculation. Cracks are one of the most important pavement surface distresses that should be quantified. Traditional approaches are less accurate and efficient in locating, counting and quantifying various types of cracks initialed on the pavement surface. An integrated Crack Deep Net (CrackDN) is developed based on deep learning technologies. Through model training, validation and testing, it has proved that CrackDN can detect pavement surface cracks on complex background with high accuracy. Moreover, the combination of box-level pavement crack locating, and pixel-level crack calculation can achieve comprehensive crack analysis. Thereby, more effective maintenance treatments can be assigned. Hence, a methodology regarding pixel-level crack detection which is called CrackU-net, is proposed. CrackU-net is composed of several convolutional, maxpooling, and up-convolutional layers. The model is developed based on the innovations of deep learning-based segmentation. Pavement crack data are collected by multiple devices, including automated pavement condition survey vehicles, smartphones, and action cameras. The proposed CrackU-net is tested on a separate crack image set which has not been used for training the model. The results demonstrate a promising future of use in the PMSs. Finally, the proposed toolboxes are validated through comparative experiments in terms of accuracy (precision, recall, and F-measure) and error levels. The accuracies of all those models are higher than 0.9 and the errors are lower than 0.05. Meanwhile, the findings of this research suggest that the wheel path cracking should be a priority when conducting maintenance activity planning. Benefiting from the highly advanced machine learning technologies, pavement roughness condition and the overall performance levels have a promising future of being predicted by extraction of the image indicators. Moreover, deep learning methods can be utilized to achieve both box-level and pixel-level pavement crack detection with satisfactory performance. Therefore, it is suggested that those state-of-the-art toolboxes be integrated into current PMSs to upgrade their service levels

Development of Machine Learning Based Analytical Tools for Pavement Performance Assessment and Crack Detection

Pavement Management System (PMS) analytical tools mainly consist of pavement condition investigation and evaluation tools, pavement condition rating and assessment tools, pavement performance prediction tools, treatment prioritizations and implementation tools. The effectiveness of a PMS highly depends on the efficiency and reliability of its pavement condition evaluation tools. Traditionally, pavement condition investigation and evaluation practices are based on manual distress surveys and performance level assessments, which have been blamed for low efficiency low reliability. Those kinds of manually surveys are labor intensive and unsafe due to proximity to live traffic conditions. Meanwhile, the accuracy can be lower due to the subjective nature of the evaluators. Considering these factors, semiautomated and automated pavement condition evaluation tools had been developed for several years. In current years, it is undoubtable that highly advanced computerized technologies have resulted successful applications in diverse engineering fields. Therefore, these techniques can be successfully incorporated into pavement condition evaluation distress detection, the analytical tools can improve the performance of existing PMSs. Hence, this research aims to bridge the gaps between highly advanced Machine Learning Techniques (MLTs) and the existing analytical tools of current PMSs. The research outputs intend to provide pavement condition evaluation tools that meet the requirement of high efficiency, accuracy, and reliability. To achieve the objectives of this research, six pavement damage condition and performance evaluation methodologies are developed. The roughness condition of pavement surface directly influences the riding quality of the users. International Roughness Index (IRI) is used worldwide by research institutions, pavement condition evaluation and management agencies to evaluate the roughness condition of the pavement. IRI is a time-dependent variable which generally tends to increase with the increase of the pavement service life. In this consideration, a multi-granularity fuzzy time series analysis based IRI prediction model is developed. Meanwhile, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method is used for model optimization to obtain satisfactory IRI prediction results. Historical IRI data extracted from the InfoPave website have been used for training and testing the model. Experiment results proved the effectiveness of this method. Automated pavement condition evaluation tools can provide overall performance indices, which can then be used for treatment planning. The calculations of those performance indices are required for surface distress level and roughness condition evaluations. However, pavement surface roughness conditions are hard to obtain from surface image indicators. With this consideration, an image indicators-based pavement roughness and the overall performance prediction tools are developed. The state-of-the-art machine learning technique, XGBoost, is utilized as the main method in model training, validating and testing. In order to find the dominant image indicators that influence the pavement roughness condition and the overall performance conditions, the comprehensive pavement performance evaluation data collected by ARAN 900 are analyzed. Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) is used to develop the performance prediction models. On this basis, the mean important values (MIVs) for each input factor are calculated to evaluate the contributions of the input indicators. It has been observed that indicators of the wheel path cracking have the highest MIVs, which emphasizes the importance of cracking-focused maintenance treatments. The same issue is also found that current automated pavement condition evaluation systems only include the analysis of pavement surface distresses, without considering the structural capacity of the actual pavement. Hence, the structural performance analysis-based pavement performance prediction tools are developed using the Support Vector Machines (SVMs). To guarantee the overall performance of the proposed methodologies, heuristic methods including Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are selected to optimize the model. The experiments results show a promising future of machine learning based pavement structural performance prediction. Automated pavement condition analyzers usually detect pavement surface distress through the collected pavement surface images. Then, distress types, severities, quantities, and other parameters are calculated for the overall performance index calculation. Cracks are one of the most important pavement surface distresses that should be quantified. Traditional approaches are less accurate and efficient in locating, counting and quantifying various types of cracks initialed on the pavement surface. An integrated Crack Deep Net (CrackDN) is developed based on deep learning technologies. Through model training, validation and testing, it has proved that CrackDN can detect pavement surface cracks on complex background with high accuracy. Moreover, the combination of box-level pavement crack locating, and pixel-level crack calculation can achieve comprehensive crack analysis. Thereby, more effective maintenance treatments can be assigned. Hence, a methodology regarding pixel-level crack detection which is called CrackU-net, is proposed. CrackU-net is composed of several convolutional, maxpooling, and up-convolutional layers. The model is developed based on the innovations of deep learning-based segmentation. Pavement crack data are collected by multiple devices, including automated pavement condition survey vehicles, smartphones, and action cameras. The proposed CrackU-net is tested on a separate crack image set which has not been used for training the model. The results demonstrate a promising future of use in the PMSs. Finally, the proposed toolboxes are validated through comparative experiments in terms of accuracy (precision, recall, and F-measure) and error levels. The accuracies of all those models are higher than 0.9 and the errors are lower than 0.05. Meanwhile, the findings of this research suggest that the wheel path cracking should be a priority when conducting maintenance activity planning. Benefiting from the highly advanced machine learning technologies, pavement roughness condition and the overall performance levels have a promising future of being predicted by extraction of the image indicators. Moreover, deep learning methods can be utilized to achieve both box-level and pixel-level pavement crack detection with satisfactory performance. Therefore, it is suggested that those state-of-the-art toolboxes be integrated into current PMSs to upgrade their service levels

Control System for Electrical Power Grids with Renewables using Artificial Intelligence Methods

Modern electrical and electronic devices are very sensitive to the power supply and require steady and stable electric power. Factories may also need electric power within a specific standard range of voltage, frequency, and current to avoid defects in the production. For these reasons electric power utilities must produce an electric power of a specific standard of power quality parameters [EN50160]. Nowadays, renewable energy sources, such as wind energy and solar energy are used to generate electric power as free and clean power sources as well to reduce fuel consumption and environmental pollution as much as possible. Renewable energy, e.g. wind speed or solar irradiance, are not stable or not constant energies over the time. Therefore smart control systems (SCSs) are needed for operate the power system in optimal way which help for producing a power with good quality from renewable sources. The forecasting and prediction models play a main role in these issues and contribute as the important part of the smart control system (SCS). The main task of the SCS is to keep the generated power equal to the consumed power as well as to consider standard levels of power quality parameters as much as possible. Some of previous studies have focused on forecasting power quality parameters, power load, wind speed and solar irradiance using machine learning models as neural networks, support vector machines, fuzzy sets, and neuro fuzzy. This thesis proposes designing forecasting systems using machine learning techniques in order to be use in control and operate an electrical power system. In this study, design and tested forecasting systems related to the power and renewable energies. These systems include wind speed forecasting, power load forecasting and power quality parameters forecasting. The main part of this thesis is focus in power quality parameters forecasting in short-term, these parameters are: power frequency, magnitude of the supply voltage, total harmonic distortion of voltage (THDu), total harmonic distortion of current (THDi), and short term flicker severity (Pst) according to the definition in [EN50160]. The output of the forecasting models of power quality parameters can be used in shifting the load to run in switch time which will help for correct and optimize the quality of the power.Modern electrical and electronic devices are very sensitive to the power supply and require steady and stable electric power. Factories may also need electric power within a specific standard range of voltage, frequency, and current to avoid defects in the production. For these reasons electric power utilities must produce an electric power of a specific standard of power quality parameters [EN50160]. Nowadays, renewable energy sources, such as wind energy and solar energy are used to generate electric power as free and clean power sources as well to reduce fuel consumption and environmental pollution as much as possible. Renewable energy, e.g. wind speed or solar irradiance, are not stable or not constant energies over the time. Therefore smart control systems (SCSs) are needed for operate the power system in optimal way which help for producing a power with good quality from renewable sources. The forecasting and prediction models play a main role in these issues and contribute as the important part of the smart control system (SCS). The main task of the SCS is to keep the generated power equal to the consumed power as well as to consider standard levels of power quality parameters as much as possible. Some of previous studies have focused on forecasting power quality parameters, power load, wind speed and solar irradiance using machine learning models as neural networks, support vector machines, fuzzy sets, and neuro fuzzy. This thesis proposes designing forecasting systems using machine learning techniques in order to be use in control and operate an electrical power system. In this study, design and tested forecasting systems related to the power and renewable energies. These systems include wind speed forecasting, power load forecasting and power quality parameters forecasting. The main part of this thesis is focus in power quality parameters forecasting in short-term, these parameters are: power frequency, magnitude of the supply voltage, total harmonic distortion of voltage (THDu), total harmonic distortion of current (THDi), and short term flicker severity (Pst) according to the definition in [EN50160]. The output of the forecasting models of power quality parameters can be used in shifting the load to run in switch time which will help for correct and optimize the quality of the power.410 - Katedra elektroenergetikyvyhově