The Causal Learning of Retail Delinquency

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.Comment: This paper was accepted and will be published in the Thirty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-21

Research on Comprehensive Evaluation of Electricity Market Risk Based on Subjective and Objective Weighting

[Introduction] With the emphasis and promotion of the electricity market system construction by the government, the electricity market is constantly growing towards a deeper and more unified direction. In order to promote the electricity market construction, the influence factors of the electricity market risk and its evaluation remain to be studied further. [Method] Based on the consideration of the whole cycle of electricity market trading, this paper took pre-trade risk, during-trade risk, and post-trade riskas the entry points, integrated the existing risks in each stage of electricity market, and established the risk evaluation index system for electricity market. Based on the thought of subjective and objective weighting, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method were used to assign weights to the index system respectively, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) was adopted to evaluate the comprehensive risk level of the electricity market. [Result] The rationality, comprehensiveness and validity of the proposed model are verified through the analysis of the calculation examples of different electricity markets. [Conclusion] The model eatablished in this paper can conduct a comprehensive risk evaluation for the electricity market, and provide a theoretical reference for the construction of the risk system of the electricity market and its future development direction

Fosthiazate inhibits root-knot disease and alters rhizosphere microbiome of Cucumis melo var. saccharinus

Root-knot nematodes especially Meloidogyne spp. are considered as most destructive obligate parasites that substantially reduce crop yield and quality. Fosthiazate is an efficient organothiophosphate chemical with nematicidal activity against Meloidogyne spp. The present study aimed to analyze the efficacy of fosthiazate against root-knot disease in Cucumis melo var. saccharinus and its potential effects on rhizosphere microbiome and metabolites. The fosthiazate (40%) was applied two times by spraying on the day of transplanting and during the pollination period (after 31 days). Samples from treatment (fosthiazate 40%: MF) and control groups (untreated plants; MCK) were analysed through metagenomic and metabolomic profiling of rhizospheres. Results revealed that root-knot index of the MF group (9.26 ± 1.28) was significantly (p < 0.05) lower than the MCK group (22.06 ± 0.71) with a control effect of 57.85% after 31 days of the first spray, whereas fosthiazate efficacy reduced to 31.87% after 38 days of second application with significantly (p < 0.05) different root-knot index values (MF: 56 ± 1.43 and; MCK: 82.26 ± 3.87). However, Cucumis melo var. saccharinus fruit yield in both groups (MCK: 21.1 ± 0.9 and MF: 21.53 ± 0.85) showed no differences (p > 0.05). Metagenomic profiling revealed Proteobacteria, Acidobacteriota, and Firmicutes as predominant phyla and Bacillus, Sphingomonas, and Acidibacter as predominant genera in rhizosphere soil samples of both MF and MCK groups. Further, a t-test revealed higher differential enrichment of Firmicutes at phylum level and Bacillus at genus level in MF than MCK. Metabolomic profiling of rhizospheric soil revealed a total of six differential metabolites (p < 0.05), four of them (Sucrose, Hexaonic acid 1, (Z)-9-Octadecenamide 1, and Hexadecanamide) were up-regulated in MF group, whereas two of them (2,3,4-Trihydroxy-3-(Hydroxymethyl) Butanol and Sulfurous acid, 2, ethylhexylundecyl ester) were down-regulated in CK group. Our study concluded that fosthiazate exhibits a better control over the rook-knot disease in the short term and resulted in trackable changes in rhizosphere microbiome and metabolome

Virtual reality-induced motor function of the upper extremity and brain activation in stroke: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BackgroundThe benefits of virtual reality (VR)-based rehabilitation were reported in patients after stroke, but there is insufficient evidence about how VR promotes brain activation in the central nervous system. Hence, we designed this study to explore the effects of VR-based intervention on upper extremity motor function and associated brain activation in stroke patients.Methods/designIn this single-center, randomized, parallel-group clinical trial with a blinded assessment of outcomes, a total of 78 stroke patients will be assigned randomly to either the VR group or the control group. All stroke patients who have upper extremity motor deficits will be tested with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), electroencephalography (EEG), and clinical evaluation. Clinical assessment and fMRI will be performed three times on each subject. The primary outcome is the change in performance on the Fugl-Meyer Assessment Upper Extremity Scale (FMA-UE). Secondary outcomes are functional independence measure (FIM), Barthel Index (BI), grip strength, and changes in the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) effect in the ipsilesional and contralesional primary motor cortex (M1) on the left and right hemispheres assessed with resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI), task-state fMRI (ts-fMRI), and changes in EEG at the baseline and weeks 4 and 8.DiscussionThis study aims to provide high-quality evidence for the relationship between upper extremity motor function and brain activation in stroke. In addition, this is the first multimodal neuroimaging study that explores the evidence for neuroplasticity and associated upper motor function recovery after VR in stroke patients.Clinical trial registrationChinese Clinical Trial Registry, identifier: ChiCTR2200063425

A \u3cem\u3eLIN28B\u3c/em\u3e Tumor-Specific Transcript in Cancer

The diversity and complexity of the cancer transcriptome may contain transcripts unique to the tumor environment. Here, we report a LIN28B variant, LIN28B-TST, which is specifically expressed in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and many other cancer types. Expression of LIN28B-TST is associated with significantly poor prognosis in HCC patients. LIN28B-TST initiates from a de novo alternative transcription initiation site that harbors a strong promoter regulated by NFYA but not c-Myc. Demethylation of the LIN28B-TST promoter might be a prerequisite for its transcription and transcriptional regulation. LIN28B-TST encodes a protein isoform with additional N-terminal amino acids and is critical for cancer cell proliferation and tumorigenesis. Our findings reveal a mechanism of LIN28B activation in cancer and the potential utility of LIN28B-TST for clinical purposes

Fish-T1K (Transcriptomes of 1,000 Fishes) Project: Large-Scale Transcriptome Data for Fish Evolution Studies

Ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii) represent more than 50 % of extant vertebrates and are of great evolutionary, ecologic and economic significance, but they are relatively underrepresented in ‘omics studies. Increased availability of transcriptome data for these species will allow researchers to better understand changes in gene expression, and to carry out functional analyses. An international project known as the “Transcriptomes of 1,000 Fishes” (Fish-T1K) project has been established to generate RNA-seq transcriptome sequences for 1,000 diverse species of ray-finned fishes. The first phase of this project has produced transcriptomes from more than 180 ray-finned fishes, representing 142 species and covering 51 orders and 109 families. Here we provide an overview of the goals of this project and the work done so far

Independent optical excitation of distinct neural populations

Optogenetic tools enable examination of how specific cell types contribute to brain circuit functions. A long-standing question is whether it is possible to independently activate two distinct neural populations in mammalian brain tissue. Such a capability would enable the study of how different synapses or pathways interact to encode information in the brain. Here we describe two channelrhodopsins, Chronos and Chrimson, discovered through sequencing and physiological characterization of opsins from over 100 species of alga. Chrimson's excitation spectrum is red shifted by 45 nm relative to previous channelrhodopsins and can enable experiments in which red light is preferred. We show minimal visual system–mediated behavioral interference when using Chrimson in neurobehavioral studies in Drosophila melanogaster. Chronos has faster kinetics than previous channelrhodopsins yet is effectively more light sensitive. Together these two reagents enable two-color activation of neural spiking and downstream synaptic transmission in independent neural populations without detectable cross-talk in mouse brain slice.PostprintPeer reviewe