The A Posteriori Aspects of Estuarine Modeling

This exercise is the application of an analytical method for systematically modeling ecosystems data to observations made on a naturally eutrophic, mesohaline planktonic microcosm. The theory and experimental design are briefly outlined and the particular steps in the acutal modeling process follow. Then there is a discussion as to how the whole endeavor can be refined to culminate in models with predictive capabilities. (PDF has 16 pages.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 39 (2016): 311-332, doi:10.1007/s12237-015-0011-y.Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.NKG, ALA, and RPS acknowledge support from the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program. DKR gratefully acknowledges support from NSF (OCE-1314642) and NIEHS (1P50-ES021923-01). MJB and JMPV gratefully acknowledge support from NOAA NOS NCCOS (NA05NOS4781201 and NA11NOS4780043). MJB and SJL gratefully acknowledge support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program—Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (RC-1413 and RC-2245)

Progress and Challenges in Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Estuarine Modeling

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a theory of everything for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy

Water quality of Texas bays (nutrients, trace elements and toxic compounds)

This manuscript is designed to compare the nutrient balances and trace element significance in Texas Bays and Estuaries. The task of assigning water quality criteria in all estuarine waters rests with the federal Environmental Protection Agency. However, the Texas Bays and Estuaries represent a unique range of environments of the U.S. Coast that stand alone and therefore must be assigned standards appropriate to the environment. Therefore we have compared several Texas Bays relative to nutrients and trace elements through an analysis of data from our files, a life history data bank from literature survey, a study of the Corpus Christi area, personal communication with a wide range of individuals and information from the Texas Water Quality Board, Texas Water Development Board, the U.S. Geological Survey and the State Health Department.May 30, 1974Taken in part from a report on Development of Biological Criteria, Establishment of Guidelines for Texas Coast Management IAC-(74-75)-0685 NSF RANN-61-34870xMarine Scienc

The future of coastal and estuarine modeling: Findings from a workshop

This paper summarizes the findings of a workshop convened in the United States in 2018 to discuss methods in coastal and estuarine modeling and to propose key areas of research and development needed to improve their accuracy and reliability. The focus of this paper is on physical processes, and we provide an overview of the current state-of-the-art based on presentations and discussions at the meeting, which revolved around the four primary themes of parameterizations, numerical methods, in-situ and remote-sensing measurements,and high-performance computing. A primary outcome of the workshop was agreement on the need to reduce subjectivity and improve reproducibility in modeling of physical processes in the coastal ocean. Reduction of subjectivity can be accomplished through development of standards for benchmarks, grid generation, and validation, and reproducibility can be improved through development of standards for input/output, coupling and model nesting, and reporting. Subjectivity can also be reduced through more engagement with the applied mathematics and computer science communities to develop methods for robust parameter estimation anduncertainty quantification. Such engagement could be encouraged through more collaboration between thef orward and inverse modeling communities and integration of more applied math and computer science into oceanography curricula. Another outcome of the workshop was agreement on the need to develop high-resolution models that scale on advanced HPC systems to resolve, rather than parameterize, processes with horizontal scales that range between the depth and the internal Rossby deformation scale. Unsurprisingly,more research is needed on parameterizations of processes at scales smaller than the depth, includingparameterizations for drag (including bottom roughness, bedforms, vegetation and corals), wave breaking, and air–sea interactions under strong wind conditions. Other topics that require significantly more work to better parameterize include nearshore wave modeling, sediment transport modeling, and morphodynamics. Finally, it was agreed that coastal models should be considered as key infrastructure needed to support research, just like laboratory facilities, field instrumentation, and research vessels. This will require a shift in the way proposals related to coastal ocean modeling are reviewed and funded

Modeling the Chesapeake Bay and Tributaries: a synopsis

The last decade has seen the development and application of a spectrum of physical and numerical hydrographic models of the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. The success of the James River Hydraulic Model has initiated the construction of an estuarine hydraulic model of the entire Chesapeake System. Numerical analogues for hydrographic behavior and contaminant dispersion in one-, two-, and three dimensional model estuaries exist for various regions of the Bay. From an engineering viewpoint, one dimensional models are sufficiently advanced to be routinely employed in aiding management decisions. Bay investigators are playing leading roles in the development of two- and three-dimensional models of estuarine flows

State and parameter estimation using Monte Carlo evaluation of path integrals

Transferring information from observations of a dynamical system to estimate the fixed parameters and unobserved states of a system model can be formulated as the evaluation of a discrete time path integral in model state space. The observations serve as a guiding potential working with the dynamical rules of the model to direct system orbits in state space. The path integral representation permits direct numerical evaluation of the conditional mean path through the state space as well as conditional moments about this mean. Using a Monte Carlo method for selecting paths through state space we show how these moments can be evaluated and demonstrate in an interesting model system the explicit influence of the role of transfer of information from the observations. We address the question of how many observations are required to estimate the unobserved state variables, and we examine the assumptions of Gaussianity of the underlying conditional probability.Comment: Submitted to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 19 pages, 5 figure

Derivation of a three dimensional numerical water quality model for estuary and continental shelf application

A derivation is given for a three dimensional mass transport equation which is appropriate for numerical modeling of estuary and continental shelf water quality variations for both the time dependent and steady state cases. A finite difference approximation to the derived equation is presented and a solution scheme for the resulting equations outlined. Preliminary results are obtained using the model for the extremely simple problems which have analytical solutions. The numerical model, as presented, will provide a scheme to study water quality problems in coastal waters for both steady state and time dependent cases