Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification of Seismic Damage Assessment

The damage-based structural seismic performance evaluations are widely used in seismic design and risk evaluation of civil facilities. Due to the large uncertainties rooted in this procedure, the application of damage quantification results is still a challenge for researchers and engineers. Uncertainties in damage assessment procedure are important consideration in performance evaluation and design of structures against earthquakes. Due to lack of knowledge or incomplete, inaccurate, unclear information in the modeling, simulation, and design, there are limitations in using only one framework (probability theory) to quantify uncertainty in a system because of the impreciseness of data or knowledge. In this work, a methodology based on the evidence theory is presented for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty of damage assessment procedure. The proposed methodology is applied to seismic damage assessment procedure while considering various sources of uncertainty emanating from experimental force-displacement data of reinforced concrete column. In order to alleviate the computational difficulties in the evidence theory-based uncertainty quantification analysis (UQ), a differential evolution-based computational strategy for efficient calculation of the propagated belief structure in a system with evidence theory is presented here. Finally, a seismic damage assessment example is investigated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method

Policy Analysis for Natural Hazards: Some Cautionary Lessons From Environmental Policy Analysis

How should agencies and legislatures evaluate possible policies to mitigate the impacts of earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and other natural hazards? In particular, should governmental bodies adopt the sorts of policy-analytic and risk assessment techniques that are widely used in the area of environmental hazards (chemical toxins and radiation)? Environmental hazards policy analysis regularly employs proxy tests, in particular tests of technological feasibility, rather than focusing on a policy\u27s impact on well-being. When human welfare does enter the analysis, particular aspects of well-being, such as health and safety, are often given priority over others. Individual risk tests and other features of environmental policy analysis sometimes make policy choice fairly insensitive to the size of the exposed population. Seemingly arbitrary numerical cutoffs, such as the one-in-one million incremental risk level, help structure policy evaluation. Risk assessment techniques are often deterministic rather than probabilistic, and in estimating point values often rely on conservative rather than central-tendency estimates. The Article argues that these sorts of features of environmental policy analysis may be justifiable, but only on institutional grounds-if they sufficiently reduce decision costs or bureaucratic error or shirking-and should not be reflexively adopted by natural hazards policymakers. Absent persuasive. institutional justification, natural hazards policy analysis should be welfare-focused, multidimensional, and sensitive to population size, and natural hazards risk assessment techniques should provide information suitable for policy-analytic techniques of this sort

Policy Analysis for Natural Hazards: Some Cautionary Lessons From Environmental Policy Analysis

How should agencies and legislatures evaluate possible policies to mitigate the impacts of earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and other natural hazards? In particular, should governmental bodies adopt the sorts of policy-analytic and risk assessment techniques that are widely used in the area of environmental hazards (chemical toxins and radiation)? Environmental hazards policy analysis regularly employs proxy tests, in particular tests of technological feasibility, rather than focusing on a policy\u27s impact on well-being. When human welfare does enter the analysis, particular aspects of well-being, such as health and safety, are often given priority over others. Individual risk tests and other features of environmental policy analysis sometimes make policy choice fairly insensitive to the size of the exposed population. Seemingly arbitrary numerical cutoffs, such as the one-in-one million incremental risk level, help structure policy evaluation. Risk assessment techniques are often deterministic rather than probabilistic, and in estimating point values often rely on conservative rather than central-tendency estimates. The Article argues that these sorts of features of environmental policy analysis may be justifiable, but only on institutional grounds-if they sufficiently reduce decision costs or bureaucratic error or shirking-and should not be reflexively adopted by natural hazards policymakers. Absent persuasive. institutional justification, natural hazards policy analysis should be welfare-focused, multidimensional, and sensitive to population size, and natural hazards risk assessment techniques should provide information suitable for policy-analytic techniques of this sort

Fuzzy logic-based attenuation relationships of strong motion earthquake records

Fuzzy logic techniques have been widely used in civil and earthquake engineering applications in the past four decades. However, no thorough research studies were conducted to use them for deriving attenuation relationships for peak ground accelerations (PGA). This paper is an attempt to fill this gap by employing a fuzzy approach with fuzzy sets for earthquake magnitude and distance from source with the objective of proposing new ground motion attenuation models. Recent earthquake records from USA and Taiwan with magnitudes 5 or greater were used; and consisted of horizontal peak ground acceleration recorded on three different site conditions: rock, soil and soft soil. The use of Fuzzy models to quantify ground motion records, which are typically characterized by a high level of uncertainty, leads to a rational analytical tool capable of predicting accurate results. Testing of the fuzzy model with an independent data set confirmed its accuracy in predicting PGA values

Decision Analysis for Management of Natural Hazards

Losses from natural hazards, including geophysical and hydrometeorological hazards, have been increasing worldwide. This review focuses on the process by which scientific evidence about natural hazards is applied to support decision making. Decision analysis typically involves estimating the probability of extreme events; assessing the potential impacts of those events from a variety of perspectives; and evaluating options to plan for, mitigate, or react to events. We consider issues that affect decisions made across a range of natural hazards, summarize decision methodologies, and provide examples of applications of decision analysis to the management of natural hazards. We conclude that there is potential for further exchange of ideas and experience between natural hazard research communities on decision analysis approaches. Broader application of decision methodologies to natural hazard management and evaluation of existing decision approaches can potentially lead to more efficient allocation of scarce resources and more efficient risk management

Future-proofing the state: managing risks, responding to crises and building resilience

Summary: This book focuses on the challenges facing governments and communities in preparing for and responding to major crises — especially the hard to predict yet unavoidable natural disasters ranging from earthquakes and tsunamis to floods and bushfires, as well as pandemics and global economic crises. Future-proofing the state and our societies involves decision-makers developing capacities to learn from recent ‘disaster’ experiences in order to be better placed to anticipate and prepare for foreseeable challenges. To undertake such futureproofing means taking long-term (and often recurring) problems seriously, managing risks appropriately, investing in preparedness, prevention and mitigation, reducing future vulnerability, building resilience in communities and institutions, and cultivating astute leadership. In the past we have often heard calls for ‘better future-proofing’ in the aftermath of disasters, but then neglected the imperatives of the message. Future-Proofing the State is organised around four key themes: how can we better predict and manage the future; how can we transform the short-term thinking shaped by our political cycles into more effective long-term planning; how can we build learning into our preparations for future policies and management; and how can we successfully build trust and community resilience to meet future challenges more adequately

Technology Support for Collaborative Preparation of Emergency Plans

Indexación: Scopus.Preparing a plan for reaction to a grave emergency is a significant first stage in disaster management. A group of experts can do such preparation. Best results are obtained with group members having diverse backgrounds and access to different relevant data. The output of this stage should be a plan as comprehensive as possible, taking into account various perspectives. The group can organize itself as a collaborative decision-making team with a process cycle involving modeling the process, defining the objectives of the decision outcome, gathering data, generating options and evaluating them according to the defined objectives. The meeting participants may have their own evidences concerning people’s location at the beginning of the emergency and assumptions about people’s reactions once it occurs. Geographical information is typically crucial for the plan, because the plan must be based on the location of the safe areas, the distances to move people, the connecting roads or other evacuation links, the ease of movement of the rescue personnel, and other geography-based considerations. The paper deals with this scenario and it introduces a computer tool intended to support the experts to prepare the plan by incorporating the various viewpoints and data. The group participants should be able to generate, visualize and compare the outcomes of their contributions. The proposal is complemented with an example of use: it is a real case simulation in the event of a tsunami following an earthquake at a certain urban location. © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/19/22/504

Competing Conceptions of Risk

Recent literature is said to reflect growing acknowledgment of multiple conceptions of risk but often to obscure an important distinction. Building on work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette, the authors explore the potential for debate over competing philosophical conceptions of risk