Foraging Thresholds of Spring Migrating Dabbling Ducks in Central Illinois

The Upper Mississippi River and Great Lakes Region Joint Venture (hereafter, JV) endeavors to model energetic carrying capacity to inform conservation planning in the JV region. Currently, carrying capacity models use estimates of food production (e.g., moist-soil plant seeds) and habitat availability (area). However, estimates of the amount of food exploited by ducks with respect to availability are lacking. The JV currently assumes a conservative foraging threshold of 50% of gross food abundance can be exploited by foraging ducks. Giving-up densities (GUDs), which express the amount of food that remains after organisms cease foraging, can be used to estimate foraging thresholds. We endeavored to provide information to refine the JV’s foraging-threshold estimate through field experiments. We used experimental foraging patches, placed in wetlands used by spring-migrating dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) along the central Illinois River valley (IRV), to estimate the GUD in relation to experimentally manipulated seed density, seed size, seed depth in the substrate, substrate type, and predation risk. We conducted 7 foraging trials in 2010(March and April) and 10 in 2011(February–April), beginning immediately following spring ice-out. Trials were comprised of a series of plastic pans (foraging patches) filled with a combination of substrate (e.g., sand, clay) and seed (Japanese millet and red rice) and placed in wetlands near dabbling duck concentration areas. We monitored trial plots daily for duck use and conducted behavioral observations of ducks near trial plots. Once plots were abandoned by foraging ducks, we removed experimental patches, sorted seed from substrate, and dried and weighed remaining seed to estimate the GUD. Our results differed greatly between years. We had difficulty attracting ducks to trial plots in 2010, and use and seed exploitation was correspondingly low. On average, 521.4kg/ha (20%removed) of seed remained following duck abandonment in 2010. We had greater success attracting ducks to plots in 2011, and this was reflected by lower average GUD(35.8kg/ha, 94% removed). Ducks foraged more efficiently in sand than clay substrates, and better exploited shallowly buried over deeply buried seeds; however, we only collected data on the latter in 2010. Initial seed density decreased the GUD in 2010, but not in 2011, whereas predation risk increased the GUD in 2011 but not in 2010. Finally, ducks favored small seeds in 2010, but large seeds in 2011. Although our annual results contrasted, several of these differences may be explained by foraging theory and variation in migration chronology. Indeed, local food abundance likely varied considerably between years. Other food sources represent missed opportunities to ducks; thus, we expect the GUD to vary with respect to missed opportunity costs. When missed opportunity costs are high(i.e., high local food abundance outside of our test plots), the GUD in experimental patches should be correspondingly high, whereas the GUD will be lower when missed opportunity costs are also lower(i.e., relatively low local food abundance). Additionally, ice-out was nearly 1 month later than average (15 March) in 2010, and approximately average (15 February) in 2011. This difference may have shortened the stopover duration of large-bodied dabbling ducks (e.g., mallard [Anas platyrhynchos]) at our study sites, potentially altering the GUDs. Despite these interannual differences, our results demonstrate that ducks can remove substantially more seed from wetland habitats than the estimate currently used by the JV. Therefore, we suggest the JV consider incorporating the GUD estimates generated by this study into future energetic carrying capacity models. However, revising carrying capacity models would lead to revision of habitat protection and enhancement goals and should be approached cautiously. Perhaps carrying capacity estimates based on the results of our study could be considered as alternate or competing models to the current approach. In this scenario, consideration of formally revising the estimates based on lowered foraging thresholds might be framed in the context of adaptive resource management, whereby support for formal revision could be based on the weight of evidence as our study is replicated or results otherwise supported or refuted.unpublishednot peer reviewedOpe

The association between exaggeration in health related science news and academic press releases: retrospective observational study

Objective To identify the source (press releases or news) of distortions, exaggerations, or changes to the main conclusions drawn from research that could potentially influence a reader’s health related behaviour. Design Retrospective quantitative content analysis. Setting Journal articles, press releases, and related news, with accompanying simulations. Sample Press releases (n=462) on biomedical and health related science issued by 20 leading UK universities in 2011, alongside their associated peer reviewed research papers and news stories (n=668). Main outcome measures Advice to readers to change behaviour, causal statements drawn from correlational research, and inference to humans from animal research that went beyond those in the associated peer reviewed papers. Results 40% (95% confidence interval 33% to 46%) of the press releases contained exaggerated advice, 33% (26% to 40%) contained exaggerated causal claims, and 36% (28% to 46%) contained exaggerated inference to humans from animal research. When press releases contained such exaggeration, 58% (95% confidence interval 48% to 68%), 81% (70% to 93%), and 86% (77% to 95%) of news stories, respectively, contained similar exaggeration, compared with exaggeration rates of 17% (10% to 24%), 18% (9% to 27%), and 10% (0% to 19%) in news when the press releases were not exaggerated. Odds ratios for each category of analysis were 6.5 (95% confidence interval 3.5 to 12), 20 (7.6 to 51), and 56 (15 to 211). At the same time, there was little evidence that exaggeration in press releases increased the uptake of news. Conclusions Exaggeration in news is strongly associated with exaggeration in press releases. Improving the accuracy of academic press releases could represent a key opportunity for reducing misleading health related news

Inequalities' Impacts: State of the Art Review

By way of introduction This report provides the fi rm foundation for anchoring the research that will be performed by the GINI project. It subsequently considers the fi elds covered by each of the main work packages: ● inequalities of income, wealth and education, ● social impacts, ● political and cultural impacts, and ● policy effects on and of inequality. Though extensive this review does not pretend to be exhaustive. The review may be “light” in some respects and can be expanded when the analysis evolves. In each of the four fi elds a signifi cant number of discussion papers will be produced, in total well over 100. These will add to the state of the art while also covering new round and generating results that will be incorporated in the Analysis Reports to be prepared for the work packages. In that sense, the current review provides the starting point. At the same time, the existing body of knowledge is broader or deeper depending on the particular fi eld and its tradition of research. The very motivation of GINI’s focused study of the impacts of inequalities is that a systematic study is lacking and relatively little is known about those impacts. This also holds for the complex collection of, the effects that inequality can have on policy making and the contributions that policies can make to mitigating inequalities but also to enhancing them. By contrast, analyses of inequality itself are many, not least because there is a wide array of inequalities; inequalities have become more easily studied comparatively and much of that analysis has a signifi cant descriptive fl avour that includes an extensive discussion of measurement issues. @GINI hopes to go beyond that and cover the impacts of inequalities at the same time

WHOI Hawaii Ocean Timeseries Station (WHOTS) : WHOTS-6 2009 mooring turnaround cruise report

The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Hawaii Ocean Timeseries Site (WHOTS), 100 km north of Oahu, Hawaii, is intended to provide long-term, high-quality air-sea fluxes as a part of the NOAA Climate Observation Program. The WHOTS mooring also serves as a coordinated part of the Hawaiian Ocean Timeseries (HOT) program, contributing to the goals of observing heat, fresh water and chemical fluxes at a site representative of the oligotrophic North Pacific Ocean. The approach is to maintain a surface mooring outfitted for meteorological and oceanographic measurements at a site near 22.75°N, 158°W by successive mooring turnarounds. These observations will be used to investigate air–sea interaction processes related to climate variability. The first WHOTS mooring (WHOTS-1) was deployed in August 2004. Turnaround cruises for successive moorings (WHOTS-2 through WHOTS-5) have typically been in either June or July. This report documents recovery of the WHOTS-5 mooring and deployment of the sixth mooring (WHOTS-6). The moorings utilize Surlyn foam buoys as the surface element and are outfitted with two Air–Sea Interaction Meteorology (ASIMET) systems. Each ASIMET system measures, records, and transmits via Argos satellite the surface meteorological variables necessary to compute air–sea fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum. The upper 155 m of the mooring is outfitted with oceanographic sensors for the measurement of temperature, conductivity and velocity in a cooperative effort with R. Lukas of the University of Hawaii (UH). A pCO2 system is installed on the buoy in a cooperative effort with Chris Sabine at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. Dr. Frank Bradley, CSIRO, Australia, assisted with meteorological sensor comparisons. A NOAA “Teacher at Sea” and a NOAA “Teacher in the Lab” participated in the cruise. The WHOTS mooring turnaround was done on the University of Hawaii research vessel Kilo Moana, Cruise KM-09-16, by the Upper Ocean Processes Group of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in cooperation with UH and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division (ESRL/PSD). The cruise took place between 9 and 17 July 2009. Operations began with deployment of the WHOTS-6 mooring on 10 July at approximately 22°40.0'N, 157°57.0'W in 4758 m of water. This was followed by meteorological intercomparisons and CTDs at the WHOTS-6 and WHOTS-5 sites. The WHOTS-5 mooring was recovered on 15 July 2009. The Kilo Moana then moved to the HOT central site (22°45.0'N, 158°00.0'W) for CTD casts. This report describes the cruise operations in more detail, as well as some of the in-port operations and pre-cruise buoy preparations.Funding was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Grant No. NA17RJ1223 for the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Ocean Research (CICOR)

Alzheimer’s disease susceptibility gene apolipoprotein e (APOE) and blood biomarkers in UK Biobank (N=395,769)

Background: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative condition where the underlying etiology is still unclear. Investigating the potential influence of apolipoprotein E (APOE), a major genetic risk factor, on common blood biomarkers could provide a greater understanding of the mechanisms of AD and dementia risk. Objective: Our objective was to conduct the largest (to date) single-protocol investigation of blood biomarkers in the context of APOE genotype, in UK Biobank. Methods:After quality control and exclusions, data on 395,769 participants of White European ancestry were available for analysis. Linear regressions were used to test potential associations between APOE genotypes and biomarkers. Results: Several biomarkers significantly associated with APOE ɛ4 ‘risk’ and ɛ2 ‘protective’ genotypes (versus neutral ɛ3/ɛ3). Most associations supported previous data: for example, ɛ4 genotype was associated with elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) (standardized beta [b] = 0.150 standard deviations [SDs] per allele, p < 0.001) and ɛ2 with lower LDL (b = –0.456 SDs, p < 0.001). There were however instances of associations found in unexpected directions: e.g., ɛ4 and increased insulin-like growth factor (IGF-1) (b = 0.017, p < 0.001) where lower levels have been previously suggested as an AD risk factor. Conclusion: These findings highlight biomarker differences in non-demented people at genetic risk for dementia. The evidence herein supports previous hypotheses of involvement from cardiometabolic and neuroinflammatory pathways

Observation of High-Energy Astrophysical Neutrinos in Three Years of IceCube Data

A search for high-energy neutrinos interacting within the IceCube detector between 2010 and 2012 provided the first evidence for a high-energy neutrino flux of extraterrestrial origin. Results from an analysis using the same methods with a third year (2012-2013) of data from the complete IceCube detector are consistent with the previously reported astrophysical flux in the 100 TeV - PeV range at the level of $10^{-8}\, \mathrm{GeV}\, \mathrm{cm}^{-2}\, \mathrm{s}^{-1}\, \mathrm{sr}^{-1}$ per flavor and reject a purely atmospheric explanation for the combined 3-year data at $5.7 \sigma$. The data are consistent with expectations for equal fluxes of all three neutrino flavors and with isotropic arrival directions, suggesting either numerous or spatially extended sources. The three-year dataset, with a livetime of 988 days, contains a total of 37 neutrino candidate events with deposited energies ranging from 30 to 2000 TeV. The 2000 TeV event is the highest-energy neutrino interaction ever observed.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures. Accepted by PRL. The event catalog, event displays, and other data tables are included after the final page of the article. Changed from the initial submission to reflect referee comments, expanding the section on atmospheric backgrounds, and fixes offsets of up to 0.9 seconds in reported event times. Address correspondence to: J. Feintzeig, C. Kopper, N. Whitehor

Tonsillectomy compared with conservative management in patients over 16 years with recurrent sore throat:the NATTINA RCT and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND: The place of tonsillectomy in the management of sore throat in adults remains uncertain.OBJECTIVES: To establish the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tonsillectomy, compared with conservative management, for tonsillitis in adults, and to evaluate the impact of alternative sore throat patient pathways.DESIGN: This was a multicentre, randomised controlled trial comparing tonsillectomy with conservative management. The trial included a qualitative process evaluation and an economic evaluation.SETTING: The study took place at 27 NHS secondary care hospitals in Great Britain.PARTICIPANTS: A total of 453 eligible participants with recurrent sore throats were recruited to the main trial.INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomised on a 1 : 1 basis between tonsil dissection and conservative management (i.e. deferred surgery) using a variable block-stratified design, stratified by (1) centre and (2) severity.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the total number of sore throat days over 24 months following randomisation. The secondary outcome measures were the number of sore throat episodes and five characteristics from Sore Throat Alert Return, describing severity of the sore throat, use of medications, time away from usual activities and the Short Form questionnaire-12 items. Additional secondary outcomes were the Tonsil Outcome Inventory-14 total and subscales and Short Form questionnaire-12 items 6 monthly. Evaluation of the impact of alternative sore throat patient pathways by observation and statistical modelling of outcomes against baseline severity, as assessed by Tonsil Outcome Inventory-14 score at recruitment. The incremental cost per sore throat day avoided, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained based on responses to the Short Form questionnaire-12 items and the incremental net benefit based on costs and responses to a contingent valuation exercise. A qualitative process evaluation examined acceptability of trial processes and ramdomised arms.RESULTS: There was a median of 27 (interquartile range 12-52) sore throats over the 24-month follow-up. A smaller number of sore throats was reported in the tonsillectomy arm [median 23 (interquartile range 11-46)] than in the conservative management arm [median 30 (interquartile range 14-65)]. On an intention-to-treat basis, there were fewer sore throats in the tonsillectomy arm (incident rate ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.65). Sensitivity analyses confirmed this, as did the secondary outcomes. There were 52 episodes of post-operative haemorrhage reported in 231 participants undergoing tonsillectomy (22.5%). There were 47 re-admissions following tonsillectomy (20.3%), 35 relating to haemorrhage. On average, tonsillectomy was more costly and more effective in terms of both sore throat days avoided and quality-adjusted life-years gained. Tonsillectomy had a 100% probability of being considered cost-effective if the threshold for an additional quality-adjusted life year was £20,000. Tonsillectomy had a 69% probability of having a higher net benefit than conservative management. Trial processes were deemed to be acceptable. Patients who received surgery were unanimous in reporting to be happy to have received it.LIMITATIONS: The decliners who provided data tended to have higher Tonsillectomy Outcome Inventory-14 scores than those willing to be randomised implying that patients with a higher burden of tonsillitis symptoms may have declined entry into the trial.CONCLUSIONS: The tonsillectomy arm had fewer sore throat days over 24 months than the conservative management arm, and had a high probability of being considered cost-effective over the ranges considered. Further work should focus on when tonsillectomy should be offered. National Trial of Tonsillectomy IN Adults has assessed the effectiveness of tonsillectomy when offered for the current UK threshold of disease burden. Further research is required to define the minimum disease burden at which tonsillectomy becomes clinically effective and cost-effective.TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as ISRCTN55284102.FUNDING: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/146/06) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 31. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information. </p

Upper limits on the strength of periodic gravitational waves from PSR J1939+2134

The first science run of the LIGO and GEO gravitational wave detectors presented the opportunity to test methods of searching for gravitational waves from known pulsars. Here we present new direct upper limits on the strength of waves from the pulsar PSR J1939+2134 using two independent analysis methods, one in the frequency domain using frequentist statistics and one in the time domain using Bayesian inference. Both methods show that the strain amplitude at Earth from this pulsar is less than a few times $10^{-22}$.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, to appear in the Proceedings of the 5th Edoardo Amaldi Conference on Gravitational Waves, Tirrenia, Pisa, Italy, 6-11 July 200