Establishment of Landslide Groundwater Level Prediction Model Based on GA-SVM and Influencing Factor Analysis

The monitoring and prediction of the landslide groundwater level is a crucial part of landslide early warning systems. In this study, Tangjiao landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA) in China was taken as a case study. Three groundwater level monitoring sensors were installed in different locations of the landslide. The monitoring data indicated that the fluctuation of groundwater level is significantly consistent with rainfall and reservoir level in time, but there is a lag. In addition, there is a spatial difference in the impact of reservoir levels on the landslide groundwater level. The data of two monitoring locations were selected for establishing the prediction model of groundwater. Combined with the qualitative and quantitative analysis, the influencing factors were selected, respectively, to establish the hybrid Genetic Algorithm-Support Vector Machine (GA-SVM) prediction model. The single-factor GA-SVM without considering influencing factors and the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model were adopted to make comparisons. The results showed that the multi-factor GA-SVM performed the best, followed by multi-factor BPNN and single-factor GA-SVM. We found that the prediction accuracy can be improved by considering the influencing factor. The proposed GA-SVM model combines the advantages of each algorithm; it can effectively construct the response relationship between groundwater level fluctuations and influencing factors. Above all, the multi-factor GA-SVM is an effective method for the prediction of landslides groundwater in the TGRA

Optimal Operation of the Multireservoir System in the Seine River Basin Using Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts

International audienceThis article investigates the improvement of the operation of a four-reservoir system in the Seine River basin, France, by use of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts and real-time control. In the current management, each reservoir is operated independently from the others and following prescribed rule-curves, designed to reduce floods and sustain low flows under the historical hydrological conditions. However, this management system is inefficient when inflows are significantly different from their seasonal average and may become even more inadequate to cope with the predicted increase in extreme events induced by climate change. In this work, a centralized real-time control system is developed to improve reservoirs operation by exploiting numerical weather forecasts that are becoming increasingly available. The proposed management system implements a well-established optimization technique, model predictive control (MPC), and its recently modified version that can incorporate uncertainties, tree-based model predictive control (TB-MPC), to account for deterministic and ensemble forecasts respectively. The management system is assessed by simulation over historical events and compared to the no-forecasts strategy based on rule-curves. Simulation results show that the proposed real-time control system largely outperforms the no-forecasts management strategy, and that explicitly considering forecast uncertainty through ensembles can compensate for the loss in performance due to forecast inaccuracy

Optimizing machine learning for agricultural productivity: A novel approach with RScv and remote sensing data over Europe

CONTEXT: Accurate estimating of crop yield is crucial for developing effective global food security strategies which can lead to reduce of hunger and more sustainable development. However, predicting crop yields is a complex task as it requires frequent monitoring of many weather and socio-economic factors over an extended period. Satellite remote sensing products have become a reliable source for climate-based variables. They are easier to obtain and provide detailed spatial and temporal coverage. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of implement a novel optimization algorithm, called Randomized Search cross validation (RScv), on various machine learning algorithms and measure the prediction accuracy enhancement. METHODS: Annual yields of four crops (Barley, Oats, Rye, and Wheat) were predicted across 20 European countries for 20 years (2000–2019). Two NASA missions, namely GPCP and GLDAS satellites, provided us with climate- and soil-based input variables. Those variables were employed as the input of four ensemble Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Ada-Boost (AB), Gradient Boost (GB), Random Forest (RF) and Extra Tree (ET)) which are faster and more adoptable compare to classic AI algorithms. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Main results show that applying RScv improves the prediction ability of all ML models over the four crops. In particular, the RScv-AB reaches the overall highest accuracy for predicting yields (R2max = 0.9). Spatial evaluation of predicting errors depicts that the proposed models were more shifted toward underestimation. An uncertainty analysis was also carried out which shows that applying ML algorithms creates higher and lowers uncertainty in Barley and Wheat respectively. SIGNIFICANCE: Considering the robustness of the optimised ML models and the global coverage of remote sensing data, our current methodology demonstrates great transferability and can be applied in other regions across the globe with higher temporal extents. In addition, this tool could be beneficial to decision makers in various sectors to improve the water allocations, deal with climate change effects and keep sustainable agricultural development.Antonio Jodar-Abellan acknowledges financial support received form the Margarita Salas Postdoc Spanish Program

Optimization Fuzzy Inference System based Particle Swarm Optimization for Onset Prediction of the Rainy Season

Rainfall which is occurred in an area explain the Onset Rainy Season (ORS). ORS is a characteristic of the rainy season which is important to know, but the characteristics of the rain itself is very difficult to predict. We use the method of Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) to predict ORS. Unfortunately, FIS is weak to determine parameters so that influences the working FIS method. In this study, we use PSO to optimize parameter of the FIS method to increase perform of the FIS method for onset prediction of the rainy season with the predictor Sea Surface Temperature Nino 3.4 and Index Ocean Dipole. We used coefficient correlation to determine the relationship between two variables as predictors and RMSE as evaluate to all methods. The experiment result has shown that the work of FIS-PSO after optimizing produced the good work with the coefficient correlation = 0.57 and RMSE = 2.96 that is the smallest value that is better performance if compared with other methods. It can be concluded that the method proposed can increase the onset prediction of the rainy season

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

Review of Sustainable Irrigation Technological Practices in Agriculture

The paper focuses on the increasing demand for water and its impact on irrigated agriculture, emphasizing the importance of effective water management. It reviews the use of soil moisture sensors, IoT, big data analytics, and machine learning in agriculture, particularly in the context of Indian agriculture. The study explores the potential of IoT technologies, such as sensors, drones, and machine learning algorithms, to optimize water usage, minimize waste, and enhance crop yields. The role of big data analytics in sustainable water irrigation management and decision support systems is highlighted. The integration of IoT and sensory systems in smart agriculture is discussed, addressing both the challenges and benefits of implementing sensory-based irrigation systems. Additionally, the paper describes an automated irrigation system developed to optimize water use for crops, utilizing a distributed wireless network of sensors and a web application. The system, powered by photovoltaic panels, demonstrated significant water savings of up to 90% compared to traditional irrigation methods in a sage crop field. The system's energy autonomy and cost-effectiveness suggest its potential utility in water-limited and geographically isolated areas