Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity

Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found in Landsea et al. 2006. The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages

The role of secondary cyclones and cyclone families for the North Atlantic storm track and clustering over western Europe

Secondary cyclones are those that form in association with a pre‐existing primary cyclone, typically along a trailing cold front. In previously studied cases they have been shown to cause extreme damage across Europe, particularly when multiple cyclones track over the same location in rapid succession (known as cyclone clustering). To determine the dynamical relationship between primary and secondary cyclones over the North Atlantic, a frontal identification algorithm is partnered with a cyclone identification method to objectively identify secondary cyclones in 35 extended winter periods using reanalysis data. Cyclones are grouped into “cyclone families” consisting of a single primary cyclone and one or more secondary cyclones. This paper aims to quantify the differences between secondary and primary cyclones over the North Atlantic, and how cyclone families contribute to episodes of cyclone clustering across western Europe. Secondary cyclones are shown to occur most frequently in the central and eastern North Atlantic, whereas primary cyclones are commonly found over the western North Atlantic. Cyclone families have their strongest presence over the North Atlantic Ocean and contribute more than 50% of cyclones over the main North Atlantic storm track. A final category, solo cyclones, which are not associated with cyclogenesis on any connected fronts, are most commonly identified over continental regions as well as the Mediterranean Sea. Primary cyclones are associated with the development of an environment that is favourable for secondary cyclone growth. Enhanced Rossby wave breaking following primary cyclone development leads to an increase in the upper‐level jet speed and a decrease in low‐level stability. Secondary cyclogenesis commonly occurs in this region of anomalously low stability, close to the European continent. During periods of cyclone clustering, secondary cyclones are responsible for approximately 50% of the total number of cyclones. The increase in jet speed and decrease in static stability initiated by the primary cyclones acts to concentrate the genesis region of secondary cyclones and direct the cyclones that form along a similar track. While there is an increase in the secondary cyclogenesis rate near western Europe during periods of European clustering, the basin‐wide secondary cyclogenesis rate decreases during these periods. Thus the large‐scale environment redistributes secondary cyclones during periods of clustering rather than increasing the total number of secondary cyclones

Impact of sea surface height anomalies on cyclone track

Predicting accurate cyclone tracks is crucial for disaster management practices. The unusual westward movement of the 6-11 May 2002 Arabian Sea cyclone has been investigated through community mesoscale National Centre for Atmospheric Research model by giving different sea surface temperatures (SST) in different experiments keeping all other conditions same. In one experiment, we converted sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) to SST. Oceanic eddies and SSHAs, representing the subsurface thermal structure, played a prominent role in the unusual westward movement of this cyclone. This is the first time that the effect of eddies and SSHAs on cyclone track has been reported

Comparison of next-generation portable pollution monitors to measure exposure to PM2.5 from household air pollution in Puno, Peru.

Assessment of personal exposure to PM2.5 is critical for understanding intervention effectiveness and exposure-response relationships in household air pollution studies. In this pilot study, we compared PM2.5 concentrations obtained from two next-generation personal exposure monitors (the Enhanced Children MicroPEM or ECM; and the Ultrasonic Personal Air Sampler or UPAS) to those obtained with a traditional Triplex Cyclone and SKC Air Pump (a gravimetric cyclone/pump sampler). We co-located cyclone/pumps with an ECM and UPAS to obtain 24-hour kitchen concentrations and personal exposure measurements. We measured Spearmen correlations and evaluated agreement using the Bland-Altman method. We obtained 215 filters from 72 ECM and 71 UPAS co-locations. Overall, the ECM and the UPAS had similar correlation (ECM ρ = 0.91 vs UPAS ρ = 0.88) and agreement (ECM mean difference of 121.7 µg/m3 vs UPAS mean difference of 93.9 µg/m3 ) with overlapping confidence intervals when compared against the cyclone/pump. When adjusted for the limit of detection, agreement between the devices and the cyclone/pump was also similar for all samples (ECM mean difference of 68.8 µg/m3 vs UPAS mean difference of 65.4 µg/m3 ) and personal exposure samples (ECM mean difference of -3.8 µg/m3 vs UPAS mean difference of -12.9 µg/m3 ). Both the ECM and UPAS produced comparable measurements when compared against a cyclone/pump setup

A comparison of PAH emission sampling methods (cyclone, impactor) in particulate and gaseous phase

Four different domestic heating boilers and four types of fuel (lignite, wet wood, wood pellets and mixed fuel) were tested, and the emissions of the particulate matter (PM) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were correlated. Dekati low-pressure impactor (DLPI, Dekati) sorting of the PM fractions into PM0.1, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 was used to determine the emission factors of the PAHs in a dilution tunnel via isokinetic sampling and was compared with a cyclone (Tecora). The 4 PAHs were mostly detected on the fine particles of PM1 in the DLPI and on the fine particles of PM2.5 in the cyclone, and in some cases, they were mainly detected in polyurethane foam (PUF) used for the collection of the gas phase placed behind the DLPI and cyclone. The effectiveness of DLPI sampling was generally comparable or lower than the cyclone sampling of the range 0.01-1.33 mg kg(-1).Web of Science18485584

Cyclone Codes

We introduce Cyclone codes which are rateless erasure resilient codes. They combine Pair codes with Luby Transform (LT) codes by computing a code symbol from a random set of data symbols using bitwise XOR and cyclic shift operations. The number of data symbols is chosen according to the Robust Soliton distribution. XOR and cyclic shift operations establish a unitary commutative ring if data symbols have a length of $p-1$ bits, for some prime number $p$. We consider the graph given by code symbols combining two data symbols. If $n/2$ such random pairs are given for $n$ data symbols, then a giant component appears, which can be resolved in linear time. We can extend Cyclone codes to data symbols of arbitrary even length, provided the Goldbach conjecture holds. Applying results for this giant component, it follows that Cyclone codes have the same encoding and decoding time complexity as LT codes, while the overhead is upper-bounded by those of LT codes. Simulations indicate that Cyclone codes significantly decreases the overhead of extra coding symbols