Operational solar forecasting for the real-time market

Despite the significant progress made in solar forecasting over the last decade, most of the proposed models cannot be readily used by independent system operators (ISOs). This article proposes an operational solar forecasting algorithm that is closely aligned with the real-time market (RTM) forecasting requirements of the California ISO (CAISO). The algorithm first uses the North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast system to generate hourly forecasts for a 5-h period that are issued 12 h before the actual operating hour, satisfying the lead-time requirement. Subsequently, the world's fastest similarity search algorithm is adopted to downscale the hourly forecasts generated by NAM to a 15-min resolution, satisfying the forecast-resolution requirement. The 5-h-ahead forecasts are repeated every hour, following the actual rolling update rate of CAISO. Both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated using the proposed algorithm are empirically evaluated over a period of 2 years at 7 locations in 5 climate zones

A non-linear Granger-causality framework to investigate climate-vegetation dynamics

Satellite Earth observation has led to the creation of global climate data records of many important environmental and climatic variables. These come in the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions. Data of this kind provide new means to further unravel the influence of climate on vegetation dynamics. However, as advocated in this article, commonly used statistical methods are often too simplistic to represent complex climate-vegetation relationships due to linearity assumptions. Therefore, as an extension of linear Granger-causality analysis, we present a novel non-linear framework consisting of several components, such as data collection from various databases, time series decomposition techniques, feature construction methods, and predictive modelling by means of random forests. Experimental results on global data sets indicate that, with this framework, it is possible to detect non-linear patterns that are much less visible with traditional Granger-causality methods. In addition, we discuss extensive experimental results that highlight the importance of considering non-linear aspects of climate-vegetation dynamics

Hybrid SGP4 orbit propagator

Two-Line Elements (TLEs) continue to be the sole public source of orbiter observations. The accuracy of TLE propagations through the Simplified General Perturbations-4 (SGP4) software decreases dramatically as the propagation horizon increases, and thus the period of validity of TLEs is very limited. As a result, TLEs are gradually becoming insufficient for the growing demands of Space Situational Awareness (SSA). We propose a technique, based on the hybrid propagation methodology, aimed at extending TLE validity with minimal changes to the current TLE-SGP4 system in a non-intrusive way. It requires that the institution in possession of the osculating elements distributes hybrid TLEs, HTLEs, which encapsulate the standard TLE and the model of its propagation error. The validity extension can be accomplished when the end user processes HTLEs through the hybrid SGP4 propagator, HSGP4, which comprises the standard SGP4 and an error corrector.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figure

Detecting structural breaks in seasonal time series by regularized optimization

Real-world systems are often complex, dynamic, and nonlinear. Understanding the dynamics of a system from its observed time series is key to the prediction and control of the system's behavior. While most existing techniques tacitly assume some form of stationarity or continuity, abrupt changes, which are often due to external disturbances or sudden changes in the intrinsic dynamics, are common in time series. Structural breaks, which are time points at which the statistical patterns of a time series change, pose considerable challenges to data analysis. Without identification of such break points, the same dynamic rule would be applied to the whole period of observation, whereas false identification of structural breaks may lead to overfitting. In this paper, we cast the problem of decomposing a time series into its trend and seasonal components as an optimization problem. This problem is ill-posed due to the arbitrariness in the number of parameters. To overcome this difficulty, we propose the addition of a penalty function (i.e., a regularization term) that accounts for the number of parameters. Our approach simultaneously identifies seasonality and trend without the need of iterations, and allows the reliable detection of structural breaks. The method is applied to recorded data on fish populations and sea surface temperature, where it detects structural breaks that would have been neglected otherwise. This suggests that our method can lead to a general approach for the monitoring, prediction, and prevention of structural changes in real systems.Comment: Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures (Edited by George Deodatis, Bruce R. Ellingwood and Dan M. Frangopol), CRC Press 2014, Pages 3621-362

Forecasting of global horizontal irradiance by exponential smoothing, using decompositions

Time series methods are frequently used in solar irradiance forecasting when two dimensional cloud information provided by satellite or sky camera is unavailable. ETS (exponential smoothing) has received extensive attention in the recent years since the invention of its state space formulation. In this work, we combine these models with knowledge based heuristic time series decomposition methods to improve the forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.<p></p> In particular, three decomposition methods are proposed. The first method implements an additive seasonal-trend decomposition as a preprocessing technique prior to ETS. This can reduce the state space thus improve the computational efficiency. The second method decomposes the GHI (global horizontal irradiance) time series into a direct component and a diffuse component. These two components are used as forecasting model inputs separately; and their corresponding results are recombined via the closure equation to obtain the GHI forecasts. In the third method, the time series of the cloud cover index is considered. ETS is applied to the cloud cover time series to obtain the cloud cover forecast thus the forecast GHI through polynomial regressions. The results show that the third method performs the best among three methods and all proposed methods outperform the persistence models.<p></p&gt

Validation of remotely-sensed evapotranspiration and NDWI using ground measurements at Riverlands, South Africa

Quantification of the water cycle components is key to managing water resources. Remote sensing techniques and products have recently been developed for the estimation of water balance variables. The objective of this study was to test the reliability of LandSAF (Land Surface Analyses Satellite Applications Facility) evapotranspiration (ET) and SPOT-Vegetation Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI) by comparison with ground-based measurements. Evapotranspiration (both daily and 30 min) was successfully estimated with LandSAF products in a flat area dominated by fynbos vegetation (Riverlands, Western Cape) that was representative of the satellite image pixel at 3 km resolution. Correlation coefficients were 0.85 and 0.91 and linear regressions produced R2 of 0.72 and 0.75 for 30 min and daily ET, respectively. Ground-measurements of soil water content taken with capacitance sensors at 3 depths were related to NDWI obtained from 10-daily maximum value composites of SPOT-Vegetation images at a resolution of 1 km. Multiple regression models showed that NDWI relates well to soil water content after accounting for precipitation (adjusted R2 were 0.71, 0.59 and 0.54 for 10, 40 and 80 cm soil depth, respectively). Changes in NDWI trends in different land covers were detected in 14-year time series using the breaks for additive seasonal and trend (BFAST) methodology. Appropriate usage, awareness of limitations and correct interpretation of remote sensing data can facilitate water management and planning operations.Fil: Jovanovic, Nebo. Natural Resources and Environment; SudáfricaFil: García, César Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Católica de Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Bugan, Richard DH. Natural Resources and Environment; SudáfricaFil: Teich, Ingrid. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias. Departamento de Desarrollo Rural. Area de Estadística y Biometría; ArgentinaFil: Garcia Rodriguez, Carlos Marcelo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentin