Data assimilation in the low noise regime with application to the Kuroshio

On-line data assimilation techniques such as ensemble Kalman filters and particle filters lose accuracy dramatically when presented with an unlikely observation. Such an observation may be caused by an unusually large measurement error or reflect a rare fluctuation in the dynamics of the system. Over a long enough span of time it becomes likely that one or several of these events will occur. Often they are signatures of the most interesting features of the underlying system and their prediction becomes the primary focus of the data assimilation procedure. The Kuroshio or Black Current that runs along the eastern coast of Japan is an example of such a system. It undergoes infrequent but dramatic changes of state between a small meander during which the current remains close to the coast of Japan, and a large meander during which it bulges away from the coast. Because of the important role that the Kuroshio plays in distributing heat and salinity in the surrounding region, prediction of these transitions is of acute interest. Here we focus on a regime in which both the stochastic forcing on the system and the observational noise are small. In this setting large deviation theory can be used to understand why standard filtering methods fail and guide the design of the more effective data assimilation techniques. Motivated by our analysis we propose several data assimilation strategies capable of efficiently handling rare events such as the transitions of the Kuroshio. These techniques are tested on a model of the Kuroshio and shown to perform much better than standard filtering methods.Comment: 43 pages, 12 figure

On dimension reduction in Gaussian filters

A priori dimension reduction is a widely adopted technique for reducing the computational complexity of stationary inverse problems. In this setting, the solution of an inverse problem is parameterized by a low-dimensional basis that is often obtained from the truncated Karhunen-Loeve expansion of the prior distribution. For high-dimensional inverse problems equipped with smoothing priors, this technique can lead to drastic reductions in parameter dimension and significant computational savings. In this paper, we extend the concept of a priori dimension reduction to non-stationary inverse problems, in which the goal is to sequentially infer the state of a dynamical system. Our approach proceeds in an offline-online fashion. We first identify a low-dimensional subspace in the state space before solving the inverse problem (the offline phase), using either the method of "snapshots" or regularized covariance estimation. Then this subspace is used to reduce the computational complexity of various filtering algorithms - including the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, and ensemble Kalman filter - within a novel subspace-constrained Bayesian prediction-and-update procedure (the online phase). We demonstrate the performance of our new dimension reduction approach on various numerical examples. In some test cases, our approach reduces the dimensionality of the original problem by orders of magnitude and yields up to two orders of magnitude in computational savings

Stochastic filtering via L2 projection on mixture manifolds with computer algorithms and numerical examples

We examine some differential geometric approaches to finding approximate solutions to the continuous time nonlinear filtering problem. Our primary focus is a new projection method for the optimal filter infinite dimensional Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE), based on the direct L2 metric and on a family of normal mixtures. We compare this method to earlier projection methods based on the Hellinger distance/Fisher metric and exponential families, and we compare the L2 mixture projection filter with a particle method with the same number of parameters, using the Levy metric. We prove that for a simple choice of the mixture manifold the L2 mixture projection filter coincides with a Galerkin method, whereas for more general mixture manifolds the equivalence does not hold and the L2 mixture filter is more general. We study particular systems that may illustrate the advantages of this new filter over other algorithms when comparing outputs with the optimal filter. We finally consider a specific software design that is suited for a numerically efficient implementation of this filter and provide numerical examples.Comment: Updated and expanded version published in the Journal reference below. Preprint updates: January 2016 (v3) added projection of Zakai Equation and difference with projection of Kushner-Stratonovich (section 4.1). August 2014 (v2) added Galerkin equivalence proof (Section 5) to the March 2013 (v1) versio

Recursive forward dynamics for multiple robot arms moving a common task object

Recursive forward dynamics algorithms are developed for an arbitrary number of robot arms moving a commonly held object. The multiarm forward dynamics problem is to find the angular accelerations at the joints and the contact forces that the arms impart to the task object. The problem also involves finding the acceleration of this object. The multiarm forward dynamics solutions provide a thorough physical and mathematical understanding of the way several arms behave in response to a set of applied joint moments. Such an understanding simplifies and guides the subsequent control design and experimentation process. The forward dynamics algorithms also provide the necessary analytical foundation for conducting analysis and simulation studies. The multiarm algorithms are based on the filtering and smoothing approach recently advanced for single-arm dynamics, and they can be built up modularly from the single-arm algorithms. The algorithms compute recursively the joint-angle accelerations, the contact forces, and the task-object accelerations. Algorithms are also developed to evaluate in closed form the linear transformations from the active joint moments to the joint-angle accelerations, to the task-object accelerations., and to the task-object contact forces. A possible computing architecture is presented as a precursor to a more complete investigation of the computational performance of the dynamics algorithms

Optimization viewpoint on Kalman smoothing, with applications to robust and sparse estimation

In this paper, we present the optimization formulation of the Kalman filtering and smoothing problems, and use this perspective to develop a variety of extensions and applications. We first formulate classic Kalman smoothing as a least squares problem, highlight special structure, and show that the classic filtering and smoothing algorithms are equivalent to a particular algorithm for solving this problem. Once this equivalence is established, we present extensions of Kalman smoothing to systems with nonlinear process and measurement models, systems with linear and nonlinear inequality constraints, systems with outliers in the measurements or sudden changes in the state, and systems where the sparsity of the state sequence must be accounted for. All extensions preserve the computational efficiency of the classic algorithms, and most of the extensions are illustrated with numerical examples, which are part of an open source Kalman smoothing Matlab/Octave package.Comment: 46 pages, 11 figure

Identification of shallow sea models

In this paper we consider a parameter estimation procedure for shallow sea models. The method is formulated as a minimization problem. An adjoint model is used to calculate the gradient of the criterion which is to be minimized. In order to obtain a robust estimation method, the uncertainty of the open boundary conditions can be taken into acoount by allowing random noise inputs to act on the open boundaries. This method avoids the possibility that boundary errors are interpreted by the estimation procedure as parameter fluctuations. We apply the parameter estimation method to identify a shallow sea model of the entire European continental shelf. First, a space-varying bottom friction coefficient is estimated simultaneously with the depth. The second application is the estimation of the parameterization of the wind stress coefficient as a function of the wind velocity. Finally, an uncertain open boundary condition is included. It is shown that in this case the parameter estimation procedure does become more robust and produces more realistic estimates. Furthermore, an estimate of the open boundary conditions is also obtained