A Logistic Regression Based Auto Insurance Rate-Making Model Designed for the Insurance Rate Reform

Using a generalized linear model to determine the claim frequency of auto insurance is a key ingredient in non-life insurance research. Among auto insurance rate-making models, there are very few considering auto types. Therefore, in this paper we are proposing a model that takes auto types into account by making an innovative use of the auto burden index. Based on this model and data from a Chinese insurance company, we built a clustering model that classifies auto insurance rates into three risk levels. The claim frequency and the claim costs are fitted to select a better loss distribution. Then the Logistic Regression model is employed to fit the claim frequency, with the auto burden index considered. Three key findings can be concluded from our study. First, more than 80% of the autos with an auto burden index of 20 or higher belong to the highest risk level. Secondly, the claim frequency is better fitted using the Poisson distribution, however the claim cost is better fitted using the Gamma distribution. Lastly, based on the AIC criterion, the claim frequency is more adequately represented by models that consider the auto burden index than those do not. It is believed that insurance policy recommendations that are based on Generalized linear models (GLM) can benefit from our findings

Threshold Effect in the Relationship between Environmental Regulations and Haze Pollution: Empirical Evidence from PSTR Estimation

The impact of environmental regulations (ER) on haze pollution control has been continuously debated in the field of sustainable development. This paper explores the direct and indirect threshold effects of ER on haze pollution, and five underlying mechanisms—technological innovation (TI), industrial structure (IS), foreign direct investment (FDI), urbanization (UR), and electricity consumption (EC)—are adopted to investigate the indirect threshold effects. Panel data, over the period 2008–2018, of 284 Chinese cities were used and the threshold effects were predicted endogenously based on the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model. The results showed the following: (1) For the direct threshold effect, there exists a U-shaped relationship between ER and haze pollution. ER significantly reduced haze pollution when ER < 38.86 due to “cost effects”. However, ER increased haze pollution after the threshold owing to the “green paradox”, which was not significant. (2) For the indirect threshold effect, when TI = 0.37, IS = 39.61, FDI = 7.25, and UR = 42.86, the relationships between ER and haze pollution changed. The changes and corresponding reasons for the indirect threshold effects are discussed in detail. (3) After a comprehensive analysis, the threshold effects have obvious regional distribution characteristics and internal connections. Finally, based on the results, it is essential for governments to enact appropriate environmental regulatory policies and enhance inter-regional synergies in environmental governance

A Logistic Regression Based Auto Insurance Rate-Making Model Designed for the Insurance Rate Reform

Using a generalized linear model to determine the claim frequency of auto insurance is a key ingredient in non-life insurance research. Among auto insurance rate-making models, there are very few considering auto types. Therefore, in this paper we are proposing a model that takes auto types into account by making an innovative use of the auto burden index. Based on this model and data from a Chinese insurance company, we built a clustering model that classifies auto insurance rates into three risk levels. The claim frequency and the claim costs are fitted to select a better loss distribution. Then the Logistic Regression model is employed to fit the claim frequency, with the auto burden index considered. Three key findings can be concluded from our study. First, more than 80% of the autos with an auto burden index of 20 or higher belong to the highest risk level. Secondly, the claim frequency is better fitted using the Poisson distribution, however the claim cost is better fitted using the Gamma distribution. Lastly, based on the AIC criterion, the claim frequency is more adequately represented by models that consider the auto burden index than those do not. It is believed that insurance policy recommendations that are based on Generalized linear models (GLM) can benefit from our findings