Improved Decision-Making through a DEMATEL and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps-Based Framework

The decision-making process is highly demanding. There has been an increasing tendency to incorporate human thinking, individual experience about a problem, and pure mathematical approaches. Here, a novel integrated approach is investigated and proposed to develop an advanced hybrid decision-support system based on the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs). Indeed, knowledge acquisition and elicitation may present distortions and difficulties finding a consensus and an interpretation. Thus, the proposed combined approach aims to examine in depth the potential to improve FCMs' outcomes by integrating FCM with the DEMATEL approach. The combined methodology achieves at avoiding some of the drawbacks, such as the lack of a standardized FCM theoretical model. Thus, it provides advanced comparative analysis and results in better interpretation of the decision-making process. It is highlighted that the traditional FCM approach does not allow distinguishing the whole number of defined scenarios, in contrast to the hybrid one presented here, which increases the ability of users to make correct decisions. Combining the two approaches provides new capabilities to FCMs in grouping experts' knowledge, while the DEMATEL approach contributes to refining the strength of concepts' connections

Decision Making of Environmental Engineers on Project Selection

Some environmental engineers do not understand how to perceive profitable opportunities in redeveloping the large number of contaminated brownfield sites in New Jersey. The purpose of this qualitative exploratory case study was to find effective decision-making strategies that help environmental engineers acquire profitable environmental redevelopment projects. The target population consisted of 4 environmental engineers in an environmental organization in Camden County, New Jersey who possessed proven decision-making strategies that helped them acquire profitable environmental redevelopment projects in the past 5 years. The conceptual framework for this study was the multiple criteria decision method (MCDM). Semistructured interviews were conducted with the engineers, and company documents were additional sources of data gathered. Triangulation and member checking were used to ensure the trustworthiness of interpretations. Five themes emerged from the analyses relating to strategies for an MCDM assessment in project management, a go/no-go assessment in project selections, education and training, ethics as an organizational value, and project management. These findings may lead to social change in Camden County, New Jersey community organizations, such as schools, daycare centers, and local businesses, which may benefit from the knowledge and safety recommendations of remediation decision making. Furthermore, these findings may provide opportunities for environment organizations to teach and train stakeholders on environmental processes while providing profitable opportunities to shareholders through sustainable practices

A participatory multicriteria approach to evaluate strategic projects for local sustainable development

Tesis por compendio[EN] The dilemma of development and sustainability in the local context generates multiple interests and concerns. This dissertation arises from the challenge proposed by both concepts in the framework of decision making for urban planning. Its development has been guided by two main motivations. The first and most important is to discuss sustainable development in a context where little had been said, responding to how to improve the practices used for the prioritisation of actions during the planning stages of local development projects, taking as a case study the city of Cartagena de Indias (Colombia). The second, on the other hand, responds to the interest of contributing to the field of multicriteria decision making techniques. The objective is to design a methodology to help those responsible for territorial planning to evaluate development strategies and projects. In particular, it focuses on the participation of different stakeholders and on the approach to sustainable local development. Therefore, the general research question is: how can a participatory multicriteria methodology help to evaluate local development projects with a sustainable approach? To answer this research question the present dissertation, of an exploratory and descriptive nature, has been designed, and developed from the application of three cases of iterative and complementary studies. The objective has been to propose a framework that systematically allows the taking of decisions and the integration of diverse positions, without trying to find a unique solution with the best decision model. The proposed methodology has been developed from the combination of two techniques known from the field of Operations Research, Analytic Network Process (ANP) and Social Network Analysis (SNA). SNA is used to find out how the network of actors related to a problem is structured, to study and evaluate the relationships between the actors that make it up, to determine their degree of cohesion, the actors in the most relevant positions and the existing structural gaps. All of this permits the selection of participants in the decision making process carried out through ANP. ANP is a wellknown multicriteria decision method, which provides a framework for addressing decision making or problem assessment. It defines a prioritisation model as a network with complex, interdependent and feedback relationships between elements. The elements represent characteristics, requirements, conditions or criteria related to a problem, as well as possible alternative solutions. ANP is used to discover the opinions of the participants, to obtain their decision profiles and to reach a consensus on the prioritisation of projects and strategies. Additionally, this methodological proposal, based on the SNA-ANP combination, can be completed with other techniques, for example, geographic information systems to add some components that improve the decision. The results suggest that this SNA-ANP methodology is a novel and useful combination for evaluating local development plans with a multicriteria, sustainable and participatory approach. The results establish a basis for proposing new applications and generating new discussions with the local administration and other actors. With the inclusion of the local and sustainable development approach in the decision framework, throughout this dissertation, the value of different heritages is highlighted, as is the promotion of a more adapted strategic planning and the recognition and inclusion of multiple groups of actors. In addition, the use of practical and replicable methodologies that account for the results is promoted, to be applied at different scales, in order to improve planning and prioritisation of actions. The proposal has considered the dimensions of sustainability in decision models, the active participation of decision-makers and a better selection of participants. In short, it has facilitated the construction of a more participatory decision making process. Finally, it also allows us to explore future applications and to continue the discussion related to the problem of decision making during the planning and evaluation stages of strategic projects, whether for local sustainable development or for other types of objectives.[ES] El dilema del desarrollo y la sostenibilidad en el contexto local genera múltiples intereses e inquietudes. Esta disertación surge entorno al desafío propuesto por ambos conceptos en el marco de la toma de decisiones para la planeación urbana. Su desarrollo se ha orientado a partir de dos motivaciones principales. La primera y más importante es discutir sobre desarrollo sostenible en un contexto en el que se había hablado poco, respondiendo a cómo mejorar las prácticas utilizadas para la priorización de acciones durante las etapas de planeación de proyectos de desarrollo local, tomando como objeto de estudio la ciudad de Cartagena de Indias (Colombia). La segunda, por su parte, responde al interés por contribuir en el campo de las técnicas de toma de decisiones multicriterio. El objetivo es diseñar una metodología para ayudar a los responsables de la planificación territorial a evaluar estrategias y proyectos de desarrollo. En particular, se centra en la participación de diferentes partes interesadas y en el enfoque al desarrollo local sostenible. Por lo tanto, la pregunta general de investigación es: ¿Cómo puede una metodología multicriterio participativa ayudar a evaluar proyectos de desarrollo local con un enfoque sostenible? Para responder a esta pregunta de investigación se ha diseñado la presente disertación, de naturaleza exploratoria y descriptiva, desarrollada a partir de la aplicación de tres casos de estudios iterativos y complementarios. El objetivo ha sido proponer un marco que de forma sistemática permita tomar decisiones e integrar diversas posiciones, sin pretender hallar una solución única con el mejor modelo de decisión. La metodología propuesta se ha construido a partir de la combinación de dos técnicas conocidas del campo de la Investigación de Operaciones, el Proceso Analítico en Red (ANP) y el Análisis de Redes Sociales (SNA). El SNA se utiliza para conocer cómo se estructura la red de actores relacionados con un problema, estudiar y evaluar las relaciones entre los actores que la componen, determinar su grado de cohesión, los actores en posiciones más relevantes y los vacíos estructurales existentes. Todo ello permite seleccionar a los participantes en el proceso de toma de decisiones realizado a través del ANP. El ANP es un conocido método de decisión multicriterio, que proporciona un marco para abordar la toma de decisiones o la evaluación de problemas. Define un modelo de priorización como una red con relaciones complejas, interdependientes y retroalimentadas entre elementos. Los elementos representan características, requerimientos, condiciones o criterios relacionados con un problema, así como las posibles alternativas de solución. El ANP se utiliza para conocer las opiniones de los participantes, obtener sus perfiles de decisión y alcanzar un consenso sobre la priorización de proyectos y estrategias. Adicionalmente, esta propuesta metodológica, basada en la combinación SNA-ANP, se puede completar con otras técnicas, por ejemplo, los sistemas de información geográfica para agregar algunos componentes que mejoren la decisión. Los resultados sugieren que esta metodología SNA-ANP, es una combinación novedosa y útil para evaluar planes de desarrollo local con un enfoque multicriterio, sostenible y participativo. Los resultados establecen una base para proponer nuevas aplicaciones y generar nuevas discusiones con la administración local y otros actores. Con la inclusión del enfoque del desarrollo local y sostenible en el marco de las decisiones, a lo largo de esta disertación, se resalta el valor de distintos patrimonios, la promoción de una planeación estratégica más adaptada y el reconocimiento e inclusión de múltiples grupos de actores. Además, se promueve el uso de metodologías prácticas y replicables que den cuenta de los resultados, para ser aplicadas a diferentes escalas, con el fin de mejorar la planeación y la priorización de acciones. La propuesta ha considerado las dimensiones de la sostenibilidad en los modelos de decisión, la participación activa de los decisores y una mejor selección de los participantes. En síntesis, ha facilitado la construcción de un proceso de decisión más participativo. Finalmente, también permite explorar futuras aplicaciones y continuar la discusión relacionada con el problema de la toma de decisiones durante las etapas de planeación y evaluación de proyectos estratégicos sean para el desarrollo local sostenible o para otro tipo de objetivos.[CA] El dilema del desenvolupament i la sostenibilitat en el context local genera múltiples interessos i inquietuds. Aquesta dissertació sorgeix entorn al desafiament proposat per ambdós conceptes en el marc de la presa de decisions per a la planificació urbana. El seu desenvolupament s'ha orientat a partir de dues motivacions principals. La primera i més important és discutir sobre desenvolupament sostenible en un context en què s'havia parlat poc, responent a com millorar les pràctiques utilitzades per a la priorització d'accions durant les etapes de planificació de projectes de desenvolupament local, prenent com a objecte d'estudi la ciutat de Cartagena d'Índies (Colòmbia). La segona, per la seva banda, respon a l'interès per contribuir en el camp de les tècniques de presa de decisions multicriteri. L'objectiu és dissenyar una metodologia per ajudar els responsables de la planificació territorial a avaluar estratègies i projectes de desenvolupament. En particular, es centra en la participació de diferents parts interessades i en l'enfocament al desenvolupament local sostenible. Per tant, la pregunta general d'investigació és: Com pot una metodologia multicriteri participativa ajudar a avaluar projectes de desenvolupament local amb un enfocament sostenible? Per respondre a aquesta pregunta de recerca s'ha dissenyat la present dissertació, de naturalesa exploratòria i descriptiva, desenvolupada a partir de l'aplicació de tres casos d'estudi iteratius i complementaris. L'objectiu ha estat proposar un marc que de forma sistemàtica permeti prendre decisions i integrar diverses posicions, sense pretendre trobar una solució única amb el millor model de decisió. La metodologia proposada s'ha construït a partir de la combinació de dues tècniques conegudes del camp de la Investigació d'Operacions, el Procés Analític en Xarxa (ANP) i l'anàlisi de xarxes socials (SNA). El SNA s'utilitza per conèixer com s'estructura la xarxa d'actors relacionats amb un problema, estudiar i avaluar les relacions entre els actors que la componen, determinar el seu grau de cohesió, els actors en posicions més rellevants i els buits estructurals existents. Tot això permet seleccionar els participants en el procés de presa de decisions realitzat a través de l'ANP. L'ANP és un conegut mètode de decisió multicriteri, que proporciona un marc per abordar la presa de decisions o l'avaluació de problemes. Defineix un model de priorització com una xarxa amb relacions complexes, interdependents i retroalimentades entre elements. Els elements representen característiques, requeriments, condicions o criteris relacionats amb un problema, així com les possibles alternatives de solució. El ANP s'utilitza per conèixer les opinions dels participants, obtenir els seus perfils de decisió i arribar a un consens sobre la priorització de projectes i estratègies. Addicionalment, aquesta proposta metodològica, basada en la combinació SNA-ANP, es pot completar amb altres tècniques, per exemple, els sistemes d'informació geogràfica per afegir alguns components que millorin la decisió. Els resultats suggereixen que aquesta metodologia SNA-ANP, és una combinació innovadora i útil per avaluar plans de desenvolupament local amb un enfocament multicriteri, sostenible i participatiu. Els resultats estableixen una base per proposar noves aplicacions i generar noves discussions amb l'administració local i altres actors. Amb la inclusió de l'enfocament del desenvolupament local i sostenible en el marc de les decisions, al llarg d'aquesta dissertació, es ressalta el valor de diferents patrimonis, la promoció d'una planificació estratègica més adaptada i el reconeixement i inclusió de múltiples grups d'actors . A més, es promou l'ús de metodologies pràctiques i replicables que donin compte dels resultats, per ser aplicades a diferents escales, per tal de millorar la planificació i la priorització d'accions. La proposta ha considerat les dimensions de la sostenibilitat en els models de decisió, la participació activa dels decisors i una millor selecció dels participants. En síntesi, ha facilitat la construcció d'un procés de decisió més participatiu. Finalment, també permet explorar futures aplicacions i continuar la discussió relacionada amb el problema de la presa de decisions durant les etapes de planificació i avaluació de projectes estratègics siguin per al desenvolupament local sostenible o per a un altre tipus d'objectius.Gonzalez Urango, HK. (2020). A participatory multicriteria approach to evaluate strategic projects for local sustainable development [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/149490TESISCompendi

Un enfoque de toma de decisiones multicriterio aplicado a la estrategia de transformación digital de las organizaciones por medio de la inteligencia artificial responsable en la nube de las organizaciones. Estudio de caso en el sector de salud

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Estudios Estadísticos, leída el 08-02-2023Organisations are committed to understanding both the needs of their customers and the capabilities and plans of their competitors and partners, through the processes of acquiring and evaluating market information in a systematic and anticipatory manner. On the other hand, most organisations in the last few years have defined that one of their main strategic objectives for the next few years is to become a truly data-driven organisation in the current Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) context (Moreno et al., 2019). They are willing to invest heavily in Data and AI Strategy and build enterprise data and AI platforms that will enable this Market-Oriented vision (Moreno et al., 2019). In this thesis, it is presented a Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) model (Saaty, 1988), an AI Digital Cloud Transformation Strategy and a cloud conceptual architecture to help AI leaders and organisations with their Responsible AI journey, capable of helping global organisations to move from the use of data from descriptive to prescriptive and leveraging existing cloud services to deliver true Market-Oriented in a much shorter time (compared with traditional approaches)...Las organizaciones se comprometen a comprender tanto las necesidades de sus clientes como las capacidades y planes de sus competidores y socios, a través de procesos de adquisición y evaluación de información de mercado de manera sistemática y anticipatoria. Por otro lado, la mayoría de las organizaciones en los últimos años han definido que uno de sus principales objetivos estratégicos para los próximos años es convertirse en una organización verdaderamente orientada a los datos (data-driven) en el contexto actual de Big Data e Inteligencia Artificial (IA) (Moreno et al. al., 2019). Están dispuestos a invertir fuertemente en datos y estrategia de inteligencia artificial y construir plataformas de datos empresariales e inteligencia artificial que permitan esta visión orientada al mercado (Moreno et al., 2019). En esta tesis, se presenta un modelo de toma de decisiones multicriterio (MCDM) (Saaty, 1988), una estrategia de transformación digital de IA de la nube y una arquitectura conceptual de nube para ayudar a los líderes y organizaciones de IA en su viaje de IA responsable, capaz de ayudar a las organizaciones globales a pasar del uso de datos descriptivos a prescriptivos y aprovechar los servicios en la nube existentes para ofrecer una verdadera orientación al mercado en un tiempo mucho más corto (en comparación con los enfoques tradicionales)...Fac. de Estudios EstadísticosTRUEunpu

Multi-criteria decision methods to support the maintenance management of complex systems

[ES] Esta tesis doctoral propone el uso de métodos de toma de decisiones multi-criterio (MCDM, por sus iniciales en inglés) como herramienta estratégica para apoyar la gestión del mantenimiento de sistemas complejos. El desarrollo de esta tesis doctoral se enmarca dentro de un acuerdo de cotutela entre la Università degli Studi di Palermo (UNIPA) y la Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), dentro de sus respectivos programas de doctorado en 'Ingeniería de Innovación Tecnológica' y 'Matemáticas'. Estos programas están estrechamente vinculados a través del tópico MCDM, ya que proporciona herramientas cruciales para gestionar el mantenimiento de sistemas complejos reales utilizando análisis matemáticos serios. El propósito de esta sinergia es tener en cuenta de forma sólida la incertidumbre al atribuir evaluaciones subjetivas, recopilar y sintetizar juicios atribuidos por varios responsables de la toma de decisiones, y tratar con conjuntos grandes de esos elementos. El tema principal del presente trabajo de doctorado es el gestionamiento de las actividades de mantenimiento para aumentar los niveles de innovación tecnológica y el rendimiento de los sistemas complejos. Cualquier sistema puede ser considerado objeto de estudio, incluidos los sistemas de producción y los de prestación de servicios, entre otros, mediante la evaluación de sus contextos reales. Esta tesis doctoral propone afrontar la gestión del mantenimiento a través del desarrollo de tres líneas principales de investigación estrechamente vinculadas. ¿ La primera es el núcleo, e ilustra la mayoría de los aspectos metodológicos de la tesis. Se refiere al uso de métodos MCDM para apoyar decisiones estratégicas de mantenimiento, y para hacer frente a la incertidumbre que afecta a los datos/evaluaciones, incluso cuando están involucrados varios responsables (expertos en mantenimiento) en la toma de decisiones. ¿ La segunda línea desarrolla análisis de fiabilidad para sistemas complejos reales (también en términos de fiabilidad humana) sobre cuya base se debe implementar cualquier actividad de mantenimiento. Estos análisis consideran la configuración de fiabilidad de los componentes del sistema en estudio y las características específicas del entorno operativo. ¿ La tercera línea de investigación aborda aspectos metodológicos importantes de la gestión de mantenimiento y enfatiza la necesidad de monitorizar el funcionamiento de las actividades de mantenimiento y de evaluar su efectividad utilizando indicadores adecuados. Se ha elaborado una amplia gama de casos de estudio del mundo real para evaluar la eficacia de los métodos MCDM en el mantenimiento y así probar la utilidad del enfoque propuesto.[CA] Aquesta tesi doctoral proposa l'ús de mètodes de presa de decisions multi-criteri (MCDM, per les seves inicials en anglès) com a eina estratègica per donar suport a la gestió del manteniment de sistemes complexos. El desenvolupament d'aquesta tesi doctoral s'emmarca dins d'un acord de cotutela entre la Università degli Studi di Palermo (UNIPA) i la Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), dins dels seus respectius programes de doctorat en 'Enginyeria d'Innovació Tecnològica' i ' Matemàtiques '. Aquests programes estan estretament vinculats a través del tòpic MCDM, ja que proporciona eines crucials per gestionar el manteniment de sistemes complexos reals utilitzant anàlisis matemàtics profunds. El propòsit d'aquesta sinergia és tenir en compte de forma sòlida la incertesa en atribuir avaluacions subjectius, recopilar i sintetitzar judicis atribuïts per diversos responsables de la presa de decisions, i tractar amb conjunts grans d'aquests elements en els problemes plantejats. El tema principal del present treball de doctorat es la gestió de les activitats de manteniment per augmentar els nivells d'innovació tecnològica i el rendiment dels sistemes complexos. Qualsevol sistema pot ser considerat objecte d'estudi, inclosos els sistemes de producció i els de prestació de serveis, entre d'altres, mitjançant l'avaluació dels seus contextos reals. Aquesta tesi doctoral proposa afrontar la gestió del manteniment mitjançant el desenvolupament de tres línies principals d'investigació estretament vinculades. ¿ La primera és el nucli, i il·lustra la majoria dels aspectes metodològics de la tesi. Es refereix a l'ús de mètodes MCDM per donar suport a decisions estratègiques de manteniment, i per fer front a la incertesa que afecta les dades/avaluacions, fins i tot quan estan involucrats diversos responsables (experts en manteniment) en la presa de decisions. ¿ La segona línia desenvolupa anàlisis de fiabilitat per a sistemes complexos reals (també en termes de fiabilitat humana) sobre la qual base s'ha d'implementar qualsevol activitat de manteniment. Aquestes anàlisis consideren la configuració de fiabilitat dels components del sistema en estudi i les característiques específiques de l'entorn operatiu. ¿ La tercera línia d'investigació aborda aspectes metodològics importants de la gestió de manteniment i emfatitza la necessitat de monitoritzar el funcionament de les activitats de manteniment i d'avaluar la seva efectivitat utilitzant indicadors adequats. S'ha elaborat una àmplia gamma de casos d'estudi del món real per avaluar l'eficàcia dels mètodes MCDM en el manteniment i així provar la utilitat de l'enfocament proposat.[EN] This doctoral thesis proposes using multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods as a strategic tool to support maintenance management of complex systems. The development of this doctoral thesis is framed within a cotutelle (co-tutoring) agreement between the Università degli Studi di Palermo (UNIPA) and the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), within their respective programmes of doctorates in 'Technological Innovation Engineering' and 'Mathematics'. Regarding this thesis, these programmes are closely linked through the topic of MCDM, providing crucial tools to manage maintenance of real complex systems by applying in-depth mathematical analyses. The purpose of this connection is to robustly take into account uncertainty in attributing subjective evaluations, collecting and synthetizing judgments attributed by various decision makers, and dealing with large sets of elements characterising the faced issue. The main topic of the present doctoral work is the management of maintenance activities to increase the levels of technological innovation and performance of the analysed complex systems. All kinds of systems can be considered as objects of study, including production systems and service delivery systems, among others, by evaluating their real contexts. Thus, this doctoral thesis proposes facing maintenance management through the development of three tightly linked main research lines. ¿ The first is the core and illustrates most of the methodological aspects of the thesis. It refers to the use of MCDM methods for supporting strategic maintenance decisions, and dealing with uncertainty affecting data/evaluations even when several decision makers are involved (experts in maintenance). ¿ The second line develops reliability analyses for real complex systems (also in terms of human reliability analysis) on the basis of which any maintenance activity must be implemented. These analyses are approached by considering the reliability configuration of both the components belonging to the system under study and the specific features of the operational environment. ¿ The third research line focuses on important methodological aspects to support maintenance management, and emphasises the need to monitor the performance of maintenance activities and evaluate their effectiveness using suitable indicators. A wide range of real real-world case studies has been faced to evaluate the effectiveness of MCDM methods in maintenance and then prove the usefulness of the proposed approach.Carpitella, S. (2019). Multi-criteria decision methods to support the maintenance management of complex systems [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/11911

Sustainable Assessment in Supply Chain and Infrastructure Management

In the competitive business environment or public domain, the sustainability assessment in supply chain and infrastructure management are important for any organization. Organizations are currently striving to improve their sustainable strategies through preparedness, response, and recovery because of increasing competitiveness, community, and regulatory pressure. Thus, it is necessary to develop a meaningful and more focused understanding of sustainability in supply chain management and infrastructure management practices. In the context of a supply chain, sustainability implies that companies identify, assess, and manage impacts and risks in all the echelons of the supply chain, considering downstream and upstream activities. Similarly, the sustainable infrastructure management indicates the ability of infrastructure to meet the requirements of the present without sacrificing the ability of future generations to address their needs. The complexities regarding sustainable supply chain and infrastructure management have driven managers and professionals to seek different solutions. This Special Issue aims to provide readers with the most recent research results on the aforementioned subjects. In addition, it offers some solutions and also raises some questions for further research and development toward sustainable supply chain and infrastructure management

MEASUREMENT, MODELLING AND ANALYSIS OF CONTAINER PORT PERFORMANCE

This thesis aims to develop a new framework of container port/terminal performance measurement, modelling and analysis. There is a need for a new performance measurement framework not only to meet the need of port stakeholders, but also to develop diagnostic tools capable of supporting decision-making in complex port/terminal operations in an uncertain environment. This study follows the related questions of ‘what to measure’, ‘how to measure’ and ‘how to control and improve’ container port performance. In this regard, this study proposes the development of a systematic approach to address the multi-stakeholder dimension in port performance measurement. This was achieved by integrating a multi-stakeholder dimension in a port performance measurement framework which takes into account the corresponding port performance indicators (PPIs). To this end, this study identified six dimensions of crucial interests in major (container) ports investigating stakeholders’ goals and objectives, and discussed them with port stakeholders. The six dimensions defined in this study cover the range of port activities to cope with new evolutionary changes, to measure and communicate their impacts on society, economy and environment and to be consistent with their goals. Then, through a literature review and an analysis of industrial practices the associated PPIs were selected. The semi-structured interviews were applied to assess the suitability of the potential indicators and to test the feasibility of the selected indicators. The multi-stakeholder dimension involves both quantitative and qualitative PPIs in order to reflect complexity of port/terminal business environments. This study develops two hybrid port performance measurement models: PPIs independency model and PPIs interdependency model. In the first port performance measurement model, a hybrid approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Logic based Evidential Reasoning (FER) for solving multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problems is applied to address the challenges in port performance measurement. AHP is applied for a part of the FER to evaluate the relative importance of the selected PPIs. FER is applied for dealing with uncertainties presented in the evaluations of the selected PPIs as well as aggregation of the evaluations of PPIs and their importance. An analysis of 12 container terminals in South Korea is conducted to validate the proposed method. The second approach, a new conceptual PPI interdependency model, is developed using a hybrid approach of a Fuzzy Logic based Evidential Reasoning (FER), a Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and an Analytic Network Process (ANP). These methods are combined to deal with the inherent data uncertainties and the interdependencies among the port performance indicators (PPIs). Its novelty lies in its capability of dealing with interdependency among the performance measures as well as accommodating both qualitative and quantitative evaluations on the measures simultaneously. An analysis of 4 major container ports in South Korea is conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. The empirical investigations are conducted by taking the perspectives from different port stakeholders. For instance, the quantitative data (i.e. cargo and vessel operations and financial data) are collected directly from terminal operating companies and information systems/databases managed by port authorities, government and credit rating agencies. The qualitative PPIs are collected using questionnaires from three groups of terminal operators, users (i.e. shipping lines, shippers, logistics service providers and freight forwarders) and administrators (i.e. port authority and government) to assess their own associated PPIs to measure each container port/terminal performance. The empirical results indicate that the hybrid approach attempting to use quantitative modelling for dealing with the uncertainties and interdependency problems can be successfully fulfilled. The framework and its supporting method suggest an effective performance measurement tool and offer a diagnostic instrument to ports/terminals to satisfy the port stakeholders in a flexible manner. Finally, this thesis proposes a decision making framework for prioritising and selecting port performance improvement strategies. It can be achieved by the concepts of benchmarking-best practices using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) incorporating a fuzzy order preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) method. Based on the results obtained from the two performance approaches, the leading performer (i.e. Busan New Port) and the poor performer (i.e. Busan North Port) are analysed as real cases to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. The results yielded by the framework present the ranking of strategy options in terms of their preference to different terminal operating companies (TOCs), which enables decision makers to find optimal solutions to improving performance under their own dynamic business environments

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF MARINE PILOTS USING ADVANCED DECISION MAKING METHODS

Seaports play a significant role in global logistics networks, contributing to the efficiency of both national and international economic growth. Dramatic changes in the supply chain encourage ports to maintain effective integration when delivering services. Ports are thus parts of complex systems operating in uncertain operational environments. Accident investigation shows that there has been a significant increase in marine accidents contributed to by human error during marine pilotage operations. The human element has been identified as a major critical factor for most operational failures. Therefore, an adequate understanding of the key factors influencing pilot reliability plays a vital role in all high-risk industries, among which maritime operations are included. This study aims to develop a new quantitative marine pilot reliability assessment methodology, known as the Marine Pilot’s Reliability Index (MPRI). The MPRI seeks to help decision makers in identifying the effects of certain factors on pilot reliability. Although human reliability has been investigated in different disciplines, there is no consensus on the selected criteria. Therefore, in this study, the researcher employed a hybrid research approach, comprised of qualitative and quantitative approaches in a sequential exploratory approach to elicit the key factors that are considered dominant in maintaining the reliability of a marine port pilot. This was conducted through a series of investigation tools such as field observation, semi-structured focus-group interviews, and port pilotage accident data analysis. This step culminated in a composite of four main criteria with thirteen sub-factors, which pilots considered dominant to their reliability. These factors are arranged in a hierarchal order forming the new developed MPRI. To ensure the applicability of the identified MPRI factors, the researcher applied a Delphi technique in examining the degree of agreement among experts towards the identified MPRIs. Two rounds of questionnaires were conducted. The results obtained show a high degree of agreement among experts towards the identified factors. This is followed by the application of the analytical hierarchal process (AHP) approach to determine the relative weights of all identified criteria. The second approach, a new conceptual MPRI interdependency model is constructed using a hybrid approach of a fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (FDEMATEL) and an analytical network process (ANP). This hybrid approach helps to deal with inherent uncertainties and highlights the degree of interdependences in the developed MPRIs. To examine the feasibility of the proposed model and determine the outputs from this research, the researcher employed a fuzzy evidential reasoning (FER) for solving multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems in conjunction with the aforementioned approaches to empirically assess the reliability of a marine pilot. The application of FER helps manage uncertainties resulting from the nature of operations. Three senior marine pilots have been assessed using the developed reliability assessment tool. The results reveal the novelty of this assessment tool in offering an effective and flexible reliability assessment and a diagnostic instrument for decision makers to predict a reduction in a pilot’s reliability. The developed model is partially validated using a sensitivity analysis. The novelty of this work offers a foundation towards assessing the reliability of marine pilotage operations using risk-based methodologies with variance techniques to facilitate the acquisition of qualitative and quantitative data and to ensure safe and efficient port operations

Risk-based maintenance of critical and complex systems

Tableau d’honneur de la Faculté des études supérieures et postdoctorales, 2016-2017.De nos jours, la plupart des systèmes dans divers secteurs critiques tels que l'aviation, le pétrole et les soins de santé sont devenus très complexes et dynamiques, et par conséquent peuvent à tout moment s'arrêter de fonctionner. Pour éviter que cela ne se reproduise et ne devienne incontrôlable ce qui engagera des pertes énormes en matière de coûts et d'indisponibilité; l'adoption de stratégies de contrôle et de maintenance s'avèrent plus que nécessaire et même vitale. Dans le génie des procédés, les stratégies optimales de maintenance pour ces systèmes pourraient avoir un impact significatif sur la réduction des coûts et sur les temps d'arrêt, sur la maximisation de la fiabilité et de la productivité, sur l'amélioration de la qualité et enfin pour atteindre les objectifs souhaités des compagnies. En outre, les risques et les incertitudes associés à ces systèmes sont souvent composés de plusieurs relations de cause à effet de façon extrêmement complexe. Cela pourrait mener à une augmentation du nombre de défaillances de ces systèmes. Par conséquent, un outil d'analyse de défaillance avancée est nécessaire pour considérer les interactions complexes de défaillance des composants dans les différentes phases du cycle de vie du produit pour assurer les niveaux élevés de sécurité et de fiabilité. Dans cette thèse, on aborde dans un premier temps les lacunes des méthodes d'analyse des risques/échec et celles qui permettent la sélection d'une classe de stratégie de maintenance à adopter. Nous développons ensuite des approches globales pour la maintenance et l'analyse du processus de défaillance fondée sur les risques des systèmes et machines complexes connus pour être utilisées dans toutes les industries. Les recherches menées pour la concrétisation de cette thèse ont donné lieu à douze contributions importantes qui se résument comme suit: Dans la première contribution, on aborde les insuffisances des méthodes en cours de sélection de la stratégie de maintenance et on développe un cadre fondé sur les risques en utilisant des méthodes dites du processus de hiérarchie analytique (Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), de cartes cognitives floues (Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM)), et la théorie des ensembles flous (Fuzzy Soft Sets (FSS)) pour sélectionner la meilleure politique de maintenance tout en considérant les incertitudes. La deuxième contribution aborde les insuffisances de la méthode de l'analyse des modes de défaillance, de leurs effets et de leur criticité (AMDEC) et son amélioration en utilisant un modèle AMDEC basée sur les FCM. Les contributions 3 et 4, proposent deux outils de modélisation dynamique des risques et d'évaluation à l'aide de la FCM pour faire face aux risques de l'externalisation de la maintenance et des réseaux de collaboration. Ensuite, on étend les outils développés et nous proposons un outil d'aide à la décision avancée pour prédire l'impact de chaque risque sur les autres risques ou sur la performance du système en utilisant la FCM (contribution 5).Dans la sixième contribution, on aborde les risques associés à la maintenance dans le cadre des ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)) et on propose une autre approche intégrée basée sur la méthode AMDEC floue pour la priorisation des risques. Dans les contributions 7, 8, 9 et 10, on effectue une revue de la littérature concernant la maintenance basée sur les risques des dispositifs médicaux, puisque ces appareils sont devenus très complexes et sophistiqués et l'application de modèles de maintenance et d'optimisation pour eux est assez nouvelle. Ensuite, on développe trois cadres intégrés pour la planification de la maintenance et le remplacement de dispositifs médicaux axée sur les risques. Outre les contributions ci-dessus, et comme étude de cas, nous avons réalisé un projet intitulé “Mise à jour de guide de pratique clinique (GPC) qui est un cadre axé sur les priorités pour la mise à jour des guides de pratique cliniques existantes” au centre interdisciplinaire de recherche en réadaptation et intégration sociale du Québec (CIRRIS). Nos travaux au sein du CIRRIS ont amené à deux importantes contributions. Dans ces deux contributions (11e et 12e) nous avons effectué un examen systématique de la littérature pour identifier les critères potentiels de mise à jour des GPCs. Nous avons validé et pondéré les critères identifiés par un sondage international. Puis, sur la base des résultats de la onzième contribution, nous avons développé un cadre global axé sur les priorités pour les GPCs. Ceci est la première fois qu'une telle méthode quantitative a été proposée dans la littérature des guides de pratiques cliniques. L'évaluation et la priorisation des GPCs existants sur la base des critères validés peuvent favoriser l'acheminement des ressources limitées dans la mise à jour de GPCs qui sont les plus sensibles au changement, améliorant ainsi la qualité et la fiabilité des décisions de santé.Today, most systems in various critical sectors such as aviation, oil and health care have become very complex and dynamic, and consequently can at any time stop working. To prevent this from reoccurring and getting out of control which incur huge losses in terms of costs and downtime; the adoption of control and maintenance strategies are more than necessary and even vital. In process engineering, optimal maintenance strategies for these systems could have a significant impact on reducing costs and downtime, maximizing reliability and productivity, improving the quality and finally achieving the desired objectives of the companies. In addition, the risks and uncertainties associated with these systems are often composed of several extremely complex cause and effect relationships. This could lead to an increase in the number of failures of such systems. Therefore, an advanced failure analysis tool is needed to consider the complex interactions of components’ failures in the different phases of the product life cycle to ensure high levels of safety and reliability. In this thesis, we address the shortcomings of current failure/risk analysis and maintenance policy selection methods in the literature. Then, we develop comprehensive approaches to maintenance and failure analysis process based on the risks of complex systems and equipment which are applicable in all industries. The research conducted for the realization of this thesis has resulted in twelve important contributions, as follows: In the first contribution, we address the shortcomings of the current methods in selecting the optimum maintenance strategy and develop an integrated risk-based framework using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM), and fuzzy Soft set (FSS) tools to select the best maintenance policy by considering the uncertainties.The second contribution aims to address the shortcomings of traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method and enhance it using a FCM-based FMEA model. Contributions 3 and 4, present two dynamic risk modeling and assessment tools using FCM for dealing with risks of outsourcing maintenance and collaborative networks. Then, we extend the developed tools and propose an advanced decision support tool for predicting the impact of each risk on the other risks or on the performance of system using FCM (contribution 5). In the sixth contribution, we address the associated risks in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) maintenance and we propose another integrated approach using fuzzy FMEA method for prioritizing the risks. In the contributions 7, 8, 9, and 10, we perform a literature review regarding the risk-based maintenance of medical devices, since these devices have become very complex and sophisticated and the application of maintenance and optimization models to them is fairly new. Then, we develop three integrated frameworks for risk-based maintenance and replacement planning of medical devices. In addition to above contributions, as a case study, we performed a project titled “Updating Clinical Practice Guidelines; a priority-based framework for updating existing guidelines” in CIRRIS which led to the two important contributions. In these two contributions (11th and 12th) we first performed a systematic literature review to identify potential criteria in updating CPGs. We validated and weighted the identified criteria through an international survey. Then, based on the results of the eleventh contribution, we developed a comprehensive priority-based framework for updating CPGs based on the approaches that we had already developed and applied success fully in other industries. This is the first time that such a quantitative method has been proposed in the literature of guidelines. Evaluation and prioritization of existing CPGs based on the validated criteria can promote channelling limited resources into updating CPGs that are most sensitive to change, thus improving the quality and reliability of healthcare decisions made based on current CPGs. Keywords: Risk-based maintenance, Maintenance strategy selection, FMEA, FCM, Medical devices, Clinical practice guidelines