Methods for Bayesian power spectrum inference with galaxy surveys

We derive and implement a full Bayesian large scale structure inference method aiming at precision recovery of the cosmological power spectrum from galaxy redshift surveys. Our approach improves over previous Bayesian methods by performing a joint inference of the three dimensional density field, the cosmological power spectrum, luminosity dependent galaxy biases and corresponding normalizations. We account for all joint and correlated uncertainties between all inferred quantities. Classes of galaxies with different biases are treated as separate sub samples. The method therefore also allows the combined analysis of more than one galaxy survey. In particular, it solves the problem of inferring the power spectrum from galaxy surveys with non-trivial survey geometries by exploring the joint posterior distribution with efficient implementations of multiple block Markov chain and Hybrid Monte Carlo methods. Our Markov sampler achieves high statistical efficiency in low signal to noise regimes by using a deterministic reversible jump algorithm. We test our method on an artificial mock galaxy survey, emulating characteristic features of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey data release 7, such as its survey geometry and luminosity dependent biases. These tests demonstrate the numerical feasibility of our large scale Bayesian inference frame work when the parameter space has millions of dimensions. The method reveals and correctly treats the anti-correlation between bias amplitudes and power spectrum, which are not taken into account in current approaches to power spectrum estimation, a 20 percent effect across large ranges in k-space. In addition, the method results in constrained realizations of density fields obtained without assuming the power spectrum or bias parameters in advance

Estimating Discrete Markov Models From Various Incomplete Data Schemes

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a case, the estimation of transition probabilities is straightforwardly made by counting one-step moves from a given state to another. In many real-life problems, however, the inference is much more difficult as state sequences are not fully observed, namely the state of each individual is known only for some given values of the time variable. A review of the problem is given, focusing on Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms to perform Bayesian inference and evaluate posterior distributions of the transition probabilities in this missing-data framework. Leaning on the dependence between the rows of the transition matrix, an adaptive MCMC mechanism accelerating the classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is then proposed and empirically studied.Comment: 26 pages - preprint accepted in 20th February 2012 for publication in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis (please cite the journal's paper

Free Energy Methods for Bayesian Inference: Efficient Exploration of Univariate Gaussian Mixture Posteriors

Because of their multimodality, mixture posterior distributions are difficult to sample with standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We propose a strategy to enhance the sampling of MCMC in this context, using a biasing procedure which originates from computational Statistical Physics. The principle is first to choose a "reaction coordinate", that is, a "direction" in which the target distribution is multimodal. In a second step, the marginal log-density of the reaction coordinate with respect to the posterior distribution is estimated; minus this quantity is called "free energy" in the computational Statistical Physics literature. To this end, we use adaptive biasing Markov chain algorithms which adapt their targeted invariant distribution on the fly, in order to overcome sampling barriers along the chosen reaction coordinate. Finally, we perform an importance sampling step in order to remove the bias and recover the true posterior. The efficiency factor of the importance sampling step can easily be estimated \emph{a priori} once the bias is known, and appears to be rather large for the test cases we considered. A crucial point is the choice of the reaction coordinate. One standard choice (used for example in the classical Wang-Landau algorithm) is minus the log-posterior density. We discuss other choices. We show in particular that the hyper-parameter that determines the order of magnitude of the variance of each component is both a convenient and an efficient reaction coordinate. We also show how to adapt the method to compute the evidence (marginal likelihood) of a mixture model. We illustrate our approach by analyzing two real data sets