Responsive Contingency Planning for Supply Chain Disruption Risk Mitigation

Contingent sourcing from a backup resource is an effective risk mitigation strategy under major disruptions. The production volumes and speeds of the backup resource are important protection design considerations, as they affect recovery. The objective of this dissertation is to show that cost-effective protection of existing supply networks from major disruptions result from planning appropriate volume and response speeds of a backup production facility prior to the disruptive event by considering operational aspects such as congestion that may occur at facilities. Contingency strategy are more responsive and disruption recovery periods can be shortened through such prior planning. The dissertation focuses on disruption risk arising from intelligent or pre-meditated attacks on supply facilities. An intelligent attacker has the capability to create worst case loss depending on the protection strategy of a given network. Since the attacker seeks the maximum loss and the designer tries to identify the protection scheme which minimizes this maximum loss, there exists an interdependence between attack and protection decisions. Ignoring this characteristic leads to suboptimal mitigation solutions under such disruptions. We therefore develop a mathematical model which utilizes a game theoretic framework of attack and defense involving nested optimization problems. The model is used to decide optimal selection of backup production volume and the response speeds, the facilities to build such capability within the available budget. The reallocation of demands from a disrupted facility to an undisrupted facility in a contingency strategy leads to congestion of the undisrupted facility, which may result in longer lead times and reduced throughput during disruption periods, thereby limiting the effectiveness of a contingency strategy. In the second part of the dissertation, we therefore analyze congestion effects in responsive contingency planning. The congestion cost function is modeled and integrated into the mathematical model of responsive contingency planning developed in the first part of the dissertation. The main contribution of this dissertation is that a decision tool has been developed to plan protection of an existing supply networks considering backup sourcing through gradual capacity acquisition. The solution methodology involving recursive search tree has been implemented which allows exploring protection solutions under a given budget of protection and multiple combinations of response speeds and production capacities of a backup facility. The results and analysis demonstrate the value of planning for responsive contingency in supply chains subject to risks of major disruptions and provide insights to aid managerial decision making

A review of network location theory and models

Cataloged from PDF version of article.In this study, we review the existing literature on network location problems. The study has a broad scope that includes problems featuring desirable and undesirable facilities, point facilities and extensive facilities, monopolistic and competitive markets, and single or multiple objectives. Deterministic and stochastic models as well as robust models are covered. Demand data aggregation is also discussed. More than 500 papers in this area are reviewed and critical issues, research directions, and problem extensions are emphasized.Erdoğan, Damla SelinM.S

Large scale geometric location problems.

"Revised October 1985."Includes bibliographical references (leaves 38-39).Supported by the Systems Theory and Operations Research Division of the National Science Foundation.by Mordecai Haimovich

Models and algorithms for trauma network design.

Trauma continues to be the leading cause of death and disability in the US for people aged 44 and under, making it a major public health problem. The geographical maldistribution of Trauma Centers (TCs), and the resulting higher access time to the nearest TC, has been shown to impact trauma patient safety and increase disability or mortality. State governments often design a trauma network to provide prompt and definitive care to their citizens. However, this process is mainly manual and experience-based and often leads to a suboptimal network in terms of patient safety and resource utilization. This dissertation fills important voids in this domain and adds much-needed realism to develop insights that trauma decision-makers can use to design their trauma network. In this dissertation, we develop multiple optimization-based trauma network design approaches focusing minimizing mistriages and, in some cases, ensuring equity in care among regions. To mimic trauma care in practice, several realistic features are considered in our approach, which include the consideration of: (i) both severely and non-severely injured trauma patients and associated mistriages, (ii) intermediate trauma centers (ITCs) along with major trauma centers (MTCs), (iii) three dominant criteria for destination determination, and (iv) mistriages in on-scene clinical assessment of injuries. Our first contribution (Chapter 2) proposes the Trauma Center Location Problem (TCLP) that determines the optimal number and location of major trauma centers (MTCs) to improve patient safety. The bi-objective optimization model for TCLP explicitly considers both types of patients (severe and non-severe) and associated mistriages (specifically, system-related under- and over-triages) as a surrogate for patient safety. These mistriages are estimated using our proposed notional tasking algorithm that attempts to mimic the EMS on-scene decision of destination hospital and transportation mode. We develop a heuristic based on Particle Swarm Optimization framework to efficiently solve realistic problem sizes. We illustrate our approach using 2012 data from the state of OH and show that an optimized network for the state could achieve 31.5% improvement in patient safety compared to the 2012 network with the addition of just one MTC; redistribution of the 21 MTCs in the 2012 network led to a 30.4% improvement. Our second contribution (Chapter 3) introduces a Nested Trauma Network Design Problem (NTNDP), which is a nested multi-level, multi-customer, multi-transportation, multi-criteria, capacitated model. The NTNDP model has a bi-objective of maximizing the weighted sum of equity and effectiveness in patient safety. The proposed model includes intermediate trauma centers (TCs) that have been established in many US states to serve as feeder centers to major TCs. The model also incorporates three criteria used by EMS for destination determination; i.e., patient/family choice, closest facility, and protocol. Our proposed ‘3-phase’ approach efficiently solves the resulting MIP model by first solving a relaxed version of the model, then a Constraint Satisfaction Problem, and a modified version of the original optimization problem (if needed). A comprehensive experimental study is conducted to determine the sensitivity of the solutions to various system parameters. A case study is presented using 2019 data from the state of OH that shows more than 30% improvement in the patient safety objective. In our third contribution (Chapter 4), we introduce Trauma Network Design Problem considering Assessment-related Mistriages (TNDP-AM), where we explicitly consider mistriages in on-scene assessment of patient injuries by the EMS. The TNDP-AM model determines the number and location of major trauma centers to maximize patient safety. We model assessment-related mistriages using the Bernoulli random variable and propose a Simheuristic approach that integrates Monte Carlo Simulation with a genetic algorithm (GA) to solve the problem efficiently. Our findings indicate that the trauma network is susceptible to assessment-related mistriages; specifically, higher mistriages in assessing severe patients may lead to a 799% decrease in patient safety and potential clustering of MTCs near high trauma incidence rates. There are several implications of our findings to practice. State trauma decision-makers can use our approaches to not only better manage limited financial resources, but also understand the impact of changes in operational parameters on network performance. The design of training programs for EMS providers to build standardization in decision-making is another advantage

Indirect impact of landslide hazards on transportation infrastructure

This thesis examines the indirect impact of natural hazards on infrastructure networks. It addresses several key themes and issues for hazard assessment, network modelling and risk assessment using the case study of landslides impacting the national road network in Scotland, United Kingdom. The research follows four distinct stages. First, a landslide susceptibility model is developed using a database of landslide occurrences, spatial data sets and logistic regression. The model outputs indicate the terrain characteristics that are associated with increased landslide potential, including critical slope angles and south westerly aspects associated with increased rates of solar irradiance and precipitation. The results identify the hillslopes and road segments that are most prone to disruption by landslides and these indicate that 40 % (1,700 / 4,300 km) of Scotland s motorways and arterial roads (i.e. strategic road network) are susceptible to landslides and this is above previous assessments. Second, a novel user-equilibrium traffic model is developed using UK Census origin-destination tables. The traffic model calculates the additional travel time and cost (i.e. indirect impacts) caused by network disruptions due to landslide events. The model is applied to calculate the impact of historic scenarios and for sets of plausible landslide events generated using the landslide susceptibility model. Impact assessments for historic scenarios are 29 to 83 % greater than previous, including £1.2 million of indirect impacts over 15 days of disruption at the A83 Rest and Be Thankful landslide October 2007. The model results indicate that the average impact of landslides is £64 k per day of disruption, and up to £130 k per day on the most critical road segments in Scotland. In addition to identifying critical road segments with both high impact and high susceptibility to landslides, the study indicates that the impact of landslides is concentrated away from urban centres to the central and north-west regions of Scotland that are heavily reliant on road and haulage-based industries such as seasonal tourism, agriculture and craft distilling. The third research element is the development of landslide initiation thresholds using weather radar data. The thresholds classify the rainfall conditions that are most commonly associated with landslide occurrence in Scotland, improving knowledge of the physical initiation processes and their likelihood. The thresholds are developed using a novel optimal-point threshold selection technique, high resolution radar and new rain variables that provide spatio-temporally normalised thresholds. The thresholds highlight the role of the 12-day antecedent hydrological condition of soils as a precursory factor in controlling the rain conditions that trigger landslides. The new results also support the observation that landslides occur more frequently in the UK during the early autumn and winter seasons when sequences or clustering of multiple cyclonic-storm systems is common in periods lasting 5 to 15 days. Fourth, the three previous elements are combined to evaluate the landslide hazard of the strategic road segments and a prototype risk assessment model is produced - a catastrophe model. The catastrophe model calculates the annual average loss and aggregated exceedance probability of losses due to the indirect impact of landslides in Scotland. Beyond application to cost-benefit analyses for landslide mitigation efforts, the catastrophe model framework is applicable to the study of other natural hazards (e.g. flooding), combinations of hazards, and other infrastructure networks