The Integrated Calibration Index (ICI) and related metrics for quantifying the calibration of logistic regression models

Assessing the calibration of methods for estimating the probability of the occurrence of a binary outcome is an important aspec

Evaluation of peak-picking algorithms for protein mass spectrometry

Peak picking is an early key step in MS data analysis. We compare three commonly used approaches to peak picking and discuss their merits by means of statistical analysis. Methods investigated encompass signal-to-noise ratio, continuous wavelet transform, and a correlation-based approach using a Gaussian template. Functionality of the three methods is illustrated and discussed in a practical context using a mass spectral data set created with MALDI-TOF technology. Sensitivity and specificity are investigated using a manually defined reference set of peaks. As an additional criterion, the robustness of the three methods is assessed by a perturbation analysis and illustrated using ROC curves

Comparing Local Fitting to Other Automatic Smoothers

In a public service enterprise by Breiman and Peters (1991) various automatic smoothers, such as the supersmoother (SSMU), cross-validated smoothing splines (BART), delete-knot regression splines (DKS) and the cross-validated kernel smooth (KERNEL) were compared by simulation on a variety of sample sizes, noise levels and functions. The intention was to give practitioners guidelines when to use which type of smoother. The given work completes those simulations by including the increasingly popular local fitting approach, that was introduced to the statistical literature by Cleveland (1979). Fedorov et al. (1993) have modified the technique in order to take account possible misspecification bias, termed 'optimized moving local regression', and here we use an automated version (by crossvalidation) of it as given in Fedorov et al. (1994). (author's abstract)Series: Forschungsberichte / Institut für Statisti

Communicating population health statistics through graphs: a randomised controlled trial of graph design interventions

BACKGROUND: Australian epidemiologists have recognised that lay readers have difficulty understanding statistical graphs in reports on population health. This study aimed to provide evidence for graph design improvements that increase comprehension by non-experts. METHODS: This was a double-blind, randomised, controlled trial of graph-design interventions, conducted as a postal survey. Control and intervention participants were randomly selected from telephone directories of health system employees. Eligible participants were on duty at the listed location during the study period. Controls received a booklet of 12 graphs from original publications, and intervention participants received a booklet of the same graphs with design modifications. A questionnaire with 39 interpretation tasks was included with the booklet. Interventions were assessed using the ratio of the prevalence of correct responses given by the intervention group to those given by the control group for each task. RESULTS: The response rate from 543 eligible participants (261 intervention and 282 control) was 67%. The prevalence of correct answers in the control group ranged from 13% for a task requiring knowledge of an acronym to 97% for a task identifying the largest category in a pie chart. Interventions producing the greatest improvement in comprehension were: changing a pie chart to a bar graph (3.6-fold increase in correct point reading), changing the y axis of a graph so that the upward direction represented an increase (2.9-fold increase in correct judgement of trend direction), a footnote to explain an acronym (2.5-fold increase in knowledge of the acronym), and matching the y axis range of two adjacent graphs (two-fold increase in correct comparison of the relative difference in prevalence between two population subgroups). CONCLUSION: Profound population health messages can be lost through use of overly technical language and unfamiliar statistical measures. In our study, most participants did not understand age standardisation and confidence intervals. Inventive approaches are required to address this problem

Estimating the Under-Five Mortality Rate Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Time Series Model

Background: Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for a reduction in the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, which corresponds to an annual rate of decline of 4.4%. The United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation estimates under-five mortality in every country to measure progress. For the majority of countries, the estimates within a country are based on the assumption of a piece-wise constant rate of decline. Methods and Findings: This paper proposes an alternative method to estimate under-five mortality, such that the underlying rate of change is allowed to vary smoothly over time using a time series model. Information about the average rate of decline and changes therein is exchanged between countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Cross-validation exercises suggest that the proposed model provides credible bounds for the under-five mortality rate that are reasonably well calibrated during the observation period. The alternative estimates suggest smoother trends in under-five mortality and give new insights into changes in the rate of decline within countries. Conclusions: The proposed model offers an alternative modeling approach for obtaining estimates of under-five mortality which removes the restriction of a piece-wise linear rate of decline and introduces hierarchy to exchange information between countries. The newly proposed estimates of the rate of decline in under-5 mortality and the uncertaint

Visual scanning as a reference framework for interactive representation design

International audienceWhen designing a representation, the designer implicitly formulates a sequence of visual tasks required to understand and use the representation effectively. This paper aims at making the sequence of visual tasks explicit in order to help designers elicit their design choices. In particular, we present a set of concepts to systematically analyse what a user must theoretically do to decipher representations. The analysis consists of a decomposition of the activity of scanning into elementary visualization operations. We show how the analysis applies to various existing representations, and how expected benefits can be expressed in terms of elementary operations. The set of elementary operations form the basis of a shared language for representation designers. The decomposition highlights the challenges encountered by a user when deciphering a representation and helps designers to exhibit possible flaws in their design, justify their choices, and compare designs. We also show that interaction with a representation can be considered as facilitation to perform the elementary operations

Partial least square regression applied to the QTLMAS 2010 dataset

Detection of genomic regions affecting traits is a goal in many genetic studies. Studies applying distinct methods for detection of these regions, called quantitative trait loci (QTL), have been described, ranging from single marker regression [1] to methods that enable to fit several markers simultaneously [2,3]. Simultaneously fitting all markers leads to more accurate detection of QTL compared to independent fitting of single markers in a regression model when there is linkage disequilibrium (LD) between the genomic regions that affect the trait but comes at the cost of increased computational requirements [2]. Partial least square regression (PLSR) is one method for simultaneously fitting multiple markers and was applied by Bjornstad et al. for detection of QTL [3]. An interesting characteristic of PLSR its straightforward application of to simultaneous analysis of data of multiple traits [3]. The objectives of this study were to use PLSR to search for QTL and to estimate breeding values in the dataset of the QTLMAS 2010 worksho

The role of parental achievement goals in predicting autonomy-supportive and controlling parenting

Although autonomy-supportive and controlling parenting are linked to numerous positive and negative child outcomes respectively, fewer studies have focused on their determinants. Drawing on achievement goal theory and self-determination theory, we propose that parental achievement goals (i.e., achievement goals that parents have for their children) can be mastery, performance-approach or performance-avoidance oriented and that types of goals predict mothers' tendency to adopt autonomy-supportive and controlling behaviors. A total of 67 mothers (aged 30-53 years) reported their goals for their adolescent (aged 13-16 years; 19.4 % girls), while their adolescent evaluated their mothers' behaviors. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that parental performance-approach goals predict more controlling parenting and prevent acknowledgement of feelings, one autonomy-supportive behavior. In addition, mothers who have mastery goals and who endorse performance-avoidance goals are less likely to use guilt-inducing criticisms. These findings were observed while controlling for the effect of maternal anxiety

Anisotropic Radial Layout for Visualizing Centrality and Structure in Graphs

This paper presents a novel method for layout of undirected graphs, where nodes (vertices) are constrained to lie on a set of nested, simple, closed curves. Such a layout is useful to simultaneously display the structural centrality and vertex distance information for graphs in many domains, including social networks. Closed curves are a more general constraint than the previously proposed circles, and afford our method more flexibility to preserve vertex relationships compared to existing radial layout methods. The proposed approach modifies the multidimensional scaling (MDS) stress to include the estimation of a vertex depth or centrality field as well as a term that penalizes discord between structural centrality of vertices and their alignment with this carefully estimated field. We also propose a visualization strategy for the proposed layout and demonstrate its effectiveness using three social network datasets.Comment: Appears in the Proceedings of the 25th International Symposium on Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2017