Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation

Reducing the health risks of severe winter weather among older people in the United Kingdom: an evidence-based intervention

Excess winter morbidity and mortality among older people remain significant public health issues in those European countries which experience relatively mild winter temperatures, particularly the United Kingdom (UK), Ireland, Portugal and Spain. In the UK, episodes of severe winter weather, when ambient temperatures fall below 5x C, are associated with peaks in general practitioner consultations,hospital admissions, and cardiovascular deaths among those aged over 65. While research indicates that such health risks could be substantially reduced by the adoption of appropriate behavioural strategies, accessible and credible advice on how older people can reduce risk during ‘cold snaps’ is lacking. This paper describes a programme of research that aimed: (a) to translate the relevant scientific literature into practical advice for older people in order to reduce health risk during episodes of severe winter weather ; and (b) to integrate this advice with a severe winter weather ‘Early Warning System’ developed by the UK Met Office. An advice booklet was generated through a sequential process of systematic review, consensus development, and focus group discussions with older people. In a subsequent field trial, a combination of the Met Office ‘Early Warning System’ and the advice booklet produced behavioural change among older people consistent with risk reduction. The results also show that long-held convictions about ‘healthy environments ’ and anxieties about fuel costs are barriers to risk reduction

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use

The causes and consequences of seasonal variation in COPD exacerbations

Gavin C Donaldson, Jadwiga A Wedzicha Airways Disease Section, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK Abstract: The time of year when patients experience exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a much-overlooked feature of the disease. The higher incidence of exacerbations in winter has important consequences for patients in terms of increased morbidity and mortality. The seasonality also imposes a considerable burden on already-overloaded health care services, with both primary care consultations and hospital admissions increasing in number. The seasonality of exacerbations varies with latitude, and is greater in more temperate climates, where there may be less protection from outdoor and indoor cold exposure. The precise causes of the seasonality are unknown, but thought to be partly due to the increased prevalence of respiratory viral infections circulating in cold, damp conditions. Increased susceptibility to viral infection may also be a mechanism mediated through increased airway inflammation or possibly reduced vitamin D levels. The seasonality of exacerbations informs us about the triggers of exacerbations and suggests possible strategies to reduce their number. Keywords: exacerbations of COPD, seasonality, winter mortality, winter morbidit

Stratification of COPD patients by previous admission for targeting of preventative care

SummaryBackgroundHospital admissions for exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) impact considerably on disease evolution and healthcare provision. Building on previous studies, this study postulated that COPD patients could be stratified by risk of admission to determine which groups provide the greatest burden on resources, and how interventions should be targeted to prevent admissions.MethodsCOPD admissions during 1997–2003 in three Strategic Health Authorities in England were analysed (n=80,291). Patients admitted during winter (1 November–31 March) were stratified into three groups according to the number of admissions during the previous year: 0 (NIL), 1–2 (MOD) or ≥3 (FRQ). Winter weeks were classified as “average”, “above average”, “high”, or “very high” risk, compared with the long-term mean.ResultsThe risk of admission during winter for FRQ and MOD patients was 40% and 12% respectively. NIL patients contributed to 70% of winter admissions, and 90% of the variation between “average” and “very high” weeks, versus 9% and 1% for MOD and FRQ.ConclusionsPatients with no previous admissions have lower individual risk, but contribute to a high overall utilisation of health care resources and should be targeted to prevent admissions. Focusing upon high-risk patients (frequent attenders or more severe) may only reduce a small proportion of admissions, and therefore clinicians should ensure that all COPD patients receive appropriate therapy to reduce risk of exacerbations

Toward a Regulatory Pathway for the Use of in Silico Trials in The Ce Marking of Medical Devices

In Silico Trials methodologies will play a growing and fundamental role in the development and de-risking of new medical devices in the future. While the regulatory pathway for Digital Patient and Personal Health Forecasting solutions is clear, it is more complex for In Silico Trials solutions, and therefore deserves a deeper analysis. In this position paper, we investigate the current state of the art towards the regulatory system for in silico trials applied to medical devices while exploring the European regulatory system toward this topic. We suggest that the European regulatory system should start a process of innovation: in principle to limit distorted quality by different internal processes within notified bodies, hence avoiding that the more innovative and competitive companies focus their attention on the needs of other large markets, like the USA, where the use of such radical innovations is already rapidly developing

Validation of the Scale for the Assessment of Illness Behavior (SAIB) in a community sample of elderly people.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the construct validity of the SAIB in a community sample of elderly people. The SAIB was administered to a large community sample representative of the German population aged 60-85 years (n=1593). The original model was assessed and then refined through confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses. Criterion validity was evaluated by comparing SAIB scores with external criteria in 3 categories: subjective health, chronic illness and health care utilization. The originally suggested five factor structure of the SAIB yielded a comparative fit index (CFI) of 0.70 and the weighted root mean square residual (WRMR) was 3.68. A shortened questionnaire with 13 items and four factors resulted in better model fit (CFI 0.97 and WRMR 1.3). Correlations between subjective health and the new scales ranged from 0.06 to 0.33. Effect sizes (Cohens d) of mean differences in factor scores between those with and without healthcare system contact varied by healthcare type, ranging from 0.05 to 0.94; effect sizes were largest in relation to contact with psychotherapy and alternative medicine practitioners. We propose a shortened version of the SAIB with a different scale structure, which resulted in better model fit with our data. Neither the original nor revised SAIB appeared to discriminate well in terms of health care use, suggesting that the illness behavior as currently conceptualized may not fully explain the increased use of healthcare in the elderly

Semistructured black-box prediction: proposed approach for asthma admissions in London

Asthma is a global public health problem and the most common chronic disease among children. The factors associated with the condition are diverse, and environmental factors appear to be the leading cause of asthma exacerbation and its worsening disease burden. However, it remains unknown how changes in the environment affect asthma over time, and how temporal or environmental factors predict asthma events. The methodologies for forecasting asthma and other similar chronic conditions are not comprehensively documented anywhere to account for semistructured noncausal forecasting approaches. This paper highlights and discusses practical issues associated with asthma and the environment, and suggests possible approaches for developing decision-making tools in the form of semistructured black-box models, which is relatively new for asthma. Two statistical methods which can potentially be used in predictive modeling and health forecasting for both anticipated and peak events are suggested. Importantly, this paper attempts to bridge the areas of epidemiology, environmental medicine and exposure risks, and health services provision. The ideas discussed herein will support the development and implementation of early warning systems for chronic respiratory conditions in large populations, and ultimately lead to better decision-making tools for improving health service delivery. © 2012 Soyiri and Reidpath, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd

Evaluation of the cold weather plan for England:modelling of cost-effectiveness

OBJECTIVE: To determine the conditions under which the Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England is likely to prove cost-effective in order to inform the development of the CWP in the short term before direct data on costs and benefits can be collected. STUDY DESIGN: Mathematical modelling study undertaken in the absence of direct epidemiological evidence on the effect of the CWP in reducing cold-related mortality and morbidity, and limited data or on its costs. METHODS: The model comprised a simulated temperature time series based on historical data; epidemiologically-derived relationships between temperature, and mortality and morbidity; and information on baseline unit costs of contacts with health care and community care services. Cost-effectiveness was assessed assuming varying levels of protection against cold-related burdens, coverage of the vulnerable population and willingness-to-pay criteria. RESULTS: Simulations showed that the CWP is likely to be cost effective under some scenarios at the high end of the willingness to pay threshold used by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England, but these results are sensitive to assumptions about the extent of implementation of the CWP at local level, and its assumed effectiveness when implemented. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio varied from £29,754 to £75,875 per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained. Conventional cost-effectiveness (15%) in avoiding deaths and hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Although the modelling relied on a large number of assumptions, this type of modelling is useful for understanding whether, and in what circumstances, untested plans are likely to be cost-effective before they are implemented and in the early period of implementation before direct data on cost-effectiveness have accrued. Steps can then be taken to optimize the relevant parameters as far as practicable during the early implementation period