Tools for Assessing Climate Impacts on Fish and Wildlife

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we provide a broad overview of the types of models available for forecasting the effects of climate change on key processes that affect fish and wildlife habitat (hydrology, fire, and vegetation), as well as on individual species distributions and populations. We present a framework for how climate-impacts modeling can be used to address management concerns, providing examples of model-based assessments of climate impacts on salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest, fire regimes in the boreal region of Canada, prairies and savannas in the Willamette Valley-Puget Sound Trough-Georgia Basin ecoregion, and marten Martes americana populations in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. We also highlight some key limitations of these models and discuss how such limitations should be managed. We conclude with a general discussion of how these models can be integrated into fish and wildlife management

Forest landscape restoration in the drylands of Latin America

Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) involves the ecological restoration of degraded forest landscapes, with the aim of benefiting both biodiversity and human well-being. We first identify four fundamental principles of FLR, based on previous definitions. We then critically evaluate the application of these principles in practice, based on the experience gained during an international, collaborative research project conducted in six dry forest landscapes of Latin America. Research highlighted the potential for FLR; tree species of high socioeconomic value were identified in all study areas, and strong dependence of local communities on forest resources was widely encountered, particularly for fuelwood. We demonstrated that FLR can be achieved through both passive and active restoration approaches, and can be cost-effective if the increased provision of ecosystem services is taken into account. These results therefore highlight the potential for FLR, and the positive contribution that it could make to sustainable development. However, we also encountered a number of challenges to FLR implementation, including the difficulty of achieving strong engagement in FLR activities among local stakeholders, lack of capacity for community-led initiatives, and the lack of an appropriate institutional and regulatory environment to support restoration activities. Successful implementation of FLR will require new collaborative alliances among stakeholders, empowerment and capacity building of local communities to enable them to fully engage with restoration activities, and an enabling public policy context to enable local people to be active participants in the decision making process. © 2012 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance

Moving Beyond Static Species Distribution Models in Support of Conservation Biogeography

Aim: To demonstrate that multi-modeling methods have effectively been used to combine static species distribution models (SDM), predicting the geographical pattern of suitable habitat, with dynamics landscape and population models in order to forecast the impacts of environmental change on species, an important goal of conservation biogeography. Methods: Three approaches were considered: a) incorporating models of species migration in order to understand the ability of a species to occupy suitable habitat in new locations; b) linking models of landscape disturbance and succession to models of habitat suitability; and, c) fully linking models of habitat suitability, habitat dynamics and spatially-explicit population dynamics. Results: Linking species-environment relationships, landscape dynamics and population dynamics in a multi-modeling framework allows the combined impacts of climate change (affecting species distribution and vital rates) and land cover dynamics (land use change, altered disturbance regimes) on species be predicted. This approach is only feasible if the life history parameters and habitat requirements of the species are well understood. Main Conclusions: Forecasts of the impacts of global change on species have been improved by considering multiple causes. A range of methods are available to address the interactions of changing habitat suitability, habitat dynamics and population response that vary in their complexity, realism and data requirements.

Identifying hotspots and management of critical ecosystem services in rapidly urbanizing Yangtze River Delta Region, China

Rapid urbanization has altered many ecosystems, causing a decline in many ecosystem services, generating serious ecological crisis. To cope with these challenges, we presented a comprehensive framework comprising five core steps for identifying and managing hotspots of critical ecosystem services in a rapid urbanizing region. This framework was applied in the case study of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region. The study showed that there was large spatial heterogeneity in the hotspots of ecosystem services in the region, hotspots of supporting services and regulating services aggregately distributing in the southwest mountainous areas while hotspots of provisioning services mainly in the northeast plain, and hotspots of cultural services widespread in the waterbodies and southwest mountainous areas. The regionalization of the critical ecosystem services was made through the hotspot analysis. This study provided valuable information for environmental planning and management in a rapid urbanizing region and helped improve China's ecological redlines policy at regional scale

Development of scenarios for land cover, population density, impervious cover, and conservation in New Hampshire, 2010–2100

Future changes in ecosystem services will depend heavily on changes in land cover and land use, which, in turn, are shaped by human activities. Given the challenges of predicting long-term changes in human behaviors and activities, scenarios provide a framework for simulating the long-term consequences of land-cover change on ecosystem function. As input for process-based models of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem function, we developed scenarios for land cover, population density, and impervious cover for the state of New Hampshire for 2020–2100. Key drivers of change were identified through information gathered from six sources: historical trends, existing plans relating to New Hampshire’s land-cover future, surveys, existing population scenarios, key informant interviews with diverse stakeholders, and input from subject-matter experts. Scenarios were developed in parallel with information gathering, with details added iteratively as new questions emerged. The final scenarios span a continuum from spatially dispersed development with a low value placed on ecosystem services (Backyard Amenities) to concentrated development with a high value placed on ecosystem services (the Community Amenities family). The Community family includes two population scenarios (Large Community and Small Community), to be combined with two scenarios for land cover (Protection of Wildlands and Promotion of Local Food), producing combinations that bring the total number of scenarios to six. Between Backyard Amenities and Community Amenities is a scenario based on linear extrapolations of current trends (Linear Trends). Custom models were used to simulate decadal change in land cover, population density, and impervious cover. We present raster maps and proportion of impervious cover for HUC10 watersheds under each scenario and discuss the trade-offs of our translation and modeling approach within the context of contemporary scenario projects

The Role of Landscape Connectivity in Planning and Implementing Conservation and Restoration Priorities. Issues in Ecology

Landscape connectivity, the extent to which a landscape facilitates the movements of organisms and their genes, faces critical threats from both fragmentation and habitat loss. Many conservation efforts focus on protecting and enhancing connectivity to offset the impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity conservation, and to increase the resilience of reserve networks to potential threats associated with climate change. Loss of connectivity can reduce the size and quality of available habitat, impede and disrupt movement (including dispersal) to new habitats, and affect seasonal migration patterns. These changes can lead, in turn, to detrimental effects for populations and species, including decreased carrying capacity, population declines, loss of genetic variation, and ultimately species extinction. Measuring and mapping connectivity is facilitated by a growing number of quantitative approaches that can integrate large amounts of information about organisms’ life histories, habitat quality, and other features essential to evaluating connectivity for a given population or species. However, identifying effective approaches for maintaining and restoring connectivity poses several challenges, and our understanding of how connectivity should be designed to mitigate the impacts of climate change is, as yet, in its infancy. Scientists and managers must confront and overcome several challenges inherent in evaluating and planning for connectivity, including: •characterizing the biology of focal species; •understanding the strengths and the limitations of the models used to evaluate connectivity; •considering spatial and temporal extent in connectivity planning; •using caution in extrapolating results outside of observed conditions; •considering non-linear relationships that can complicate assumed or expected ecological responses; •accounting and planning for anthropogenic change in the landscape; •using well-defined goals and objectives to drive the selection of methods used for evaluating and planning for connectivity; •and communicating to the general public in clear and meaningful language the importance of connectivity to improve awareness and strengthen policies for ensuring conservation. Several aspects of connectivity science deserve additional attention in order to improve the effectiveness of design and implementation. Research on species persistence, behavioral ecology, and community structure is needed to reduce the uncertainty associated with connectivity models. Evaluating and testing connectivity responses to climate change will be critical to achieving conservation goals in the face of the rapid changes that will confront many communities and ecosystems. All of these potential areas of advancement will fall short of conservation goals if we do not effectively incorporate human activities into connectivity planning. While this Issue identifies substantial uncertainties in mapping connectivity and evaluating resilience to climate change, it is also clear that integrating human and natural landscape conservation planning to enhance habitat connectivity is essential for biodiversity conservation

A Scale-Explicit Framework for Conceptualizing the Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Land Use Changes

Demand for locally-produced food is growing in areas outside traditionally dominant agricultural regions due to concerns over food safety, quality, and sovereignty; rural livelihoods; and environmental integrity. Strategies for meeting this demand rely upon agricultural land use change, in various forms of either intensification or extensification (converting non-agricultural land, including native landforms, to agricultural use). The nature and extent of the impacts of these changes on non-food-provisioning ecosystem services are determined by a complex suite of scale-dependent interactions among farming practices, site-specific characteristics, and the ecosystem services under consideration. Ecosystem modeling strategies which honor such complexity are often impenetrable by non-experts, resulting in a prevalent conceptual gap between ecosystem sciences and the field of sustainable agriculture. Referencing heavily forested New England as an example, we present a conceptual framework designed to synthesize and convey understanding of the scale- and landscape-dependent nature of the relationship between agriculture and various ecosystem services. By accounting for the total impact of multiple disturbances across a landscape while considering the effects of scale, the framework is intended to stimulate and support the collaborative efforts of land managers, scientists, citizen stakeholders, and policy makers as they address the challenges of expanding local agriculture