Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Correction to: Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Accuracy and the effect of possible subject-based confounders of magnitude-based MRI for estimating hepatic proton density fat fraction in adults, using MR spectroscopy as reference.

PurposeTo determine the accuracy and the effect of possible subject-based confounders of magnitude-based magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for estimating hepatic proton density fat fraction (PDFF) for different numbers of echoes in adults with known or suspected nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, using MR spectroscopy (MRS) as a reference.Materials and methodsIn this retrospective analysis of 506 adults, hepatic PDFF was estimated by unenhanced 3.0T MRI, using right-lobe MRS as reference. Regions of interest placed on source images and on six-echo parametric PDFF maps were colocalized to MRS voxel location. Accuracy using different numbers of echoes was assessed by regression and Bland-Altman analysis; slope, intercept, average bias, and R2 were calculated. The effect of age, sex, and body mass index (BMI) on hepatic PDFF accuracy was investigated using multivariate linear regression analyses.ResultsMRI closely agreed with MRS for all tested methods. For three- to six-echo methods, slope, regression intercept, average bias, and R2 were 1.01-0.99, 0.11-0.62%, 0.24-0.56%, and 0.981-0.982, respectively. Slope was closest to unity for the five-echo method. The two-echo method was least accurate, underestimating PDFF by an average of 2.93%, compared to an average of 0.23-0.69% for the other methods. Statistically significant but clinically nonmeaningful effects on PDFF error were found for subject BMI (P range: 0.0016 to 0.0783), male sex (P range: 0.015 to 0.037), and no statistically significant effect was found for subject age (P range: 0.18-0.24).ConclusionHepatic magnitude-based MRI PDFF estimates using three, four, five, and six echoes, and six-echo parametric maps are accurate compared to reference MRS values, and that accuracy is not meaningfully confounded by age, sex, or BMI

Accuracy of multiecho magnitude-based MRI (M-MRI) for estimation of hepatic proton density fat fraction (PDFF) in children.

PurposeTo assess accuracy of magnitude-based magnetic resonance imaging (M-MRI) in children to estimate hepatic proton density fat fraction (PDFF) using two to six echoes, with magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) -measured PDFF as a reference standard.MethodsThis was an IRB-approved, HIPAA-compliant, single-center, cross-sectional, retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively between 2008 and 2013 in children with known or suspected nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Two hundred eighty-six children (8-20 [mean 14.2 ± 2.5] years; 182 boys) underwent same-day MRS and M-MRI. Unenhanced two-dimensional axial spoiled gradient-recalled-echo images at six echo times were obtained at 3T after a single low-flip-angle (10°) excitation with ≥ 120-ms recovery time. Hepatic PDFF was estimated using the first two, three, four, five, and all six echoes. For each number of echoes, accuracy of M-MRI to estimate PDFF was assessed by linear regression with MRS-PDFF as reference standard. Accuracy metrics were regression intercept, slope, average bias, and R(2) .ResultsMRS-PDFF ranged from 0.2-40.4% (mean 13.1 ± 9.8%). Using three to six echoes, regression intercept, slope, and average bias were 0.46-0.96%, 0.99-1.01, and 0.57-0.89%, respectively. Using two echoes, these values were 2.98%, 0.97, and 2.72%, respectively. R(2) ranged 0.98-0.99 for all methods.ConclusionUsing three to six echoes, M-MRI has high accuracy for hepatic PDFF estimation in children

Effect of intravenous gadoxetate disodium and flip angle on hepatic proton density fat fraction estimation with six-echo, gradient-recalled-echo, magnitude-based MR imaging at 3T

PURPOSE: The aim of the study was to determine in patients undergoing gadoxetate disodium (Gx)-enhanced MR exams whether proton density fat fraction (PDFF) estimation accuracy of magnitude-based multi-gradient-echo MRI (MRI-M) could be improved by using high flip angle (FA) on post-contrast images. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-one adults with known or suspected hepatic steatosis undergoing 3T clinical Gx-enhanced liver MRI were enrolled prospectively. MR spectroscopy (MRS), the reference standard, was performed before Gx to measure MRS-PDFF. Low (10°)- and high (50°)-flip angle (FA) MRI-M sequences were acquired before and during the hepatobiliary phase after Gx administration; MRI-PDFF was estimated in the MRS-PDFF voxel location. Linear regression parameters (slope, intercept, average bias, R ) were calculated for MRS-PDFF as a function of MRI-PDFF for each MRI-M sequence (pre-Gx low-FA, pre-Gx high-FA, post-Gx low-FA, post-Gx high-FA) for all patients and for patients with MRS-PDFF \u3c10%. Regression parameters were compared (Bonferroni-adjusted bootstrap-based tests). RESULTS: Three of the four MRI-M sequences (pre-Gx low-FA, post-Gx low-FA, post-Gx high-FA) provided relatively unbiased PDFF estimates overall and in the low-PDFF range, with regression slopes close to 1 and intercepts and biases close to zero. Pre-Gx high-FA MRI overestimated PDFF in proportion to MRS-PDFF, with slopes of 0.72 (overall) and 0.63 (low-PDFF range). Based on regression bias closest to 0, the post-Gx high-FA sequence was the most accurate overall and in the low-PDFF range. This sequence provided statistically significant improvements in at least two regression parameters compared to every other sequence. CONCLUSION: In patients undergoing Gx-enhanced MR exams, PDFF estimation accuracy of MRI-M can be improved by using high-FA on post-contrast images

Effect of intravenous gadoxetate disodium and flip angle on hepatic proton density fat fraction estimation with six-echo, gradient-recalled-echo, magnitude-based MR imaging at 3T.

PurposeThe aim of the study was to determine in patients undergoing gadoxetate disodium (Gx)-enhanced MR exams whether proton density fat fraction (PDFF) estimation accuracy of magnitude-based multi-gradient-echo MRI (MRI-M) could be improved by using high flip angle (FA) on post-contrast images.Materials and methodsThirty-one adults with known or suspected hepatic steatosis undergoing 3T clinical Gx-enhanced liver MRI were enrolled prospectively. MR spectroscopy (MRS), the reference standard, was performed before Gx to measure MRS-PDFF. Low (10°)- and high (50°)-flip angle (FA) MRI-M sequences were acquired before and during the hepatobiliary phase after Gx administration; MRI-PDFF was estimated in the MRS-PDFF voxel location. Linear regression parameters (slope, intercept, average bias, R 2) were calculated for MRS-PDFF as a function of MRI-PDFF for each MRI-M sequence (pre-Gx low-FA, pre-Gx high-FA, post-Gx low-FA, post-Gx high-FA) for all patients and for patients with MRS-PDFF <10%. Regression parameters were compared (Bonferroni-adjusted bootstrap-based tests).ResultsThree of the four MRI-M sequences (pre-Gx low-FA, post-Gx low-FA, post-Gx high-FA) provided relatively unbiased PDFF estimates overall and in the low-PDFF range, with regression slopes close to 1 and intercepts and biases close to zero. Pre-Gx high-FA MRI overestimated PDFF in proportion to MRS-PDFF, with slopes of 0.72 (overall) and 0.63 (low-PDFF range). Based on regression bias closest to 0, the post-Gx high-FA sequence was the most accurate overall and in the low-PDFF range. This sequence provided statistically significant improvements in at least two regression parameters compared to every other sequence.ConclusionIn patients undergoing Gx-enhanced MR exams, PDFF estimation accuracy of MRI-M can be improved by using high-FA on post-contrast images