Statistical identification of geometric parameters for high speed train catenary

Pantograph/catenary interaction is known to be strongly dependent on the static geometry of the catenary, this research thus seeks to build a statistical model of this geometry. Sensitivity analyses provide a selection of relevant parameters affecting the geometry. After correction for the dynamic nature of the measurement, provide a database of measurements. One then seeks to solve the statistical inverse problem using the maximum entropy principle and the maximum likelihood method. Two methods of multivariate density estimations are presented, the Gaussian kernel density estimation method and the Gaussian parametric method. The results provide statistical information on the significant parameters and show that the messenger wire tension of the catenary hides sources of variability that are not yet taken into account in the model

Bayesian model selection in logistic regression for the detection of adverse drug reactions

Motivation: Spontaneous adverse event reports have a high potential for detecting adverse drug reactions. However, due to their dimension, exploring such databases requires statistical methods. In this context, disproportionality measures are used. However, by projecting the data onto contingency tables, these methods become sensitive to the problem of co-prescriptions and masking effects. Recently, logistic regressions have been used with a Lasso type penalty to perform the detection of associations between drugs and adverse events. However, the choice of the penalty value is open to criticism while it strongly influences the results. Results: In this paper, we propose to use a logistic regression whose sparsity is viewed as a model selection challenge. Since the model space is huge, a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm carries out the model selection by maximizing the BIC criterion. Thus, we avoid the calibration of penalty or threshold. During our application on the French pharmacovigilance database, the proposed method is compared to well established approaches on a reference data set, and obtains better rates of positive and negative controls. However, many signals are not detected by the proposed method. So, we conclude that this method should be used in parallel to existing measures in pharmacovigilance.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Biometrical Journa

Missing ordinal covariates with informative selection

This paper considers the problem of parameter estimation in a model for a continuous response variable y when an important ordinal explanatory variable x is missing for a large proportion of the sample. Non-missingness of x, or sample selection, is correlated with the response variable and/or with the unobserved values the ordinal explanatory variable takes when missing. We suggest solving the endogenous selection, or 'not missing at random' (NMAR), problem by modelling the informative selection mechanism, the ordinal explanatory variable, and the response variable together. The use of the method is illustrated by re-examining the problem of the ethnic gap in school achievement at age 16 in England using linked data from the National Pupil database (NPD), the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE), and the Census 2001.Missing covariate, sample selection, latent class models, ordinal variables, NMAR

Das Lehrstück Kemit

This thesis project has been carried out at Linköpings universitet at the Department of Mechanical Engineering. The emphasis of the project lies in the exploration of automatic selection of components for a propulsion kit. Specifically for this project, propulsion based on electric power and meeting the requirements for use in a Micro Aerial Vehicle (MAV). The key features include a systematic selection method based on user criterias and a model for evaluating propeller performance. These are implemented in a program written as a part of the project. The conclusion is that it is possible to make a program capable of a component selection and that the programs usability is mainly reliant on three factors: model for propeller evaluation, method of selection and the quality of the component database

A knowledge-based decision support system for roofing materials selection and cost estimating: a conceptual framework and data modelling

A plethora of materials is available to the modern day house designer but selecting the appropriate material is a complex task. It requires synthesising a multitude of performance criteria such as initial cost, maintenance cost, thermal performance and sustainability among others. This research aims to develop a Knowledge-based Decision support System for Material Selection (KDSMS) that facilitates the selection of optimal material for different sub elements of a roof design. The proposed system also has a facility for estimating roof cost based on the identified criteria. This paper presents the data modelling conceptual framework for the proposed system. The roof sub elements are modelled on the Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) Standard Form of Cost Analysis. This model consists of a knowledge base and a database to store different types of roofing materials with their corresponding performance characteristics and rankings. The system s knowledge is elicited from an extensive review of literature and the use of a domain expert forum. The proposed system employs the multi criteria decision method of TOPSIS (Technique of ranking Preferences by Similarity to the Ideal Solution), to resolve the materials selection and optimisation problem. The KDSMS is currently being developed for the housing sector of Northern Ireland

A MOM-based ensemble method for robustness, subsampling and hyperparameter tuning

Hyperparameters tuning and model selection are important steps in machine learning. Unfortunately, classical hyperparameter calibration and model selection procedures are sensitive to outliers and heavy-tailed data. In this work, we construct a selection procedure which can be seen as a robust alternative to cross-validation and is based on a median-of-means principle. Using this procedure, we also build an ensemble method which, trained with algorithms and corrupted heavy-tailed data, selects an algorithm, trains it with a large uncorrupted subsample and automatically tune its hyperparameters. The construction relies on a divide-and-conquer methodology, making this method easily scalable for autoML given a corrupted database. This method is tested with the LASSO which is known to be highly sensitive to outliers.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figure

Uncertainty explicit assessment of off-the-shelf software: Selection of an optimal diverse pair

Assessment of software COTS components is an essential part of component-based software development. Sub-optimal selection of components may lead to solutions with low quality. The assessment is based on incomplete knowledge about the COTS components themselves and other aspects, which may affect the choice such as the vendor's credentials, etc. We argue in favor of assessment methods in which uncertainty is explicitly represented (`uncertainty explicit' methods) using probability distributions. We have adapted a model (developed elsewhere by Littlewood, B. et al. (2000)) for assessment of a pair of COTS components to take account of the fault (bug) logs that might be available for the COTS components being assessed. We also provide empirical data from a study we have conducted with off-the-shelf database servers, which illustrate the use of the method