Spatial transferability of the physically based model TRIGRS using parameter ensembles

The development of better, more reliable and more efficient susceptibility assessments for shallow landslides is becoming increasingly important. Physically based models are well-suited for this, due to their high predictive capability. However, their demands for large, high-resolution and detailed input datasets make them very time-consuming and costly methods. This study investigates if a spatially transferable model calibration can be created with the use of parameter ensembles and with this alleviate the time-consuming calibration process of these methods. To investigate this, the study compares the calibration of the model TRIGRS in two different study areas. The first study area was taken from a previous study where the dynamic physically based model TRIGRS was calibrated for the Laternser valley in Vorarlberg, Austria. The calibrated parameter ensemble and its performance from this previous study are compared with a calibrated parameter ensemble of the model TRIGRS for the Passeier valley in South Tyrol, Italy. The comparison showed very similar model performance and large similarities in the calibrated geotechnical parameter values of the best model runs in both study areas. There is a subset of calibrated geotechnical parameter values that can be used successfully in both study areas and potentially other study areas with similar lithological characteristics. For the hydraulic parameters, the study did not find a transferable parameter subset. These parameters seem to be more sensitive to different soil types. Additionally, the results of the study also showed the importance of the inclusion of detailed information on the timing of landslide initiation in the calibration of the model

Multi-sensor monitoring and data integration reveal cyclical destabilization of the Äußeres Hochebenkar rock glacier

This study investigates rock glacier destabilization based on the results of a unique in situ and remote-sensing-based monitoring network focused on the kinematics of the rock glacier in Äußeres Hochebenkar (Austrian Alps). We consolidate, homogenize, and extend existing time series to generate a comprehensive dataset consisting of 14 digital surface models covering a 68-year time period, as well as in situ measurements of block displacement since the early 1950s. The digital surface models are derived from historical aerial imagery and, more recently, airborne and uncrewed-aerial-vehicle-based laser scanning (ALS and ULS, respectively). High-resolution 3D ALS and ULS point clouds are available at annual temporal resolution from 2017 to 2021. Additional terrestrial laser scanning data collected in bi-weekly intervals during the summer of 2019 are available from the rock glacier front. Using image correlation techniques, we derive velocity vectors from the digital surface models, thereby adding rock-glacier-wide spatial context to the point-scale block displacement measurements. Based on velocities, surface elevation changes, analyses of morphological features, and computations of the bulk creep factor and strain rates, we assess the combined datasets in terms of rock glacier destabilization. To additionally investigate potential rotational components of the movement of the destabilized section of the rock glacier, we integrate in situ data of block displacement with ULS point clouds and compute changes in the rotation angles of single blocks during recent years. The time series shows two cycles of destabilization in the lower section of the rock glacier. The first lasted from the early 1950s until the mid-1970s. The second began around 2017 after approximately 2 decades of more gradual acceleration and is currently ongoing. Both destabilization periods are characterized by high velocities and the development of morphological destabilization features on the rock glacier surface. Acceleration in the most recent years has been very pronounced, with velocities reaching 20–30 m a−1 in 2020–2021. These values are unprecedented in the time series and suggest highly destabilized conditions in the lower section of the rock glacier, which shows signs of translational and rotational landslide-like movement. Due to the length and granularity of the time series, the cyclic destabilization process at the Äußeres Hochebenkar rock glacier is well resolved in the dataset. Our study highlights the importance of interdisciplinary, long-term, and continuous high-resolution 3D monitoring to improve process understanding and model development related to rock glacier rheology and destabilization

Analysis of filtering techniques for investigating landslide-induced topographic changes in the Oetz Valley (Tyrol, Austria)

Landslides endanger settlements and infrastructure in mountain areas across the world. Monitoring of landslides is therefore essential in order to understand and possibly predict their behavior and potential danger. Terrestrial laser scanning has proven to be a successful tool in the assessment of changes on landslide surfaces due to its high resolution and accuracy. However, it is necessary to classify the 3D point clouds into vegetation and bare-earth points using filtering algorithms so that changes caused by landslide activity can be quantified. For this study, three classification algorithms are compared on an exemplary landslide study site in the Oetz valley in Tyrol, Austria. An optimal set of parameters is derived for each algorithm and their performances are evaluated using different metrics. The volume changes on the study site between the years 2017 and 2019 are compared after the application of each algorithm. The results show that (i) the tested filter techniques perform differently, (ii) their performance depends on their parameterization and (iii) the best-performing parameterization found over the vegetated test area will yield misclassifications on non-vegetated rough terrain. In particular, if only small changes have occurred the choice of the filtering technique and its parameterization play an important role in estimating volume changes.publishedVersio

Adopting the margin of stability for space–time landslide prediction – A data-driven approach for generating spatial dynamic thresholds

Shallow landslide initiation typically results from an interplay of dynamic triggering and preparatory conditions along with static predisposition factors. While data-driven methods for assessing landslide susceptibility or for establishing rainfall-triggering thresholds are prevalent, integrating spatio-temporal information for dynamic large-area landslide prediction remains a challenge. The main aim of this research is to generate a dynamic spatial landslide initiation model that operates at a daily scale and explicitly counteracts potential errors in the available landslide data. Unlike previous studies focusing on space–time landslide modelling, it places a strong emphasis on reducing the propagation of landslide data errors into the modelling results, while ensuring interpretable outcomes. It introduces also other noteworthy innovations, such as visualizing the final predictions as dynamic spatial thresholds linked to true positive rates and false alarm rates and by using animations for highlighting its application potential for hindcasting and scenario-building. The initial step involves the creation of a spatio-temporally representative sample of landslide presence and absence observations for the study area of South Tyrol, Italy (7400 km2) within well-investigated terrain. Model setup entails integrating landslide controls that operate on various temporal scales through a binomial Generalized Additive Mixed Model. Model relationships are then interpreted based on variable importance and partial effect plots, while predictive performance is evaluated through various cross-validation techniques. Optimal and user-defined probability cutpoints are used to establish quantitative thresholds that reflect both, the true positive rate (correctly predicted landslides) and the false positive rate (precipitation periods misclassified as landslide-inducing conditions). The resulting dynamic maps directly visualize landslide threshold exceedance. The model demonstrates high predictive performance while revealing geomorphologically plausible prediction patterns largely consistent with current process knowledge. Notably, the model also shows that generally drier hillslopes exhibit a greater sensitivity to certain precipitation events than regions adapted to wetter conditions. The practical applicability of the approach is demonstrated in a hindcasting and scenario-building context. In the currently evolving field of space–time landslide modelling, we recommend focusing on data error handling, model interpretability, and geomorphic plausibility, rather than allocating excessive resources to algorithm and case study comparisons.</p

An overview of monitoring methods for assessing the performance of nature-based solutions against natural hazards

To bring to fruition the capability of nature-based solutions (NBS) in mitigating hydro-meteorological risks (HMRs) and facilitate their widespread uptake require a consolidated knowledge-base related to their monitoring methods, efficiency, functioning and the ecosystem services they provide. We attempt to fill this knowledge gap by reviewing and compiling the existing scientific literature on methods, including ground-based measurements (e.g. gauging stations, wireless sensor network) and remote sensing observations (e.g. from topographic LiDAR, multispectral and radar sensors) that have been used and/or can be relevant to monitor the performance of NBS against five HMRs: floods, droughts, heatwaves, landslides, and storm surges and coastal erosion. These can allow the mapping of the risks and impacts of the specific hydro-meteorological events. We found that the selection and application of monitoring methods mostly rely on the particular NBS being monitored, resource availability (e.g. time, budget, space) and type of HMRs. No standalone method currently exists that can allow monitoring the performance of NBS in its broadest view. However, equipments, tools and technologies developed for other purposes, such as for ground-based measurements and atmospheric observations, can be applied to accurately monitor the performance of NBS to mitigate HMRs. We also focused on the capabilities of passive and active remote sensing, pointing out their associated opportunities and difficulties for NBS monitoring application. We conclude that the advancement in airborne and satellite-based remote sensing technology has signified a leap in the systematic monitoring of NBS performance, as well as provided a robust way for the spatial and temporal comparison of NBS intervention versus its absence. This improved performance measurement can support the evaluation of existing uncertainty and scepticism in selecting NBS over the artificially built concrete structures or grey approaches by addressing the questions of performance precariousness. Remote sensing technical developments, however, take time to shift toward a state of operational readiness for monitoring the progress of NBS in place (e.g. green NBS growth rate, their changes and effectiveness through time). More research is required to develop a holistic approach, which could routinely and continually monitor the performance of NBS over a large scale of intervention. This performance evaluation could increase the ecological and socio-economic benefits of NBS, and also create high levels of their acceptance and confidence by overcoming potential scepticism of NBS implementations

Nature-based solutions efficiency evaluation against natural hazards: modelling methods, advantages and limitations

Nature-based solutions (NBS) for hydro-meteorological risks (HMRs) reduction and management are becoming increasingly popular, but challenges such as the lack of well-recognised standard methodologies to evaluate their performance and upscale their implementation remain. We systematically evaluate the current state-of-the art on the models and tools that are utilised for the optimum allocation, design and efficiency evaluation of NBS for five HMRs (flooding, droughts, heatwaves, landslides, and storm surges and coastal erosion). We found that methods to assess the complex issue of NBS efficiency and cost-benefits analysis are still in the development stage and they have only been implemented through the methodologies developed for other purposes such as fluid dynamics models in micro and catchment scale contexts. Of the reviewed numerical models and tools MIKE-SHE, SWMM (for floods), ParFlow-TREES, ACRU, SIMGRO (for droughts), WRF, ENVI-met (for heatwaves), FUNWAVE-TVD, BROOK90 (for landslides), TELEMAC and ADCIRC (for storm surges) are more flexible to evaluate the performance and effectiveness of specific NBS such as wetlands, ponds, trees, parks, grass, green roof/walls, tree roots, vegetations, coral reefs, mangroves, sea grasses, oyster reefs, sea salt marshes, sandy beaches and dunes. We conclude that the models and tools that are capable of assessing the multiple benefits, particularly the performance and cost-effectiveness of NBS for HMR reduction and management are not readily available. Thus, our synthesis of modelling methods can facilitate their selection that can maximise opportunities and refute the current political hesitation of NBS deployment compared with grey solutions for HMR management but also for the provision of a wide range of social and economic co-benefits. However, there is still a need for bespoke modelling tools that can holistically assess the various components of NBS from an HMR reduction and management perspective. Such tools can facilitate impact assessment modelling under different NBS scenarios to build a solid evidence base for upscaling and replicating the implementation of NBS

Towards an operationalisation of nature-based solutions for natural hazards

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are being promoted as adaptive measures against predicted increasing hydrometeorological hazards (HMHs), such as heatwaves and floods which have already caused significant loss of life and economic damage across the globe. However, the underpinning factors such as policy framework, end-users' interests and participation for NBS design and operationalisation are yet to be established. We discuss the operationalisation and implementation processes of NBS by means of a novel concept of Open-Air Laboratories (OAL) for its wider acceptance. The design and implementation of environmentally, economically, technically and socio-culturally sustainable NBS require inter- and transdisciplinary approaches which could be achieved by fostering co-creation processes by engaging stakeholders across various sectors and levels, inspiring more effective use of skills, diverse knowledge, manpower and resources, and connecting and harmonising the adaptation aims. The OAL serves as a benchmark for NBS upscaling, replication and exploitation in policy-making process through monitoring by field measurement, evaluation by key performance indicators and building solid evidence on their short- and long-term multiple benefits in different climatic, environmental and socio-economic conditions, thereby alleviating the challenges of political resistance, financial barriers and lack of knowledge. We conclude that holistic management of HMHs by effective use of NBS can be achieved with standard compliant data for replicating and monitoring NBS in OALs, knowledge about policy silos and interaction between research communities and end-users. Further research is needed for multi-risk analysis of HMHs and inclusion of NBS into policy frameworks, adaptable at local, regional and national scales leading to modification in the prevalent guidelines related to HMHs. The findings of this work can be used for developing synergies between current policy frameworks, scientific research and practical implementation of NBS in Europe and beyond for its wider acceptance