Bootstrapped Fractional Designs Applied to Models with Both Mixture and Process Variables

Mixture variables are unique as the components must sum to 1, causing problems when there is interaction between mixture and process variables. The best model is the fully linearized model, but this can get large quickly. We began by comparing models on multiple data sets. These models include linear and nonlinear models. After seeing that nonlinear models appear to be the best alternatives, we used the systematically selected fractions of each data set in order to obtain an in and out of sample RMSE. This allows us to see if there is evidence of overfitting, how well the model predicts out of sample, and how well the model fits the training data. To increase the number of data points, we used bootstrapping to create a random sample that is proportional to the size of the full data set. The resulting RMSEs indicated that Zhong’s model and the fully linearized model had extreme evidence of overfitting. Thus, we considered the other 3 models as better options. There was evidence of overfitting for these models with two data sets. The models seemed to do better for the Prescott data, which is interesting as it is the largest data set and the only data set where the mixture variables have constraints and the process variables have 3 levels. Within the Prescott data sets, the SHB nonlinear appears to perform the best with the least evidence of overfitting, so we conclude that this is in general the best alternative to the fully linearized model

Abused Elderly Who Refuse Service Offers: A Population-At-Risk

The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.Presenter: Linda Vinton, Ph.D. Candidate, School of Social Work, University of Wisconsin-Madison - "Abused Elderly Who Refuse Service Offers: A Population-At-Risk".The Ohio State University College of Social Wor

Resilience and Coping for the Healthcare Community: A Post-disaster Group Work Intervention for Healthcare and Social Service Providers

Healthcare and social service providers play a critical role in supporting children, families and communities immediately after a disaster and throughout the recovery process. These providers, who may have also experienced the disaster and related losses, are among the least likely to receive mental health or psychological support which can result in burnout, secondary traumatic stress, depression and anxiety. Accessible psychosocial interventions designed for healthcare and social service providers in the aftermath of a disaster are therefore critical to recovery and to ensure providers are available to support families after future disasters. The purpose of this article is to describe Resilience and Coping for the Healthcare Community (RCHC), a manualized group work intervention for social service and health care providers who have provided care to children, families, and communities after a natural disaster. RCHC is currently being delivered in response to Hurricanes Harvey and Maria, storms that struck the gulf coast of the United States and the island of Puerto Rico in 2017. RCHC has also been used in the areas affected by Hurricane Sandy (New York and New Jersey), in Shreveport, Louisiana following severe flooding and in Saipan after a Typhoon devastated the island. Healthcare and social service providers who have received RCHC include the staff of Federally Qualified Health Centers and other community clinics, Disaster Case Managers, Child Care Providers, Mental Health Providers and First Responders. The health and wellbeing of these providers directly impacts their ability to provide quality care to families in their communities. This article presents the theoretical foundations of the RCHC intervention, describes the intervention in detail, provides a description of early and ongoing evaluation studies, and discusses the conditions for both implementation of RCHC and training of RCHC providers. The RCHC psychoeducational intervention provides education on, and strategies for, acute, chronic and post-traumatic stress, coping, and resilience, tailored for the needs of the helping professions. Through the use of individual and collective processing, healthcare and social service providers participating in RCHC develop both individual and collective coping plans. Considering the short and long-term impacts of disasters on communities’ essential healthcare and social service workforce, interventions like RCHC stand to provide essential benefits, including retention and wellbeing of providers of family services

\u3cb\u3eBook Review:\u3c/b\u3e \u3cem\u3eConquering the Content: A Step-by-Step Guide to Online Course Design\u3c/em\u3e by Robin Smith (Jossey-Bass, 2008)

Excerpt: Had Robin Smith’s book been available a decade ago, I could have avoided countless hours spent since then in updating, revising, and re-envisioning the web pages supporting my courses. Even with years of experience creating web sites for my courses, I found ideas and insights that will help me continue to improve the ongoing processes of course development and maintenance

The Automobile: An American Icon

Today’s different world creates new problems that could jeopardize the car’s status as an American icon. In recent years the automobile has suffered. The combination of global warming and skyrocketing gas prices paint a bleak and unpromising future for the car. In order to comprehend the extent of the problem, we must confront our obsession with the automobile and understand why it has achieved such an iconic status in American culture. How can something as simple as four wheels and an engine mean so much? Luke Vinton is a rising junior and a business marketing major. He is a musician and dabbles in cinematography and video editing projects with his friends. A self-admitted dork, he is fascinated by all the mundane things in life and why they have value. He attributes his passion for explanation to the curiosity of his own friends and family. Their reluctance to accept anything at face value has taught him to open his eyes when looking at the world. He hopes people in the future will learn to not take things for granted and instead appreciate what they have

Notes on the Biology of Clastoptera distincta Doering, the Dwarf Mistletoe Spittlebug (Hemiptera: Cercopoidea: Clastopteridae)

Larven der Schaumzikade Clastoptera distincta Doering (Hemiptera: Cercopoidea: Clastopteridae) sind Xylemsaft-Hyperparasiten an der Mistelart Arceuthobium vaginatum subsp. cryptopodum, einem Parasiten an Pinus ponderosa im Südwesten der Vereinigten Staaten. Die Adulten von C.distincta, die direct an P. ponderosa leben, sind polymorph bzgl. dreiverschiedener Farbformen. Das Saugen an Misteln im Larvalstadium könnte eine Anpassung an das regionale Monsunklima sein, das es den Schaumzikaden ermöglicht, von der hohen Transpirationrate und Xylemsaftflüssen während der Trockenphase im Frühsommer zu profitieren, wenn die Transpiration in der eigentlichen Nahrungspflanze eingeschränkt ist.Nymphs of the spittlebug Clastoptera distincta Doering (Hemiptera: Cercopoidea: Clastopteridae) are xylem sap hyperparasites of the mistletoe Arceuthobium vaginatum subsp. cryptopodum, a parasite of Pinus ponderosa in the southwestern United States. C. distincta adults, which live directly on P. ponderosa, are polymorphic for three distinct color forms. Mistletoe feeding in the nymphal stage may be an adaptation to the regional monsoon climate, permitting the spittlebugs to take advantage of high mistletoe transpiration and xylem flow rates during the early summer dry season, when transpiration in the host trees is curtailed

The Mountain People: Northern Laos and Thailand, 1962-1966 (Volume 3)

The photographs in this album are primarily photographs featuring Vint Lawrence; either portraits or images of him participating in events, such as a Baci ceremony, or posing with other colleagues and acquaintances from his time in Laos. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.https://digitalcommons.csp.edu/lawrence-scrapbooks/1002/thumbnail.jp

How Eco-Evolutionary Interactions Mitigate Climate Risk: A Theoretical Perspective

Accelerated rates of climate change are expected to either lead to adaptation and persistence, or extinction. Traditionally, ecological models predict extinction risk based on how environmental change alters a population’s intrinsic growth rate (r). However, these predictions often ignore the potential for evolutionary rescue, whereby populations avoid extinction via adaptive evolution. This dissertation sets out to address what allows rapid evolution to rescue natural populations in the face of environmental change. Our current lack of understanding of the role of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, and their combined effect on population responses to climate change, demands further theoretical and experimental work to investigate these processes. I utilize theoretical modeling approaches to investigate the dynamics of small populations that have been reduced due to environmental change, and what allows them to rebound and avoid extinction. (1) Successful evolutionary tracking depends on how selection acts on key life history traits. The environment may impose selective pressure on specific demographic rates (birth and death) rather than directly on r (the difference between the birth and death rates). Therefore, when considering the potential for evolutionary rescue, populations with the same r can have different abilities to persist amidst environmental change. We cannot adequately understand evolutionary rescue without accounting for demography, and interactions between density dependence and environmental change. Using stochastic birth-death population models, I found evolutionary rescue to be more likely when environmental change alters the birth rather than death rate. Furthermore, species that evolve via density-dependent selection are less vulnerable to extinction than species that undergo selection independent of population density. Resolving the key demographic factors affected by environmental change can lead to an understanding of how populations evolve to avoid extinction. By incorporating these considerations into our models we can better predict how species will respond to climate change. (2) Propensity for evolutionary rescue varies in complex environments. Natural populations may experience a diversity of selection pressures across space and time due to differences in spatial and temporal environments, as well as in the competition they are subject to. I develop a spatially explicit individual based model to determine how the slope, spatial heterogeneity and patchiness of an environmental gradient as well as the dispersal ability of individuals will alter population extinction risk across a landscape due to environmental change. We find that as expected, the larger the magnitude of environmental change, the more likely a population will go extinct. Furthermore, there is a complex interplay between the spatial scenarios of gradient steepness, patchiness, and heterogeneity. Components that tend to encourage genetic diversity via local adaption to spatially diverse landscapes tended to allow for persistence. But, there are notable exceptions to this general rule. Too much heterogeneity leads populations to being maladapted to their local environment. In this case, landscape patchiness can serve to allow for environmental refugia. Thus we show that the spatial landscape significantly alters probability of evolutionary rescue, highlighting the importance of spatial realism in predictive models. (3) Resource scarcity plays a vital role in thermal performance amidst changing temperatures. Consumers and resources both have characteristic responses to temperature change, but how these temperature responses interact in the context of consumer-resource dynamics and adaptive evolution has not been well established. We utilize a consumer resource model to assess how communities will respond to temperature change. Our models demonstrate that within the consumer thermal niche, performance and equilibrium biomass differ. This implies that estimates of thermal stress and extinction risk based solely upon the individual thermal performance is problematic. We find that as consumers reduce a resource, there is adaptive pressure for that resource to grow successfully at lower temperatures where the consumer uptake rate is lower. Lastly we assess the importance of thermal asymmetry of the consumer and resource. If the resource’s thermal performance shifts to warmer temperatures, the consumer’s persistence in low temperatures decreases to reflect the effect of resource limitation at low temperatures. Likewise if the resource’s thermal performance shifts to colder temperatures, the consumer’s ability to persist in the hottest temperatures also decreases. Thus we must consider the dynamic interplay between temperature and interacting species as this can determine species response to temperature.Overall, we find that the assumptions we make when modeling environmental change in the life history of individuals, species interactions, and their spatial landscape have significant effects on species ability to survive environmental change. We provide generalizable frameworks to improve our ability to understand and predict how natural populations will respond to climate change