Realistic assumptions about spatial locations and clustering of premises matter for models of foot-and-mouth disease spread in the United States

Spatially explicit livestock disease models require demographic data for individual farms or premises. In the U.S., demographic data are only available aggregated at county or coarser scales, so disease models must rely on assumptions about how individual premises are distributed within counties. Here, we addressed the importance of realistic assumptions for this purpose. We compared modeling of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks using simple randomization of locations to premises configurations predicted by the Farm Location and Agricultural Production Simulator (FLAPS), which infers location based on features such as topography, land-cover, climate, and roads. We focused on three premises-level Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed models available from the literature, all using the same kernel approach but with different parameterizations and functional forms. By computing the basic reproductive number of the infection (R0) for both FLAPS and randomized configurations, we investigated how spatial locations and clustering of premises affects outbreak predictions. Further, we performed stochastic simulations to evaluate if identified differences were consistent for later stages of an outbreak. Using Ripley's K to quantify clustering, we found that FLAPS configurations were substantially more clustered at the scales relevant for the implemented models, leading to a higher frequency of nearby premises compared to randomized configurations. As a result, R0 was typically higher in FLAPS configurations, and the simulation study corroborated the pattern for later stages of outbreaks. Further, both R0 and simulations exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity in terms of differences between configurations. Thus, using realistic assumptions when de-aggregating locations based on available data can have a pronounced effect on epidemiological predictions, affecting if, where, and to what extent FMD may invade the population. We conclude that methods such as FLAPS should be preferred over randomization approaches

Athletes' experiences of social support during their transition out of elite sport: An interpretive phenomenological analysis

Objectives The sources and types of social support that athletes receive during the transition out of sport have been well documented. However, less is known about how athletes perceive, mobilise, and manage supportive relationships. This study aimed therefore to gain a more comprehensive insight into the ways that social support may influence how athletes adjust to life following retirement from elite sport. Design The study was designed according to the principles of Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. Method Eight former British elite athletes (four male and four female) from eight different Olympic sports were recruited using criterion-based purposive sampling strategies. Data collected using semi-structured interviews were analysed to explore subjective experiences of social support during transition. Results Participants' perception of feeling cared for and understood enabled support to be effective. There were variations in participants' ability to seek out and ask for support and those who found this difficult also found transition a more distressing experience. As transitions progressed, the adjustment process was closely linked to the participant's evolving sense of self. New social relationships and social roles fostered a sense of feeling supported, as well as providing opportunities to support others (e.g., other retired athletes). Providing support helped the participants to experience a sense of growth that facilitated adjustment to life after sport. Conclusions The content of support was largely dependent on context; that is, perceptions of supporters were just as important, if not more so, than specific support exchanges. Stigma around asking for help was a barrier to support seeking

Prolific fruit output by the invasive tree Bellucia pentamera Naudin (Melastomataceae) is enhanced by selective logging disturbance

Selective logging in tropical rain forests may promote population growth of invasive plants. The ability of invaders to respond, specifically in reproductive traits, to increase in resource abundance may allow them to increase their presence in the seed rain of recipient communities. The invasive pioneer tree Bellucia pentamera (Melastomataceae) is currently spreading within Gunung Palung National Park in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. The park has also experienced periods of illegal, small‐scale, selective logging that seem to have facilitated population growth and spread of this invader. We first used fruiting frequency as a proxy for fruit output to make comparisons between B. pentamera and the native tree community of over 200 genera. We then constructed two Generalized Linear Autoregressive Moving Average (GLARMA) models using 13 months of phenology data to predict both fruiting frequency and crop size of B. pentamera under selective logging versus natural treefall disturbance regimes. Bellucia pentamera fruited at considerably higher frequency than all 200 native genera considered. This invader also responded positively to selective logging with both odds of being in fruit and crop sizes at least doubling in logged plots. Prolific seed output of B. pentamera is especially problematic within the lottery competition of tropical rain forest gap tree communities, in which prominence in the seed rain is particularly important. Furthermore, the reproductive response of B. pentamera to selective logging suggests that this harvesting practice may have a considerable role in facilitating this invasion in Southeast Asia.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/144654/1/btp12545.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/144654/2/btp12545_am.pd

Athletes’ retirement from elite sport: A qualitative study of parents and partners’ experiences

Objectives Athletes’ experiences of transition out of elite sport have been well documented. Less is known, however, about how the family members of athletes experience the process of transition. This study aimed to gain an in-depth understanding of parents and partners’ experiences and the way that they managed and interpreted their role in the process of transition. Method Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted with the parents and partners (two male and five female) of seven retired elite athletes from the UK. Data were analysed according to the principles of interpretative phenomenological analysis. Results Parents and partners experienced their own transition as they navigated uncertainty and upheaval in their own lives when the athletes retired. Parents and partners had to renegotiate their identity as they adjusted to changing roles and dynamics in their close relationships. Providing support to the former athletes was complicated by parents and partners’ own difficulties during transition and they often felt unsure about their role as a supporter. Parents and partners often experienced difficulties in their relationship with the athletes during their transition, but things improved as time went by. This was due to better communication and a willingness to share their feelings about their experiences. This helped parents and partners to gain a positive perspective on their transition and a sense that their relationship with the athletes had strengthened and grown. Conclusions Transition is often a shared experience and the findings of the present study underline the value of exploring transition at the level of the family or partnership as well as the individual

Anesthetic Evaluation and Perioperative Management in a Patient with New Onset Mediastinal Mass Syndrome Presenting for Emergency Surgery

Mediastinal mass syndrome (MMS) is a complex case that poses many challenges to the anesthesiologist. The cornerstone of management focuses on the potential hemodynamic changes associated with this syndrome. We describe the anesthetic management of a patient with a previously undiagnosed mediastinal mass presenting for emergency neurosurgical surgery

Use of mental simulations to change theory of planned behaviour variables

Objectives. The predictive validity of the theory of planned behaviour iswell established, but much less is known about: (a) whether there are causal relationships between key components of the model and (b) how to go about changing the theory of planned behaviour variables. This study tested the ability of outcome and process simulations to change variables specified in the theory of planned behaviour in relation to blood donation. Design. Participants (N ¼ 146) were randomized to one of four conditions: outcome simulation only, process simulation only, process-plus-outcome simulation and a distractor control condition. The dependent variables were state anxiety, and intention attitude, subjective norm and perceived control from the theory of planned behaviour. Methods. Participants were asked to empty their mind and visualize themselves: (a) after donating blood (outcome manipulation), (b) preparing to donate blood (process manipulation), (c) both preparing to donate blood and after having donated blood (process-plus-outcome manipulation) or (d) both preparing to get a high mark and after having got a high mark on their course (control condition). Following mental rehearsal, participants completed the dependent variables. Results. There were no main effects of outcome simulation, but process simulation successfully increased intention, subjective norm and perceived control. There was also a significant outcome simulation x process simulation interaction for attitude. The effect of the process manipulation on intention was mediated by subjective norm and perceived control. Conclusions. The findings show promise for the use of mental simulations in changing cognitions and further research is required to extend the present findings to other health behaviours.</p

Spatial Drift Dynamics of Shovelnose Sturgeon and Pallid Sturgeon Prelarvae in the Transition Zone of Ft. Peck Reservoir

Habitats in reservoir headwaters may cause high mortality of sturgeon prelarvae. Short inter-reservoir reaches export drifting prelarvae from hatch locations into reservoirs. However, flooded vegetation could entrain prelarvae. We used 2 day post hatch (dph) shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) and 1-dph pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) to determine the spatial dynamics of drifting prelarvae.We released 220,000 2-dph shovelnose sturgeon 4 km upstream of Ft. Peck Reservoir and 135,000 1-dph pallid sturgeon 2.5 km upstream of the reservoir the following day. We recaptured shovelnose sturgeon prelarvae with nets deployed along three transects of the transition zone and within the headwaters of the reservoir.We sampled 5148.2 m3 of water and recaptured 323 prelarval shovelnose sturgeon for a recapture rate of 0.14 percent. Fifty-nine percent of recaptured prelarvae were recaptured from the thalweg, 12 percent from the flooded vegetation-main channel interface, 9 percent from the channel border, and 19 percent from the zero-velocity area of Ft. Peck Reservoir. We recaptured pallid sturgeon prelarvae with nets deployed along one transect of the transition zone and within the headwaters of the reservoir. We sampled 6608.5 m3 of water and recaptured 397 pallid sturgeon prelarvae for a recapture rate of 0.29 percent. Twenty one percent of prelarvae were recaptured within the thalweg, 0.25 percent were recaptured along the channel margins, and 79 percent from the zero-velocity area of Ft. Peck Reservoir. Although recapture rates were low, the majority of prelarvae were captured in the thalweg and transported to the headwaters of Ft. Peck Reservoir. The drift dynamics observed in this study provide a springboard for further research

Probing the extragalactic fast transient sky at minute timescales with DECam

Searches for optical transients are usually performed with a cadence of days to weeks, optimised for supernova discovery. The optical fast transient sky is still largely unexplored, with only a few surveys to date having placed meaningful constraints on the detection of extragalactic transients evolving at sub-hour timescales. Here, we present the results of deep searches for dim, minute-timescale extragalactic fast transients using the Dark Energy Camera, a core facility of our all-wavelength and all-messenger Deeper, Wider, Faster programme. We used continuous 20s exposures to systematically probe timescales down to 1.17 minutes at magnitude limits $g > 23$ (AB), detecting hundreds of transient and variable sources. Nine candidates passed our strict criteria on duration and non-stellarity, all of which could be classified as flare stars based on deep multi-band imaging. Searches for fast radio burst and gamma-ray counterparts during simultaneous multi-facility observations yielded no counterparts to the optical transients. Also, no long-term variability was detected with pre-imaging and follow-up observations using the SkyMapper optical telescope. We place upper limits for minute-timescale fast optical transient rates for a range of depths and timescales. Finally, we demonstrate that optical $g$-band light curve behaviour alone cannot discriminate between confirmed extragalactic fast transients such as prompt GRB flashes and Galactic stellar flares.Comment: Published in MNRA