Model Configuration And Data Management In The Short-Term Water Information Forecasting Tools

The Short-term Water Information and Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) is a suite of tools for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting, consisting of a collection of hydrologic model components and utilities. Catchments are modeled using conceptual subareas and a node-link structure for channel routing. The tools comprise modules for calibration, model state updating, output error correction, ensemble runs and data assimilation. Given the combinatorial nature of the modelling experiments and the sub-daily time steps typically used for simulations, the volume of model configurations and time series data is substantial and its management is not trivial. SWIFT is currently used mostly for research purposes but has also been used operationally, with intersecting but significantly different requirements. Early versions of SWIFT used mostly ad-hoc text files handled via Fortran code, with limited use of netCDF for time series data. The configuration and data handling modules have since been redesigned. The model configuration now follows a design where the data model is decoupled from the on-disk persistence mechanism. For research purposes the preferred on-disk format is JSON, to leverage numerous software libraries in a variety of languages, while retaining the legacy option of custom tab-separated text formats when it is a preferred access arrangement for the researcher. By decoupling data model and data persistence, it is much easier to interchangeably use for instance relational databases to provide stricter provenance and audit trail capabilities in an operational flood forecasting context. For the time series data, given the volume and required throughput, text based formats are usually inadequate. A schema derived from CF conventions has been designed to efficiently handle time series for SWIFT

Global Epidemiologic Characteristics of Sexually Transmitted Infections Among Individuals Using Preexposure Prophylaxis for the Prevention of HIV Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: Despite a global increase in sexually transmitted infections (STIs), there is limited focus and investment in STI management within HIV programs, in which risks for STIs are likely to be elevated. Objective: To estimate the prevalence of STIs at initiation of HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP; emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate) and the incidence of STIs during PrEP use. Data Sources: Nine databases were searched up to November 20, 2018, without language restrictions. The implementers of PrEP were also approached for additional unpublished data. Study Selection: Studies reporting STI prevalence and/or incidence among PrEP users were included. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Data were extracted independently by at least 2 reviewers. The methodological quality of studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical assessment tool for prevalence and incidence studies. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed. Main Outcomes and Measures: Pooled STI prevalence (ie, within 3 months of PrEP initiation) and STI incidence (ie, during PrEP use, after 3 months). Results: Of the 3325 articles identified, 88 were included (71 published and 17 unpublished). Data came from 26 countries; 62 studies (70%) were from high-income countries, and 58 studies (66%) were from programs only for men who have sex with men. In studies reporting a composite outcome of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and early syphilis, the pooled prevalence was 23.9% (95% CI, 18.6%-29.6%) before starting PrEP. The prevalence of the STI pathogen by anatomical site showed that prevalence was highest in the anorectum (chlamydia, 8.5% [95% CI, 6.3%-11.0%]; gonorrhea, 9.3% [95% CI, 4.7%-15.2%]) compared with genital sites (chlamydia, 4.0% [95% CI, 2.0%-6.6%]; gonorrhea, 2.1% [95% CI, 0.9%-3.7%]) and oropharyngeal sites (chlamydia, 2.4% [95% CI, 0.9%-4.5%]; gonorrhea, 4.9% [95% CI, 1.9%-9.1%]). The pooled incidence of studies reporting the composite outcome of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and early syphilis was 72.2 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 60.5-86.2 per 100 person-years). Conclusions and Relevance: Given the high burden of STIs among individuals initiating PrEP as well as persistent users of PrEP, this study highlights the need for active integration of HIV and STI services for an at-risk and underserved population

Increasing access to integrated ESKD care as part of Universal Health Coverage

The global nephrology community recognizes the need for a cohesive strategy to address the growing problem of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). In March 2018, the International Society of Nephrology hosted a summit on integrated ESKD care, including 92 individuals from around the globe with diverse expertise and professional backgrounds. The attendees were from 41 countries, including 16 participants from 11 low- and lower-middle–income countries. The purpose was to develop a strategic plan to improve worldwide access to integrated ESKD care, by identifying and prioritizing key activities across 8 themes: (i) estimates of ESKD burden and treatment coverage, (ii) advocacy, (iii) education and training/workforce, (iv) financing/funding models, (v) ethics, (vi) dialysis, (vii) transplantation, and (viii) conservative care. Action plans with prioritized lists of goals, activities, and key deliverables, and an overarching performance framework were developed for each theme. Examples of these key deliverables include improved data availability, integration of core registry measures and analysis to inform development of health care policy; a framework for advocacy; improved and continued stakeholder engagement; improved workforce training; equitable, efficient, and cost-effective funding models; greater understanding and greater application of ethical principles in practice and policy; definition and application of standards for safe and sustainable dialysis treatment and a set of measurable quality parameters; and integration of dialysis, transplantation, and comprehensive conservative care as ESKD treatment options within the context of overall health priorities. Intended users of the action plans include clinicians, patients and their families, scientists, industry partners, government decision makers, and advocacy organizations. Implementation of this integrated and comprehensive plan is intended to improve quality and access to care and thereby reduce serious health-related suffering of adults and children affected by ESKD worldwide

Using social connection information to improve opinion mining: Identifying negative sentiment about HPV vaccines on Twitter

The manner in which people preferentially interact with others like themselves suggests that information about social connections may be useful in the surveillance of opinions for public health purposes. We examined if social connection information from tweets about human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines could be used to train classifiers that identify antivaccine opinions. From 42,533 tweets posted between October 2013 and March 2014, 2,098 were sampled at random and two investigators independently identified anti-vaccine opinions. Machine learning methods were used to train classifiers using the first three months of data, including content (8,261 text fragments) and social connections (10,758 relationships). Connection-based classifiers performed similarly to content-based classifiers on the first three months of training data, and performed more consistently than content-based classifiers on test data from the subsequent three months. The most accurate classifier achieved an accuracy of 88.6% on the test data set, and used only social connection features. Information about how people are connected, rather than what they write, may be useful for improving public health surveillance methods on Twitter

Educational Technology and Related Education Conferences for June to December 2015

The 33rd edition of the conference list covers selected events that primarily focus on the use of technology in educational settings and on teaching, learning, and educational administration. Only listings until December 2015 are complete as dates, locations, or Internet addresses (URLs) were not available for a number of events held from January 2016 onward. In order to protect the privacy of individuals, only URLs are used in the listing as this enables readers of the list to obtain event information without submitting their e-mail addresses to anyone. A significant challenge during the assembly of this list is incomplete or conflicting information on websites and the lack of a link between conference websites from one year to the next

Jacques Philippe d’Orville’s Grand Tour: a European trip in search of libraries, manuscripts, and ancient books

For over two years, the Dutch bibliophile and classical scholar Jacques Philippe d’Or- ville (1696-1751) travelled through Europe, visiting not only the greatest libraries of his age, but also private libraries and those located in monasteries and churches. During his trip he wrote a diary that it is today preserved in the Bodleian library in Oxford. The purpose of this article is to describe his travels and to identify the manuscripts and printed editions mentioned in his diary: a task that unveils the variety of interests he had and helps towards understanding his research method

The potential benefit of SMART load limiters in European frontal impacts

In Europe, the deployment characteristics of frontal crash restraints are generally optimised to best protect an average young male, since a 50th percentile male dummy is used in a stylised frontal impact scenario. These single point restraint systems may not provide similar levels of effectiveness when the crash scenarios vary with respect to the regulatory and consumer crash test procedures. Previous research has demonstrated that varying restraint deployment characteristics according to occupant and crash variation can provide further injury reduction in frontal impacts. This thesis reports the investigation conducted to assess the potential real world injury reduction benefit of smart restraint systems in frontal impacts. The intelligent capability of the restraint was achieved by varying the seat belt load limiter (SBL) threshold, according to the frontal crash scenario. Real world accident data (CCIS) were analysed to identify the target population of vehicle occupants and frontal impact scenarios where employing smart load limiters could be most beneficial, particularly in reducing chest injury risk. From the accident sample, the chest was the most frequently injured body region at an AIS 2+ level in frontal impacts (7% of front seat occupants). The proportion of older vehicle front seat occupants (>64 years old) with AIS 2+ injury was also greater than the proportion of younger occupants. Additionally, older occupants were more likely to sustain seat belt induced serious chest injury in low and moderate speed frontal crashes. Numerical simulations using MADYMO software were conducted to examine the effect of varying the load limiter thresholds on occupant kinematics and injury outcome in frontal impacts. Generic baseline driver and front passenger numerical models were developed using a 50th percentile dummy and were adapted to accommodate a 5th and 95th percentile dummy. Simulations were performed where the load limiter threshold was varied in five frontal impact scenarios which were selected to cover as wide a range of real frontal crash conditions as possible. From the simulation results, it was found that for both the 50th and 95th percentile dummy in front seating positions (driver and passenger), the low SBL provided the best chest injury protection, without increasing the risk to other body regions. In severe impacts, the low SBL allowed the dummy to move further towards the front facia, thus increasing the chance of occupant hard contact with the vehicle interiors. The Smart load limiters predicted no injury risk reduction for the 5th percentile drivers, who are shorter and tend to sit closer to the steering wheel. The potential injury reduction of the smart load limiters was quantified by applying the estimated injury risk reduction from the simulation to the real world accident data sample. Thoracic injury predictions from the simulations were converted into injury probability values using AIS 2+ age dependent thoracic risk curves which were developed and validated based on a methodology proposed by Laituri et al. (2005). Real world benefit was quantified using the predicted relative AIS 2+ risk reduction and assuming an appropriate adaptive system was fitted to all the cars in the real world sample. When applying the AIS 2+ risk reduction findings to the weighted accident data sample, the risk of sustaining an AIS 2+ seat belt injury reduced from 1.3% to 0.9% for younger front seat occupants, 7.6% to 5.0% for middle aged front seat occupants and 13.1% to 8.6% for the older front seat occupants. The research findings clearly demonstrate a chest injury reduction benefit across all age groups when the load limiter characteristics are varied. It suggests that employing a smart load limiter in a vehicle would not only benefit older occupants but also middle aged and young occupants. The benefit does appear to be most pronounced for older occupants, since the older population is more vulnerable to chest injury. As the older population of car users is rapidly rising, the benefits of smarter systems can only increase in the future