Integrated game-theory modelling for multi enterprise-wide coordination and collaboration under uncertain competitive environment

In this work, an integrated Game Theory (GT) approach is developed for the coordination of multi-enterprise Supply Chains (SCs) in a competitive uncertain environment. The conflicting goals of the different participants are solved through coordination contracts using a non-cooperative non-zero-sum Stackelberg game under the leadership of the manufacturer. The Stackelberg payoff matrix is built under the nominal conditions, and then evaluated under different probable uncertain scenarios using a Monte-Carlo simulation. The competition between the Stackelberg game players and the third parties is solved through a Nash Equilibrium game. A novel way to analyze the game outcome is proposed based on a win–win Stackelberg set of “Pareto-frontiers”. The benefits of the resulting MINLP tactical models are illustrated by a case study with different vendors around a client SC. The results show that the coordinated decisions lead to higher expected payoffs compared to the standalone case, while also leading to uncertainty reduction.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Coping with Extreme Events: Institutional Flocking

Recent measurements in the North Atlantic confirm that the thermohaline circulation driving the Gulf Stream has come to a stand. Oceanographic monitoring over the last 50 years already showed that the circulation was weakening. Under the influence of the large inflow of melting water in Northern Atlantic waters during last summer, it has now virtually stopped. Consequently, the KNMI and the RIVM estimate the average . In this essay we will explore how such a new risk profile affects the distribution of risks among societal groups, and the way in which governing institutions need to adapt in order to be prepared for situations of rapid but unknown change. The next section will first introduce an analytical perspective, building upon the Risk Society thesis and a proposed model of ‘institutional flocking’.temperature to decrease by 3°C in the next 15 years

The Impact of Complexity, Rate of Change and Information Availability on the Production Planning and Control Structure

The organizational theory literature argues that the more uncertain the environment, the more likely the firm’s operational decision structure is decentralized. However, it remains unclear which uncertainty dimensions (i.e. complexity, rate of change and lack of information) impacts the production planning and control structure the most given today’s turbulent manufacturing environments. Based on 206 responses from medium sized Dutch discrete parts manufacturing firms, this study retests the impact of these uncertainty dimensions. This study indicates that each dimension of uncertainty affects the production planning and control structure in a different way. In general, complexity, rate of change and lack of information result in a decentralization of the operational planning and control decision structure, but at the same time a centralization of the customer-order processing decision structure.empirical research method;production planning and control structure;structural equations model;uncertainty

Stochastic multi-period multi-product multi-objective Aggregate Production Planning model in multi-echelon supply chain

In this paper a multi-period multi-product multi-objective aggregate production planning (APP) model is proposed for an uncertain multi-echelon supply chain considering financial risk, customer satisfaction, and human resource training. Three conflictive objective functions and several sets of real constraints are considered concurrently in the proposed APP model. Some parameters of the proposed model are assumed to be uncertain and handled through a two-stage stochastic programming (TSSP) approach. The proposed TSSP is solved using three multi-objective solution procedures, i.e., the goal attainment technique, the modified ε-constraint method, and STEM method. The whole procedure is applied in an automotive resin and oil supply chain as a real case study wherein the efficacy and applicability of the proposed approaches are illustrated in comparison with existing experimental production planning method

Simulation of the Long-Term Effects of Decentralized and Adaptive Investments in Cross-Agency Interoperable and Standard IT Systems

Governments have come under increasing pressure to promote horizontal flows of information across agencies, but investment in cross-agency interoperable and standard systems have been minimally made since it seems to require government agencies to give up the autonomies in managing own systems and its outcomes may be subject to many external and interaction risks. By producing an agent-based model using 'Blanche' software, this study provides policy-makers with a simulation-based demonstration illustrating how government agencies can autonomously and interactively build, standardize, and operate interoperable IT systems in a decentralized environment. This simulation designs an illustrative body of 20 federal agencies and their missions. A multiplicative production function is adopted to model the interdependent effects of heterogeneous systems on joint mission capabilities, and six social network drivers (similarity, reciprocity, centrality, mission priority, interdependencies, and transitivity) are assumed to jointly determine inter-agency system utilization. This exercise simulates five policy alternatives derived from joint implementation of three policy levers (IT investment portfolio, standardization, and inter-agency operation). The simulation results show that modest investments in standard systems improve interoperability remarkably, but that a wide range of untargeted interoperability with lagging operational capabilities improves mission capability less remarkably. Nonetheless, exploratory modeling against the varying parameters for technology, interdependency, and social capital demonstrates that the wide range of untargeted interoperability responds better to uncertain future states and hence reduces the variances of joint mission capabilities. In sum, decentralized and adaptive investments in interoperable and standard systems can enhance joint mission capabilities substantially and robustly without requiring radical changes toward centralized IT management.Public IT Investment, Interoperability, Standardization, Social Network, Agent-Based Modeling, Exploratory Modeling

Division of Labour and Social Coordination Modes : A simple simulation model

This paper presents a preliminary investigation of the relationship between the process of functional division of labour and the modes in which activities and plans are coordinated. We consider a very simple production process: a given heap of bank-notes has to be counted by a group of accountants. Because of limited individual capabilities and/or the possibilities of mistakes and external disturbances, the task has to be divided among several accountants and a hierarchical coordination problem arises. We can imagine several different ways of socially implementing coordination of devided tasks. 1) a central planner can compute the optimal architecture of the system; 2) a central planner can promote quantity adjustments by moving accountants from hierarchical levels where there exist idle resources to levels where resources are insufficient; 3) quasi-market mechanisms can use quantity or price signals for promoting decentralized adjustments. By means of a simple simulation model, based on Genetic Algorithms and Classifiers Systems, we can study the dynamic efficiency properties of each coordination mode and in particular their capability, speed and cost of adaptation to changing environmental situations (i.e. variations of the size of the task and/or variations of agents' capabilities). Such interesting issues as returns to scale, specialization and workers exploitation can be easily studied in the same model