Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China

The rapid development of the shipping industry requires the use of large vessels carrying high-volume cargoes. Accidents incurred by these vessels can lead to a heavy loss of life and damage to the environment and property. As a leading country in international trade, China has developed its waterway transport systems, including inland waterways and coastal shipping, in the past decades. A few catastrophic shipping accidents have occurred during this period. This paper aims to develop a new risk analysis approach based on Bayesian networks (BNs) to enable the analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation. Although the risk data are derived from accidents that occurred in China's waters, the risk factors influencing accident severity and the risk modelling methodology are generic and capable of generating useful insights on waterway risk analysis in a broad sense. To develop the BN-based risk model, waterway accident data are first collected from all accident investigation reports by China's Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) from 1979 to 2015. Based on the derived quantitative data, we identify the factors related to the severity of waterway accidents and use them as nodes of the risk model. Second, based on a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, an augmented naïve BN (ABN) model is selected through a comparative study with a naïve BN (NBN) model to analyse the key risk factors influencing waterway accident severity. The results show that the key factors influencing waterway safety include the type and location of the accident and the type and age of the ship. Moreover, a novel scenario analysis is conducted to predict accident severity in various situations by combining different states (e.g., high risk) of the key factors to generate useful insights for accident prevention. More specifically, the findings can aid transport authorities, ship owners and other stakeholders in improving waterborne transportation safety under uncertainty

Methodology to assess safety effects of future Intelligent Transport Systems on railway level crossings

There is consistent evidence showing that driver behaviour contributes to crashes and near miss incidents at railway level crossings (RLXs). The development of emerging Vehicle-to-Vehicle and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure technologies is a highly promising approach to improve RLX safety. To date, research has not evaluated comprehensively the potential effects of such technologies on driving behaviour at RLXs. This paper presents an on-going research programme assessing the impacts of such new technologies on human factors and drivers’ situational awareness at RLX. Additionally, requirements for the design of such promising technologies and ways to display safety information to drivers were systematically reviewed. Finally, a methodology which comprehensively assesses the effects of in-vehicle and road-based interventions warning the driver of incoming trains at RLXs is discussed, with a focus on both benefits and potential negative behavioural adaptations. The methodology is designed for implementation in a driving simulator and covers compliance, control of the vehicle, distraction, mental workload and drivers’ acceptance. This study has the potential to provide a broad understanding of the effects of deploying new in-vehicle and road-based technologies at RLXs and hence inform policy makers on safety improvements planning for RLX

Towards Identifying and closing Gaps in Assurance of autonomous Road vehicleS - a collection of Technical Notes Part 1

This report provides an introduction and overview of the Technical Topic Notes (TTNs) produced in the Towards Identifying and closing Gaps in Assurance of autonomous Road vehicleS (Tigars) project. These notes aim to support the development and evaluation of autonomous vehicles. Part 1 addresses: Assurance-overview and issues, Resilience and Safety Requirements, Open Systems Perspective and Formal Verification and Static Analysis of ML Systems. Part 2: Simulation and Dynamic Testing, Defence in Depth and Diversity, Security-Informed Safety Analysis, Standards and Guidelines

Decision support model for the selection of asphalt wearing courses in highly trafficked roads

The suitable choice of the materials forming the wearing course of highly trafficked roads is a delicate task because of their direct interaction with vehicles. Furthermore, modern roads must be planned according to sustainable development goals, which is complex because some of these might be in conflict. Under this premise, this paper develops a multi-criteria decision support model based on the analytic hierarchy process and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution to facilitate the selection of wearing courses in European countries. Variables were modelled using either fuzzy logic or Monte Carlo methods, depending on their nature. The views of a panel of experts on the problem were collected and processed using the generalized reduced gradient algorithm and a distance-based aggregation approach. The results showed a clear preponderance by stone mastic asphalt over the remaining alternatives in different scenarios evaluated through sensitivity analysis. The research leading to these results was framed in the European FP7 Project DURABROADS (No. 605404).The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under Grant Agreement No. 605404

PADAMOT : project overview report

Background and relevance to radioactive waste management International consensus confirms that placing radioactive wastes and spent nuclear fuel deep underground in a geological repository is the generally preferred option for their long-term management and disposal. This strategy provides a number of advantages compared to leaving it on or near the Earth’s surface. These advantages come about because, for a well chosen site, the geosphere can provide: • a physical barrier that can negate or buffer against the effects of surface dominated natural disruptive processes such as deep weathering, glaciation, river and marine erosion or flooding, asteroid/comet impact and earthquake shaking etc. • long and slow groundwater return pathways from the facility to the biosphere along which retardation, dilution and dispersion processes may operate to reduce radionuclide concentration in the groundwater. • a stable, and benign geochemical environment to maximise the longevity of the engineered barriers such as the waste containers and backfill in the facility. • a natural radiation shield around the wastes. • a mechanically stable environment in which the facility can be constructed and will afterwards be protected. • an environment which reduces the likelihood of the repository being disturbed by inadvertent human intrusion such as land use changes, construction projects, drilling, quarrying and mining etc. • protection against the effects of deliberate human activities such as vandalism, terrorism and war etc. However, safety considerations for storing and disposing of long-lived radioactive wastes must take into account various scenarios that might affect the ability of the geosphere to provide the functionality listed above. Therefore, in order to provide confidence in the ability of a repository to perform within the deep geological setting at a particular site, a demonstration of geosphere “stability” needs to be made. Stability is defined here to be the capacity of a geological and hydrogeological system to minimise the impact of external influences on the repository environment, or at least to account for them in a manner that would allow their impacts to be evaluated and accounted for in any safety assessments. A repository should be sited where the deep geosphere is a stable host in which the engineered containment can continue to perform according to design and in which the surrounding hydrogeological, geomechanical and geochemical environment will continue to operate as a natural barrier to radionuclide movement towards the biosphere. However, over the long periods of time during which long-lived radioactive wastes will pose a hazard, environmental change at the surface has the potential to disrupt the stability of the geosphere and therefore the causes of environmental change and their potential consequences need to be evaluated. As noted above, environmental change can include processes such as deep weathering, glaciation, river and marine erosion. It can also lead to changes in groundwater boundary conditions through alternating recharge/discharge relationships. One of the key drivers for environmental change is climate variability. The question then arises, how can geosphere stability be assessed with respect to changes in climate? Key issues raised in connection with this are: • What evidence is there that 'going underground' eliminates the extreme conditions that storage on the surface would be subjected to in the long term? • How can the additional stability and safety of the deep geosphere be demonstrated with evidence from the natural system? As a corollary to this, the capacity of repository sites deep underground in stable rock masses to mitigate potential impacts of future climate change on groundwater conditions therefore needs to be tested and demonstrated. To date, generic scenarios for groundwater evolution relating to climate change are currently weakly constrained by data and process understanding. Hence, the possibility of site-specific changes of groundwater conditions in the future can only be assessed and demonstrated by studying groundwater evolution in the past. Stability of groundwater conditions in the past is an indication of future stability, though both the climatic and geological contexts must be taken into account in making such an assertion

Prioritization methodology for roadside and guardrail improvement: Quantitative calculation of safety level and optimization of resources allocation

The attention to road safety-related issues has grown fast in recent decades. The experience gained with these themes reveals the importance of considering these aspects in the resource allocation process for roadside and guardrail improvement, which is a complex process often involves conflicting objectives. This work consists on defining an innovative methodology, with the objective of calculating and analysing a numerical risk factor of a road. The method considers geometry, accident rate, traffic of the examined road and four categories of elements/defects where the resources can be allocated to improve the road safety (safety barriers, discrete obstacles, continuous obstacles, and water drainage). The analysis allows the assessment of the hazard index, which could be used in decision-making processes. A case study is presented to analyse roadsides of a 995 km long road network, using the cost-benefit analysis, and to prioritize possible rehabilitation work. The results highlighted that it is suitable to intervene on roads belonging to higher classes of risk, where it is possible to maximize the benefit in terms of safety as consequence of rehabilitation works (i.e., new barrier installation, removal and new barrier installation, and new terminal installation). The proposed method is quantitative; therefore, it avoids providing weak and far from reliable results; moreover, it guarantees a broad vision for the problem, giving a useful tool for road management body

Work domain analysis and intelligent transport systems: Implications for vehicle design

This article presents a Work Domain Analysis (WDA) of the road transport system in Victoria, Australia. A series of driver information requirements and tasks that could potentially be supported through the use of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) are then extracted from the WDA. The potential use of ITS technologies to circumvent these information gaps and provide additional support to drivers is discussed. It is concluded that driver information requirements are currently not entirely satisfied by contemporary vehicle design and also that there are a number of driving tasks that could be further supported through the provision of supplementary systems within vehicles

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio

Airport veer-off risk assessment: An italian case study

The objective of this paper is to assess the veer-off risk of an Italian airport that is characterized for having near 12,000 annual movements. The name of this airport is not disclosed for security purposes. The methodology used followed the principles of probabilistic risk analysis in order to characterize the events and assess the corresponding damages. The study used statistical data about accident reports and local conditions that were collected following the standards of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The methodology used in this work complies with the guidelines for the adjustment of lateral runway strips, edited by the Italian Civil Aviation Authority (ENAC). Besides, data available in worldwide databases of airplane accidents were also gathered and included as part of the analysis. The method used to assess the veer-off risk of the airport is consistent with probability and damage quantification methods published in the literature. The main variables considered in the analysis were traffic information, wind conditions, the existence of landsidebuildings adjacent to the runway, and the geotechnical conditions of the subgrade underneath the strip zones. For the assessment of the veer-off risk, the authors used primary data provided by the airport management body within the period 2013-2015 and secondary data available in the literature. The risk of veer-off was calculated in more than 1,500 points around the runway. Besides, the authors proposed maximum allowable risks in different locations, and these values were compared to the actual risk levels previously computed. The results of this comparison suggested that improvements in the soil capacity and/or in the airport management activities might contribute to achieve the proposed allowable risk. The results from this assessment showed that the two critical variables determining the risk of veer-off accidents in the airport under evaluation were wind conditions and the bearing capacity of the soil underneath the strip areas. Also, it was found that the highest veer-off risk level obtained within the Cleared and Graded Area (CGA, part of the runway strip cleared of all obstacles and graded) was 2 10-7, while the lowest level was 3 10-8, which are considered typical risk ranges in airport operations. In general, the results demonstrate that the adopted methodology is a useful tool to evaluate the veer-off risk of a specific airport. Besides, the method allows comparing the actual levels of risk with proposed target levels of safety.Consequently, the quantification of the veer-off risk levels offers the airport management body the possibility of implementing appropriate measurements in those cases where minimum safety requirements are not achieved