A Web-Based Decision Support Systems for the Chronic Deteriorating Diseases

In general, most human physiological organs systems, which are constructed by collecting more than one part to perform either single or multiple functions. In addition, the successive times between failures are not necessarily identically distributed. More generally, they can become smaller (an indication of deterioration). However, if any organic deterioration is detected, then the decision of when to take the intervention, given the costs of diagnosis and therapeutics, is of fundamental importance. At the time of the decision, the degree of future human organic deterioration, which is likely to be uncertain, is of primary interest for the decision maker (for example, determining the prevalence of disease, doing a population survey, or measuring the level of a toxin). This paper develops a possible structural design of decision support systems by considering the sensitivity analysis as well as the optimal prior and posterior decisions. The proposed design of Bayesian decision support systems facilitates the effective use of the computing capability of computers and provides a systematic way to integrate the expert’s opinions and the sampling information which will furnish decision makers with valuable support for quality decision-making

GRAPHICAL TECHNIQUES IN DEBIASING: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY

Base rate and conjunction fallacies are consistent biases that influence decision making involving probability judgments. We develop simple graphical techniques and test their efficacy in correcting for these biases. Preliminary results suggest that graphical techniques help to overcome these biases and improve decision making. We examine the implications of incorporating these simple techniques in Executive Information Systems.Information Systems Working Papers Serie

How Well Do Managers Know And Use Evaluation Methods For Assessing E-Business Transformations

This paper investigates methods for assessing IT induced business transformations based on a quantitative empirical Austrian study. We show that decision makers are gaining more information about methods but are not equally applying their knowledge in practice. We observed a noticeable gap between levels of diffusion (known) and infusion (used) of evaluation methods. There remains a clear emphasis on tangible costs and benefits reflected by the highlighted knowledge and application of financial methods. Results would warrant renewed attention to the role of organisational change in evaluation practice and organisational learning in the context of analytical dynamic IT capacities

Governance informatics: Managing the performance of inter-organizational governance networks

This article introduces an informatics approach to managing the performance of inter-organizational governance networks that are designed to create, implement and evaluate public policies and the range of activities undertaken by practicing public administrators. We label this type of information flow process management governance informatics and lay out a range of theoretical constructs that may be used to collect, categorize, and analyze performance in inter-organizational governance networks. We discuss how governance informatics may be able to assess and re-design the accountability and transparency regimes of information flows in inter-organizational governance networks. The integration of a governance informatics-driven performance management system into an existing regional transportation planning network is presented as an application of the framework

Conceptual Design Model of Computerized Personal-Decision AID (ComPDA)

To date, the attentions given to the improvement of decision support at organizational level has been enormous. On the contrary, academic research in improving the performance of computerized decision aid (CDA) for personal decision is lacking, in which some are dated. Nowadays, the existence of CDA which handles personal decision is mushrooming and progressively getting attention from users. Despite that, users’ perceptions of the suitable decision strategy and technique for CDA have not been subjected to systematic investigation. Literature reviews also indicate that most users do not go for complex mathematical techniques despite the fact that these techniques are better at handling the risks and uncertainties in decisions. In fact, more often than not, the development process of CDAs does not seem to adhere to any conceptual and theoretical model. In view of that, this study aims to propose a conceptual design model for computerized personal-decision aid (ComPDA). The following objectives are outlined to support the general aim: (i) to identify appropriate decision strategy and technique for ComPDA, (ii) to incorporate identified strategy and technique in the construction of conceptual design model for ComPDA (iii) to validate the conceptual design model in different situations via prototyping method and (iv) to measure the users’ perceived helpfulness of the ComPDA prototypes. Participatory design method was implemented in order to achieve objective i and ii. The findings were incorporated into the construction of the conceptual design model of ComPDA. In achieving objective iii, the conceptual design model was validated in two different case studies via prototyping: A- choosing development methodology in mobile computing course (md-Matrix); and B- purchasing a mobile phone (ep-Matrix). In achieving objective iv, an instrument (named as Q-HELP) was developed to measure the helpfulness (HLP) of the prototypes. This study identified four relevant constructs pertinent to helpfulness; reliability (REL), decision making effort (EFF), confidence (CON), and decision awareness (AWR). Altogether, 122 respondents participated where 63 were from case study A and 59 from case study B. Eight hypotheses were formulated comprising testing for correlation between all the constructs in Q-HELP with helpfulness, testing the average time spent to make a selection with and without the proposed ComPDA and testing if the mean score of helpfulness of the proposed ComPDA is high. Paired Samples t Test, Pearson Correlation analyses and descriptive analyses were utilized to validate the hypotheses. The results show that: REL and HLP are significantly correlated, EFF and HLP are significantly correlated, CON and HLP are significantly correlated, AWR and HLP are significantly correlated, the use of md-Matrix and ep-Matrix significantly reduces the time spent to make selection, mean score of helpfulness of md-Matrix is fairly high and mean score of helpfulness of ep-Matrix is high. However, it is concluded that the overall results exhibit sufficient indication that md-Matrix and ep-Matrix were found helpful to users in terms of reliability, lessening the decision making effort, increasing confidence and also awareness in decision making. This study has produced the following outcomes, along with achieving all of its objectives: (i) a conceptual design model for ComPDA which incorporates suitable decision strategies and techniques identified via systematic investigations; (ii) two functional ComPDA prototypes to validate the conceptual design model and to demonstrate its applicability in different situations, (iii) an instrument for measuring helpfulness which includes dimensions from outcome and process aspects; and (iv) comparative analyses of decision models, strategies and techniques which provide basis for future studies.

Use and effectiveness of decision support systems (DSS): Study of the Saudi private sector

In the industrialized world today, management is characterized by extensive use of computers to manage rapid change, information overload, and complex decision-making. Literature suggests that Decision Support Systems, computer packages offering information retrieval, problem-structuring models, decision alternatives, and other types of decision support, are effective extensions of human decision-making and offer substantial benefits to organizations utilizing them. In spite of overwhelmingly positive reviews for DSS, empirical literature has produced inconsistent results regarding DSS effectiveness, and definitions of “effectiveness” and of DSS itself are varied and sometimes contradictory. Distinguishing DSS from MIS (management information systems) and other types of managerial computer support has proven to be an essential part of DSS research. An additional gap in DSS research to date is that little is known about DSS use in developing countries and the potential of DSS to improve decision-making and overall organizational effectiveness. The present empirical study surveyed one member from each of Saudi Arabia\u27s largest corporations to determine to what extent DSS has been incorporated into the companies\u27 decision-making procedures. A second purpose was to determine decision-makers\u27 perceptions of the effectiveness of DSS in terms of their decision processes (time savings, availability of more alternatives, cognitive effort) as well as decision outcomes (decision accuracy and overall quality). The research revealed a high degree of use and enthusiasm for DSS, but revealed gaps in Saudi utilization of the systems. The research identified specific obstacles to more pervasive adaptation and enjoyment of benefits, including a lack of research stemming from researchers\u27 misperceptions of the private sector\u27s interest in and ability to understand Decision Support Systems

Método AHP como optimização na selecção de fornecedores numa empresa de materiais de construção

Nos dias que correm cada vez mais a diferença entre o sucesso e o fracasso de uma empresa depende da estratégia que escolhem seguir, sendo de igual forma importante maximizar quer os recursos materiais quer os recursos humanos. Assim sendo, cada vez mais empresas optam por incentivar os seus colaboradores a desempenhar um papel importante no processo de decisão. Para isso a estratégia da empresa tem de estar alinhada com cada actividade desempenhada pelos seus colaboradores. Esta dissertação tem por base uma pesquisa de vários métodos multicritério existentes, tendo sido escolhido o método Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) para determinar o melhor fornecedor de cimento para a empresa Materiais de Construção da Minhoteira, Lda. Foi então necessário desenvolver um software tendo por base o Excel que permitisse fazer a análise das diversas alternativas perante os critérios mencionados. A aplicação informática “Make and Choice” procura contribuir da melhor forma para uma escolha potencialmente mais acertada. Conclui-se que “Make and Choice”, utilizando o método AHP, foi adequada para conseguir responder a todos os objectivos inicialmente propostos, foi ainda possível verificar os benefícios que advêm da sua aplicação. E desta forma, perceber que é possível ter o auxílio na tomada de decisão de ferramentas ou métodos que permitem obter a melhor solução.These days more and more the difference between success and failure of a company depends on the strategy they choose to follow, being equally important to maximize either the material resources or human resources. Therefore, more and more companies choose to encourage their employees to play an important role in decision making. For this, the company's strategy must be aligned with each activity performed by its employees. This dissertation is based on a survey of various existing multicriteria methods, the method having been chosen Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the best supplier of cement to the company Materiais da Construção da Minhoteira, Lda. It was then necessary develop software based on Excel that allows the analysis of the various alternatives before the criteria mentioned. The software application "Make and Choice" tries to contribute the best form for one choice potentially more accurate. Concludes that "Make and Choice", using the AHP, was adapted managing to reply to all the objectives initially proposed, it was still possible to see the benefits arising from its application. And after this manner, realize that it is possible to have the aid in the decision making of tools or methods that allow obtaining the best solution.Ces jours-ci de plus en plus la différence entre le succès et l'échec d'une entreprise dépend de la stratégie qu'ils choisissent de suivre, faisant également important de maximiser à la fois les ressources matérielles ou humaines. Par conséquent, de plus en plus d'entreprises choisissent d'encourager leurs employés à jouer un rôle important dans la prise de décision. Pour ce faire, la stratégie de l'entreprise doit être alignée avec chaque activité réalisée par ses employés. Cette thèse est basée sur une recherche de diverses méthodes multicritères existantes, ayant été choisie le méthode Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) afin de déterminer le meilleur fournisseur de ciment pour l’entreprise Materiais de Construção da Minhoteira, Lda. Était donc nécessaire développer un logiciel basé sur Excel qui permet de faire l'analyse des différentes alternatives par rapport aux critères mentionnés. L'application informatique “Make and Choice” rechercher le mieux contribuer pour une choix éventuellement plus précis. Conclut que “Make and Choice”, en utilisant l'AHP, était adéquat pour en mesure de répondre à tous les objectifs initialement proposés, il était encore possible de voir les avantages résultant de son application. Et donc, se rendre compte qu'il est possible d'avoir de l'aide dans la prise de décision des outils ou méthodes qui permettront d'obtenir la meilleure solution

Into the Black Box: Designing for Transparency in Artificial Intelligence

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)The rapid infusion of artificial intelligence into everyday technologies means that consumers are likely to interact with intelligent systems that provide suggestions and recommendations on a daily basis in the very near future. While these technologies promise much, current issues in low transparency create high potential to confuse end-users, limiting the market viability of these technologies. While efforts are underway to make machine learning models more transparent, HCI currently lacks an understanding of how these model-generated explanations should best translate into the practicalities of system design. To address this gap, my research took a pragmatic approach to improving system transparency for end-users. Through a series of three studies, I investigated the need and value of transparency to end-users, and explored methods to improve system designs to accomplish greater transparency in intelligent systems offering recommendations. My research resulted in a summarized taxonomy that outlines a variety of motivations for why users ask questions of intelligent systems; useful for considering the type and category of information users might appreciate when interacting with AI-based recommendations. I also developed a categorization of explanation types, known as explanation vectors, that is organized into groups that correspond to user knowledge goals. Explanation vectors provide system designers options for delivering explanations of system processes beyond those of basic explainability. I developed a detailed user typology, which is a four-factor categorization of the predominant attitudes and opinion schemes of everyday users interacting with AI-based recommendations; useful to understand the range of user sentiment towards AI-based recommender features, and possibly useful for tailoring interface design by user type. Lastly, I developed and tested an evaluation method known as the System Transparency Evaluation Method (STEv), which allows for real-world systems and prototypes to be evaluated and improved through a low-cost query method. Results from this dissertation offer concrete direction to interaction designers as to how these results might manifest in the design of interfaces that are more transparent to end users. These studies provide a framework and methodology that is complementary to existing HCI evaluation methods, and lay the groundwork upon which other research into improving system transparency might build

Improving Data Quality, Model Functionalities and Optimizing User Interfaces in Decision Support Systems

This dissertation contributes to the research on three core elements of decision support systems for managers and consumers: data management, model management and user interface. With respect to data management this dissertation proposes an approach for reducing unobserved product heterogeneity in online transaction data sets. The example of an online auction data set is used to investigate the approach’s ability to improve data quality. In the area of model management this dissertation contributes an approach to elicit consumer product preferences for exponential (beside linear) utility functions aiming at predicting consumers’ utilities and willingness-to-pay for individual products. The question which utility function (linear or exponential) is better suited for predicting product utilities and the willingness to pay is evaluated using a laboratory experiment. Further, in the area of user interfaces this dissertation deals with information visualization. Focusing on coordinate systems, a laboratory experiment is used to investigate which visualization format (two or three dimensional) is better suited for supporting simple vs. complex decision making scenarios and which criteria matter when choosing a visualization format for a particular level of decision making complexity

Web–based Group Decision Support Systems In Defence Technologies

Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2006Thesis (M.Sc.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, 2006Bu çalışmada, İTÜ – Web GDSS adı altında bir Web tabanlı karar destek sisteminin yapısı ve tasarım detayları anlatılmıştır ve bir karar destek sistemi oluştururken karşılaşılan zorluklardan bahsedilmektedir. İTÜ - Web GDSS çok ölçütlü karar verme metotlarından biri olan Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci modelini kullanmaktadır. İTÜ – Web GDSS Web tabanlı bir grup karar destek sistemidir. Bu sistem, kullanıcılara bir hedef doğrultusunda kendi kararlarını almalarına yardımcı olmaktadır. İTÜ – Web GDSS, grup kararını da desteklemekte olup kullanıcılara kendi kararlarının yanı sıra grup kararlarını gözlemleyebilmelerini sağlamaktadır. İTÜ – Web GDSS bir yazılım aracıdır ve AHS modelini karar alma sürecinde kullanmaktadır. AHS yöntemi kullanılarak bir problem modellenir, alternatifler göreceli önemlerine göre değerlendirilir, bilgi organize edilir ve değerlendirme hükümleri yapılır. İTÜ – Web GDSS Web de kullanılabilir olup küresel olarak erişime açıktır. Web teknolojilerinin avantajlarını kullanmaktadır. Web kaynaklarına bağlantı kurmak ve çeşitli platform özellikleri sisteme önemli özelliklerinden bazılarıdır. Karar destek sistemlerini kullanan grupların performansları son 20 yıldır çokça tartışılan bir konudur. Bu yüzden, grup karar destek sistemi kullanan takım üyelerinin tatmini gibi öznel değişkenlere biraz daha odaklanmaya ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Deneysel bir çalışma yapılarak İTÜ – Web GDSS’in kullanıcı tatmini rapor halinde hazırlanmıştır. Bu çalışmada, grup kararı alırken çeşitli kullanıcı tatmin öğelerine odaklanılmıştır: sistemden tatmin, süreçten tatmin, karardan tatmin, karar destek sisteminden tatmin.In this research, the architecture and detailed design of a Web-based GDSS, called İTÜ – Web GDSS are discussed to address the challenges of building a Web-based GDSS. İTÜ - Web GDSS, which uses Analytical Hierarchy Process model in decision process that is for multi-attribute decision making, is a Web-based Group Decision Support System. İTÜ - Web GDSS supports users to decide on their own specified goal. It also provides users to observe their own decision and group decision. İTÜ – Web GDSS is a software tool, which implements the AHP. It uses the AHP methodology to model any problem, evaluate relative desirability of alternatives, and organize information and judgments used in decision making. İTÜ – Web GDSS is deployed on the World Wide Web (WWW) and can be accessed globally. It takes advantages of WWW with wide ability, Web resource integration and cross-platform capabilities. Performance of groups using group decision support systems has been an issue debated over the last two decade. Yet, there is need for more focused on subjective variables such as the satisfaction of team members with the experience of using a GDSS. An empirical study is reported to assess the user satisfaction of İTÜ – Web GDSS in supporting distributed group. This research focuses on different types of user satisfaction in GDSS based group decision making: system satisfaction, process satisfaction, outcome, and GDSS satisfaction.Yüksek LisansM.Sc