Strategic and Tactical Crude Oil Supply Chain: Mathematical Programming Models

Crude oil industry very fast became a strategic industry. Then, optimization of the Crude Oil Supply Chain (COSC) models has created new challenges. This fact motivated me to study the COSC mathematical programming models. We start with a systematic literature review to identify promising avenues. Afterwards, we elaborate three concert models to fill identified gaps in the COSC context, which are (i) joint venture formation, (ii) integrated upstream, and (iii) environmentally conscious design

Global optimisation of large-scale quadratic programs: application to short-term planning of industrial refinery-petrochemical complexes

This thesis is driven by an industrial problem arising in the short-term planning of an integrated refinery-petrochemical complex (IRPC) in Colombia. The IRPC of interest is composed of 60 industrial plants and a tank farm for crude mixing and fuel blending consisting of 30 additional units. It considers both domestic and imported crude oil supply, as well as refined product imports such as low sulphur diesel and alkylate. This gives rise to a large-scale mixed-integer quadratically constrained quadratic program (MIQCQP) comprising about 7,000 equality constraints with over 35,000 bilinear terms and 280 binary variables describing operating modes for the process units. Four realistic planning scenarios are recreated to study the performance of the algorithms developed through the thesis and compare them to commercial solvers. Local solvers such as SBB and DICOPT cannot reliably solve such large-scale MIQCQPs. Usually, it is challenging to even reach a feasible solution with these solvers, and a heuristic procedure is required to initialize the search. On the other hand, global solvers such as ANTIGONE and BARON determine a feasible solution for all the scenarios analysed, but they are unable to close the relaxation gap to less than 40% on average after 10h of CPU runtime. Overall, this industrial-size problem is thus intractable to global optimality in a monolithic way. The first main contribution of the thesis is a deterministic global optimisation algorithm based on cluster decomposition (CL) that divides the network into groups of process units according to their functionality. The algorithm runs through the sequences of clusters and proceeds by alternating between: (i) the (global) solution of a mixed-integer linear program (MILP), obtained by relaxing the bilinear terms based on their piecewise McCormick envelopes and a dynamic partition of their variable ranges, in order to determine an upper bound on the maximal profit; and (ii) the local solution of a quadratically-constrained quadratic program (QCQP), after fixing the binary variables and initializing the continuous variables to the relaxed MILP solution point, in order to determine a feasible solution (lower bound on the maximal profit). Applied to the base case scenario, the CL approach reaches a best solution of 2.964 MMUSD/day and a relaxation gap of 7.5%, a remarkable result for such challenging MIQCQP problem. The CL approach also vastly outperforms both ANTIGONE (2.634 MMUSD/day, 32% optimality gap) and BARON (2.687 MMUSD/day, 40% optimality gap). The second main contribution is a spatial Lagrangean decomposition, which entails decomposing the IRPC short-term planning problem into a collection of smaller subproblems that can be solved independently to determine an upper bound on the maximal profit. One advantage of this strategy is that each sub-problem can be solved to global optimality, potentially providing good initial points for the monolithic problem itself. It furthermore creates a virtual market for trading crude blends and intermediate refined–petrochemical streams and seeks an optimal trade-off in such a market, with the Lagrange multipliers acting as transfer prices. A decomposition over two to four is considered, which matches the crude management, refinery, petrochemical operations, and fuel blending sections of the IRPC. An optimality gap below 4% is achieved in all four scenarios considered, which is a significant improvement over the cluster decomposition algorithm.Open Acces

Assessment of Lagrangean decomposition for short-term planning of integrated refinery-petrochemical operations

We present an integrated methodology for optimal short-term planning of integrated refinery-petrochemical complexes (IRPCs) and demonstrate it on a full-scale industrial case study under four realistic planning scenarios. The large-scale mixed-integer quadratically constrained optimization models are amenable to a spatial Lagrangean decomposition through dividing the IRPC into multiple subsections, which comprise crude management, refinery, fuel blending, and petrochemical production. The decomposition algorithm creates virtual markets for trading crude blends and intermediate petrochemical streams within the IRPC and seeks an optimal tradeoff in such markets, with the Lagrange multipliers acting as transfer prices. The best results are obtained for decompositions with two or three subsections, achieving optimality gaps below 4% in all four planning scenarios. The Lagrangean decomposition provides tighter primal and dual bounds than the global solvers BARON and ANTIGONE, and it also improves the dual bounds computed using piecewise linear relaxation strategies

On modelling planning under uncertainty in manufacturing

We present a modelling framework for two-stage and multi-stage mixed 0-1 problems under uncertainty for strategic Supply Chain Management, tactical production planning and operations assignment and scheduling. A scenario tree based scheme is used to represent the uncertainty. We present the Deterministic Equivalent Model of the stochastic mixed 0-1 programs with complete recourse that we study. The constraints are modelled by compact and splitting variable representations via scenarios

The Impact of Cost Allocation on Key Decisions of Supply Chain Participants

Abstract - Modern business processes are impossible without a logistics system. Logistics costs constitute the lion’s share in the total product cost. The purpose of our research is to study the dependence of decision-making on the level of logistics costs. In order to achieve the goal set, questionnaire, mathematical modeling and analysis methods were used in the study. The main problems of cost management in supply chains were highlighted. In the course of our research, we concluded that a universal solution to the problem can be developed for a limited segment of enterprises, since there is no identical solution to increasing cost efficiency for different types of enterprises. According to the results of the questionnaire, managers’ decisions on increasing efficiency are dependent on their subjective desires rather than dictated by the economic efficiency. Sixty-seven per cent of the respondents are ready to reject a profitable project due to risks. The questionnaire also showed that only 4% of the managers are ready to quit an already implemented project if it is ineffective. This begs the question: do all projects prove to be really effective after their implementation? A two-factor mathematical model with a dummy variable showed the dependence of increased logistics costs on the period in which they were implemented. The mathematical model obtained during the study will be useful for predicting and budgeting the level of logistics costs. It can also encourage independent enterprises to build advanced mathematical models

Food industry supply chain planning with product quality indicators

Quantitative supply chain modelling has contributed substantially to a number of fields, such as the automotive industry, logistics and computer hardware. The inherent methods and optimisation techniques could also be explored in relation to the food industry in order to offer potential benefits. One of the major issues of the food industry is to overcome supply seasonality and on-shelf demand. On the shelf demand is the consumer’s in store demand which could also be seasonal. Objective of this work is to add flexibility to seasonal products (i.e. soup) in order to meet the on-shelf demand. In order to achieve this, a preparation process is introduced and integrated into the manufacturing system. This process increases the shelf-life of raw materials before starting the production process. This process, however, affects the quality of fresh raw materials and requires energy. Therefore, a supply chain model is developed, which is based on the link between the quality of the raw material and the processing conditions, which have an effect on the process’ energy consumption and on the overall product quality. It is challenging to quantify the quality by looking at the processing conditions (degrees of freedom) and by linking it with energy in order to control and optimise the quality and energy consumption for each product. The degrees of freedom are defined differently for each process and state. Therefore, the developed model could be applied to all states and processes in order to generate an optimum solution. Moreover, based on the developed model, we have determined key factors in the whole chain, which are most likely to affect the product quality and consequently overall demand. There are two main quality indicator classes to be optimised, which are both considered in the model: static and time dependent indicators. Also, this work considers three different preparation processes – the air-dry, freeze-dry and freezing process – in order to increase the shelf-life of fresh raw materials and to add flexibility to them. A model based on the interrelationship between the quality and the processing conditions has been developed. This new methodology simplifies and enables the model to find the optimum processing conditions in order to obtain optimum quality across all quality indicators, whilst ensuring minimum energy consumption. This model is later integrated into the supply chain system, where it generates optimum solutions, which are then fed into the supply chain model. The supply chain model optimises the quality in terms of customer satisfaction, energy consumption and wastage of the system linked to environmental issues, and cost, so that the final products are more economical. In this system, both the manufacturing and inventory systems are optimised. This model is later implemented with a real world industrial case study (provided by the industrial collaborator). Two case studies are considered (soya milk and soup) and interestingly enough only one of them (soup) corresponds with this model. The advantage of this model is that it compares the two systems and then establishes which system generates an optimum end product.Open Acces