Probabilistic Approach to Pattern Selection

The problem of pattern selection arises when the evolution equations have many solutions, whereas observed patterns constitute a much more restricted set. An approach is advanced for treating the problem of pattern selection by defining the probability distribution of patterns. Then the most probable pattern naturally corresponds to the largest probability weight. This approach provides the ordering principle for the multiplicity of solutions explaining why some of them are more preferable than other. The approach is applied to solving the problem of turbulent photon filamentation in resonant media.Comment: LaTex, 22 page

A probabilistic approach to Zhang's sandpile model

The current literature on sandpile models mainly deals with the abelian sandpile model (ASM) and its variants. We treat a less known - but equally interesting - model, namely Zhang's sandpile. This model differs in two aspects from the ASM. First, additions are not discrete, but random amounts with a uniform distribution on an interval $[a,b]$. Second, if a site topples - which happens if the amount at that site is larger than a threshold value $E_c$ (which is a model parameter), then it divides its entire content in equal amounts among its neighbors. Zhang conjectured that in the infinite volume limit, this model tends to behave like the ASM in the sense that the stationary measure for the system in large volumes tends to be peaked narrowly around a finite set. This belief is supported by simulations, but so far not by analytical investigations. We study the stationary distribution of this model in one dimension, for several values of $a$ and $b$. When there is only one site, exact computations are possible. Our main result concerns the limit as the number of sites tends to infinity, in the one-dimensional case. We find that the stationary distribution, in the case $a \geq E_c/2$, indeed tends to that of the ASM (up to a scaling factor), in agreement with Zhang's conjecture. For the case $a=0$, $b=1$ we provide strong evidence that the stationary expectation tends to $\sqrt{1/2}$.Comment: 47 pages, 3 figure

A probabilistic approach to composite micromechanics

Probabilistic composite micromechanics methods are developed that simulate expected uncertainties in unidirectional fiber composite properties. These methods are in the form of computational procedures using Monte Carlo simulation. A graphite/epoxy unidirectional composite (ply) is studied to demonstrate fiber composite material properties at the micro level. Regression results are presented to show the relative correlation between predicted and response variables in the study