Modelling Phosphorus for Grassland: Agronomically and Environmentally Sustainable Advice

End of project reportIn 2006, the Nitrates Directive (through S.I. 378 (Anon, 2006)) was implemented in Ireland, aimed at reducing nutrient losses from agriculture to water bodies, i.e. surface waters, groundwater and estuarine waters. This legislation introduced strict regulation of nutrient management on Irish farms. Thus far, nutrient management had largely been based on Teagasc advice (Coulter, 2004). However, in the new policy climate, in addition to advice, compliance with legal limits is also required. This significant change in the practicalities surrounding nutrient management led to a review of Teagasc nutrient (phosphorus and nitrogen) advice, based on the following considerations: Traditionally, nutrient advice had largely been based on fertiliser rates for economically optimal productivity, i.e. rates at which further fertiliser applications would not result in higher economic returns. Now, SI 378 of 2006 demands that nutrient application rates do not exceed crop (grass) demand, nor result in nutrient losses that may have a negative impact on water quality. Previous phosphorus (P) advice (Coulter, 2004) was similar for all soil types, and did not account for potentially different P-requirements, or indeed potentially different risks of P-loss to water between soils. Previous P advice was based on returning optimum crop yields. However, grassland management in Ireland is increasingly focussed on maximising the amount of herbage grazed in situ. With extended grazing seasons and an increasing share of the animal diet consisting of grazed herbage, the scope and flexibility of diet supplementation through straights and concentrates is reduced. An increasing proportion of dietary P must be obtained from this grazed herbage as a result. Therefore P fertiliser strategies should no longer be based on yield responses alone, but in addition sustain adequate herbage P-concentrations in order to ensure that the dietary P requirements can be met on a non-supplemented diet of grazed herbage. Against this background, Teagasc, Johnstown Castle Environment Research Centre, undertook a major research programme, reviewing both agronomic and environmental aspects of P-advice for grassland

Structural dynamic eutrophication models

This article discusses problems of modelling the seasonal succession of algal species in lakes and reservoirs, and the adaptive selection of certain groups of algae in response to changes in the inputs and relative concentrations of nutrients and other environmental variables. A new generation of quantitative models is being developed which attempts to translate some important biological properties of species (survival, variation, inheritance, reproductive rates and population growth) into predictions about the survival of the fittest, where ”fitness” is measured or estimated in thermodynamic terms. The concept of ”exergy” and its calculation is explored to examine maximal exergy as a measure of fitness in ecosystems, and its use for calculating changes in species composition by means of structural dynamic models. These models accomodate short-term changes in parameters that affect the adaptive responses (species selection) of algae

Dynamic phosphorus and nitrogen yield response model for economic optimisation

This paper provides an approach for modelling joint impact of two main nutrients in crop production for situations where there are available separate datasets for nitrogen and phosphorus fertiliser field experiments. Developing yield response models for Finnish spring barley crops (Hordeum vulgare L.) for clay and coarse soils and applying the models for dynamic economic analysis demonstrate the modelling approach. Model selection is based on iterative elimination from a wide diversity of plausible model formulations. Nonlinear weighted least squares method was utilised in estimation of the yield response models and dynamic programming was utilised in economic analysis. Our results suggest that fertiliser recommendations can be insufficient if soil phosphorus dynamics are ignored. Further, the optimal fertilisation rates for nitrogen and phosphorus, as well as the economic alternative costs of agri-environmental programmes depend on the soil texture of production area. Therefore, the efficiency of such programmes could be improved by targeting different fertilisation limits for different soil textures. In addition, uncertainty analysis revealed that the parameter uncertainty had a greater effect on the model output than the structural uncertainty. Further, the interaction of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers appeared to be a factor of relatively minor importance. The modelling approach and the model structure can be extended to other geographical areas, given that adequate datasets are available.This paper provides an approach for modelling joint impact of two main nutrients in crop production for situations where there are available separate datasets for nitrogen and phosphorus fertiliser field experiments. Developing yield response models for Finnish spring barley crops (Hordeum vulgare L.) for clay and coarse soils and applying the models for dynamic economic analysis demonstrate the modelling approach. Model selection is based on iterative elimination from a wide diversity of plausible model formulations. Nonlinear weighted least squares method was utilised in estimation of the yield response models and dynamic programming was utilised in economic analysis. Our results suggest that fertiliser recommendations can be insufficient if soil phosphorus dynamics are ignored. Further, the optimal fertilisation rates for nitrogen and phosphorus, as well as the economic alternative costs of agri-environmental programmes depend on the soil texture of production area. Therefore, the efficiency of such programmes could be improved by targeting different fertilisation limits for different soil textures. In addition, uncertainty analysis revealed that the parameter uncertainty had a greater effect on the model output than the structural uncertainty. Further, the interaction of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers appeared to be a factor of relatively minor importance. The modelling approach and the model structure can be extended to other geographical areas, given that adequate datasets are available

Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the "high hazardous" category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures

BAL phosphorus abundance and evidence for immense ionic column densities in quasar outflows: VLT X-Shooter observations of quasar SDSS J1512+1119

We present spectroscopic analysis of the broad absorption line outflow in quasar SDSS J1512+1119. In particular, we focus our attention on a kinematic component in which we identify PV and SIV/SIV* absorption troughs. The shape of the unblended phosphorus doublet troughs and the three SIV/SIV* troughs allow us to obtain reliable column density measurements for these two ions. Photoionization modelling using these column densities and those of HeI* constrain the abundance of phosphorus to the range of 0.5-4 times the solar value. The total column density, ionization parameter and metalicity inferred from the PV and SIV column densities leads to large optical depth values for the common transition observed in BAL outflows. We show that the true CIV optical depth, is about 1000 times greater in the core of the absorption profile than the value deduced from its apparent optical depth.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ on August 26, 2012; 33 pages, 8 figure

Developing a multi-pollutant conceptual framework for the selection and targeting of interventions in water industry catchment management schemes

In recent years water companies have started to adopt catchment management to reduce diffuse pollution in drinking water supply areas. The heterogeneity of catchments and the range of pollutants that must be removed to meet the EU Drinking Water Directive (98/83/EC) limits make it difficult to prioritise areas of a catchment for intervention. Thus conceptual frameworks are required that can disaggregate the components of pollutant risk and help water companies make decisions about where to target interventions in their catchments to maximum effect. This paper demonstrates the concept of generalising pollutants in the same framework by reviewing key pollutant processes within a source-mobilisation-delivery context. From this, criteria are developed (with input from water industry professionals involved in catchment management) which highlights the need for a new water industry specific conceptual framework. The new CaRPoW (Catchment Risk to Potable Water) framework uses the Source-Mobilisation-Delivery concept as modular components of risk that work at two scales, source and mobilisation at the field scale and delivery at the catchment scale. Disaggregating pollutant processes permits the main components of risk to be ascertained so that appropriate interventions can be selected. The generic structure also allows for the outputs from different pollutants to be compared so that potential multiple benefits can be identified. CaRPow provides a transferable framework that can be used by water companies to cost-effectively target interventions under current conditions or under scenarios of land use or climate change