Prediction using production or production engaging prediction?

Prominent theories of predictive language processing assume that language production processes are used to anticipate upcoming linguistic input during comprehension (Dell & Chang, 2014; Pickering & Garrod, 2013). Here, we explore the converse case: Does a task set including production in addition to comprehension encourage prediction, compared to a task only including comprehension? To test this hypothesis, we conducted a cross-modal naming experiment (Experiment 1) including an object naming task and a self-paced reading experiment (Experiment 2) that did not include overt production. We used the same predictable (N = 40) and non-predictable (N = 40) sentences in both experiments. The sentences consisted of a fixed agent, a transitive verb and a predictable or non-predictable target word (The man drinks a beer vs. The man buys a beer). Most of the empirical work on prediction used sentences in which the target words were highly predictable (often with a mean cloze probability > .8) and thus it is little surprising that participants engaged in predictive language processing very easily. In the current sentences, the mean cloze probability in the predictable sentences was .39 (ranging from .06 to .8; zero in the non-predictable sentences). If comprehenders are more likely to engage in predictive processing when the task set involves production, we should observe more pronounced effects of prediction in Experiment 1 as compared to Experiment 2. If production does not enhance prediction, we should observe similar effects of prediction in both experiments. In Experiment 1, participants (N = 54) listened to recordings of the sentences which ended right before the spoken target word. Coinciding with the end of the playback, a picture of the target word was shown which the participants were asked to name as fast as possible. Analyses of their naming latencies revealed a statistically significant naming advantage of 106 ms on predictable over non-predictable trials. Moreover, we found that the objects’ naming advantage was predicted by the target words’ cloze probability in the sentences (r = .411, p = .016). In Experiment 2, the same sentences were used in a self-paced reading experiment. To allow for testing of potential spill-over effects, we added a neutral prepositional phrase (buys a beer from the bar keeper/drinks a beer from the shop) to each sentence. Participants (N = 54) read the sentences word-by-word, advancing by pushing the space bar. On 30% of the trials, comprehension questions were used to keep up participants' focus on comprehending the sentences. Analyses of participants’ target and post-target reading times revealed numerical advantages of 6 ms and 20 ms, respectively, in the predictable as compared to the non-predictable condition. However, in both cases, this difference was not statistically reliable (t = .757, t = 1.43) and the significant positive correlation between an item’s naming advantage and its cloze probability as seen in Experiment 1 was absent (r = .037, p = .822). Importantly, the analysis of participants' responses to the comprehension questions, showed that they understood the sentences (mean accuracy = 93%). To conclude, although both experiments used the same sentences, we observed effects of prediction only when the task included production. In Experiment 2, no evidence for anticipation was found although participants clearly understood the sentences and the method has previously been shown to be sensitive to measure prediction effects (Van Berkum et al., 2005). Our results fit with a recent study by Gollan et al. (2011) who found only a small processing advantage of predictive over non-predictive sentences in reading (using highly predictable sentences with a cloze probability > . 87) but a strong prediction effect when participants read the same sentences and carried out an additional object naming task (see also Griffin & Bock, 1998). Taken together, the studies suggest that the comprehenders' task set exerts a powerful influence on the likelihood and magnitude of predictive language processing. When the task set involves language production, as is often the case in natural conversation, comprehenders might engage in prediction to a stronger degree than in pure comprehension tasks. Being able to predict words another person is about to say might optimize the comprehension process and enable smooth turn-taking

New in-sample prediction errors in time series with applications

^aThis article introduces two new types of prediction errors in time series: the filtered prediction errors and the deletion prediction errors. These two prediction errors are obtained in the same sample used for estimation, but in such a way that they share some common properties with out of sample prediction errors. It is proved that the filtered prediction errors are uncorrelated, up to terms of magnitude order O(T^-2), with the in sample innovations, a property that share with the out-of-sample prediction errors. On the other hand, deletion prediction errors assume that the values to be predicted are unobserved, a property that they also share with out-of-sample prediction errors. It is shown that these prediction errors can be computed with parameters estimated by assuming innovative or additive outliers, respectively, at the points to be predicted. Then the prediction errors are obtained by running the procedure for all the points in the sample of data. Two applications of these new prediction errors are presented. The first is the estimation and comparison of the prediction mean squared errors of competing predictors. The second is the determination of the order of an ARMA model. In the two applications the proposed filtered prediction errors have some advantages over alternative existing methods.

Social Capital Capacity as Prediction of Dengue Control

The program of elimination of mosquito breeding places is still low since there is no public participation effort in vector control. Social capital is key factor for sustaining any health programs implemented. This study was aimed to analyze the effectiveness of social capital impact on participation and environmental based dengue prevention programs. Study design was cross sectional. Population study was community around Bantul district. Sample was collected as 600 house hold devide on two categories endemic and potential areas. Data was collected with interviews and observation. Data were analyzed with person corelation, confirmatory analyzed and path way analyzed. There were significantly relationships between social capital and family perseption, disease perception, individual perception, environment perception and larva density p < 0,05. Relationship between perception of counselling and family perception, dengue programs and family perception p < 0,05, and the strongest factor is environment participation (r=0.296). Based on the path analysis for potential areas, social capital was effectively for increased larvae free index through family perception. Theoretically, model for social capital is more efficient in increasing the number of free larvae index through community environment participation. In potential areas, social capital is concluded to be more effectively increase of larva index through participation of individuals. In endemic areas, that dengue programs increase larva index more effectively, compared with social capital does. Strengthening of social capital is important because it effectively the coverage of larva index through environment participation both areas

New error bounds for Solomonoff prediction

Solomonoff sequence prediction is a scheme to predict digits of binary strings without knowing the underlying probability distribution. We call a prediction scheme informed when it knows the true probability distribution of the sequence. Several new relations between universal Solomonoff sequence prediction and informed prediction and general probabilistic prediction schemes will be proved. Among others, they show that the number of errors in Solomonoff prediction is finite for computable distributions, if finite in the informed case. Deterministic variants will also be studied. The most interesting result is that the deterministic variant of Solomonoff prediction is optimal compared to any other probabilistic or deterministic prediction scheme apart from additive square root corrections only. This makes it well suited even for difficult prediction problems, where it does not suffice when the number of errors is minimal to within some factor greater than one. Solomonoff's original bound and the ones presented here complement each other in a useful way

miRDB: An online database for prediction of functional microRNA targets

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small noncoding RNAs that act as master regulators in many biological processes. miRNAs function mainly by downregulating the expression of their gene targets. Thus, accurate prediction of miRNA targets is critical for characterization of miRNA functions. To this end, we have developed an online database, miRDB, for miRNA target prediction and functional annotations. Recently, we have performed major updates for miRDB. Specifically, by employing an improved algorithm for miRNA target prediction, we now present updated transcriptome-wide target prediction data in miRDB, including 3.5 million predicted targets regulated by 7000 miRNAs in five species. Further, we have implemented the new prediction algorithm into a web server, allowing custom target prediction with user-provided sequences. Another new database feature is the prediction of cell-specific miRNA targets. miRDB now hosts the expression profiles of over 1000 cell lines and presents target prediction data that are tailored for specific cell models. At last, a new web query interface has been added to miRDB for prediction of miRNA functions by integrative analysis of target prediction and Gene Ontology data. All data in miRDB are freely accessible at http://mirdb.org

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty

Fast intra prediction in the transform domain

In this paper, we present a fast intra prediction method based on separating the transformed coefficients. The prediction block can be obtained from the transformed and quantized neighboring block generating minimum distortion for each DC and AC coefficients independently. Two prediction methods are proposed, one is full block search prediction (FBSP) and the other is edge based distance prediction (EBDP), that find the best matched transformed coefficients on additional neighboring blocks. Experimental results show that the use of transform coefficients greatly enhances the efficiency of intra prediction whilst keeping complexity low compared to H.264/AVC

Specification-Driven Predictive Business Process Monitoring

Predictive analysis in business process monitoring aims at forecasting the future information of a running business process. The prediction is typically made based on the model extracted from historical process execution logs (event logs). In practice, different business domains might require different kinds of predictions. Hence, it is important to have a means for properly specifying the desired prediction tasks, and a mechanism to deal with these various prediction tasks. Although there have been many studies in this area, they mostly focus on a specific prediction task. This work introduces a language for specifying the desired prediction tasks, and this language allows us to express various kinds of prediction tasks. This work also presents a mechanism for automatically creating the corresponding prediction model based on the given specification. Differently from previous studies, instead of focusing on a particular prediction task, we present an approach to deal with various prediction tasks based on the given specification of the desired prediction tasks. We also provide an implementation of the approach which is used to conduct experiments using real-life event logs.Comment: This article significantly extends the previous work in https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91704-7_7 which has a technical report in arXiv:1804.00617. This article and the previous work have a coauthor in commo