Building in an Evaluation Component for Active Labor Market Programs: A Practitioner's Guide

The guide outlines the main evaluation challenges associated with ALMP’s, and shows how to obtain rigorous impact estimates using two leading evaluation approaches. The most credible and straightforward evaluation method is a randomized design, in which a group of potential participants is randomly divided into a treatment and a control group. Random assignment ensures that the two groups would have had similar experiences in the post-program period in the absence of the program intervention. The observed post-program difference therefore yields a reliable estimate of the program impact. The second approach is a difference in differences design that compares the change in outcomes between the participant group and a selected comparison group from before to after the completion of the program. In general the outcomes of the comparison group may differ from the outcomes of the participant group, even in the absence of the program intervention. If the difference observed prior to the program would have persisted in the absence of the program, however, then the change in the outcome gap between the two groups yields a reliable estimate of the program impact. This guideline reviews the various steps in the design and implementation of ALMP’s, and in subsequent analysis of the program data, that will ensure a rigorous and informative impact evaluation using either of these two techniques.active labor market programs, policy evaluation, randomized trials, difference in difference, average treatment effect on the treated, development effectiveness

¿Qué Familias Están en Condiciones de Salir del Programa Familias en Acción?

La mayoría de los Programas focalizados no poseen reglas claras sobre la salida de beneficiarios cuando mejoran sus condiciones de vida. En algunos las condiciones de salida son iguales a las condiciones de entrada, sin consideraciones sobre la vulnerabilidad que los hogares poseen para volver catalogados como beneficiarios en el futuro una vez retirados. Este último es el caso del Programa de Transferencias Condicionadas de Dinero ? Familias en Acción, en donde el ingreso de las familias se realiza por medio de la clasificación basada en el SISBEN. En el presente estudio se propone un mecanismo para identificar a las familias que han mejorado su clasificación socioeconómica en este Programa, pasando a un nivel SISBEN igual o superior a 2, y que además posean menores probabilidades de volver a caer en las condiciones de vida que propiciaron su ingreso. Los resultados muestran que tan solo cerca del 31% de las familias que poseen las dos condiciones anteriores pueden ser retiradas con el menor riesgo de que vuelvan a ser Nivel 1. (...)¿Qué Familias Están en Condiciones de Salir del Programa Familias en Acción?

IMPACTO DE LOS INCENTIVOS PÚBLICOS EN EDUCACIÓN SOBRE LA PARTICIPACIÓN LABORAL DE LOS TRABAJADORES EN COLOMBIA

Los estudios empíricos que tratan sobre la participación laboral en Colombia muestran que épocas de poco crecimiento económico o recesión aumenta el número de trabajadores secundarios (niños o amas de casa) que deciden ofrecer su fuerza de trabajo. Los hogares más vulnerables a esta situación son aquellos en donde alguno de sus integrantes pierde su actual ocupación y sus ingresos tienden a disminuir. El siguiente estudio tiene como objeto mostrar qué tanto puede disminuir la probabilidad que un trabajador secundario ofrezca su fuerza de trabajo si recibe algún incentivo público en educación (becas, subsidios, créditos), conel uso de los modelos Probit de participación laboral y el uso del Propensity Score Matching. Los resultados muestran que esta clase de incentivos son efectivos para los hombres entre los 12 – 16 años de edad y entre los 12 – 22 años en el caso de las mujeres. También es discriminado el análisis según el número de desocupados por hogar y por medio de la construcción de diez percentiles del Índice de Condiciones de Vida (ICV–2003). La implicaciones en política económica son bastante relevantes puesto que la política fiscal en educación puede ser enfocada hacia la ampliación de estos incentivos, para así evitar que en épocas en las que el ingresos de los hogares disminuye los individuos que se encuentren econonómicamente inactivos no ofrezcan su fuerza de trabajo y lograr de esta manera que no empeoren los indicadores de los mercados laborales (tasa de desocupación y subempleo).Participación laboral; Capital Humano; Índice de Condiciones de Vida; salario de reserva; Clasificación económica de la población; modelos Probit; Propensity Score Matching.

ISH: Hacia una Medida de la Satisfacción de los Hogares desde el Punto de Vista de la Oferta de Trabajo.

El estudio de las preferencias es uno de los temas menos tratados por la econometría aplicada. En el presente artículo se pretende realizar una aproximación translogarítimica de las preferencias por medio de la construcción de un Índice de Satisfacción de los Hogares (ISH) con base al módulo de condiciones del hogar de la Encuesta de calidad de Vida realizada por el DANE en abril de 2003. El ISH es utilizado para observar cómo son las disposiciones de oferta de trabajo de los hogares desde el punto de vista de la teoría neoclásica. Se discriminan los hogares según estrato socioeconómico en una muestra para la ciudad de Bogotá. Al final se puede concluir que los hogares que tienen más disposición a trabajar son los pertenecientes al estrato alto. Las causas de lo anterior son estudiadas a fondo realizando una revisión teórica y una justificación según los datos de la mencionada encuesta.Satisfacción, preferencias, trabajo, oferta de trabajo, estratos, encuesta de calidad de vida de colombia, ISH, ICV

Evolución de la deuda privada en Colombia, 2006-2011

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo describir la evolución del mercado de deuda corporativa en la economía colombiana en el periodo comprendido entre los años 2006 y 2011. Para este propósito, se realiza un análisis estadístico descriptivo y econométrico sobre el comportamiento y la dinámica de este mercado. Se encontró que existe gran dificultad para llevar a cabo la colocación de emisiones con baja calificación y de cuantías pequeñas, se considera necesario llevar a cabo ciertos cambios institucionales que potencialicen el mercado y de esta forma contribuir con el desarrollo de la economía.27 p.The objective of this report is to investigate the evolution of corporate debt in the Colombian economy between 2006 and 2011. This investigation is focused on a descriptive, technical and econometric, analysis of the markets’ dynamics and behavior. It can be noted that there is some difficulty in the issuance of bonds of low denomination and low qualification. It would be therefore necessary to carry out certain institutional changes that could potentially augment the size of the bond market and thus contribute to the economic development of Colombia

Quenched disorder forbids discontinuous transitions in nonequilibrium low-dimensional systems

Quenched disorder affects significantly the behavior of phase transitions. The Imry-Ma-Aizenman-Wehr-Berker argument prohibits first-order or discontinuous transitions and their concomitant phase coexistence in low-dimensional equilibrium systems in the presence of random fields. Instead, discontinuous transitions become rounded or even continuous once disorder is introduced. Here we show that phase coexistence and first-order phase transitions are also precluded in nonequilibrium low-dimensional systems with quenched disorder: discontinuous transitions in two-dimensional systems with absorbing states become continuous in the presence of quenched disorder. We also study the universal features of this disorder-induced criticality and find them to be compatible with the universality class of the directed percolation with quenched disorder. Thus, we conclude that first-order transitions do not exist in low-dimensional disordered systems, not even in genuinely nonequilibrium systems with absorbing states

Editorial

Ingeniero Industria

Seismic Microzonation of the Texcoco Lake Area, Mexico

This paper presents some of the most relevant results obtained from field, laboratory and analytical investigations aimed at characterizing the seismic environment prevailing at the Texcoco lake region, in the Valley of Mexico, with the goal of developing a microzonation. In particular, this study focuses on an area of 19.0 by 5.5 km2, which has been instrumented with four seismological stations: TXSO, TXS1, TXS2 and TXCH that have recorded ground motions for at least 15 years. Field investigations were conducted to define the subsoil conditions underneath each station. Dynamic testing in these high plasticity clays was carried out to establish the variation of shear stiffness and damping with strain level. Ground motion definition was achieved through empirically derived response spectra obtained from sets of earthquake ground motions recorded at a nearby station located in soft soil, which were deconvolved to the base rock. An statistical analysis using random shear wave velocity profiles and an stochastic site response analysis was used to developed sets of response spectra to reduce uncertainties associated with soil properties determination and seismic environment characterization. The final proposed response spectra for each studied point were developed from the envelope plus one standard deviation computed at each ground motion station. These spectra show good agreement both in frequency content and spectral ordinates with those obtained directly from measurements taken at these seismological stations. Finally equations to construct the proposed response spectra were proposed

Poverty dynamics and graduation from conditional cash transfers: a transition model for Mexico’s Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera program

The effects of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) on poverty and well-being have been widely studied. However, there is limited knowledge on how a CCT should respond to the dynamics of poverty. How should program administrators treat beneficiaries that exit poverty in period t-1, but exhibit a high probability of falling into poverty in period t? This is a relevant, yet unanswered question. This paper provides an analysis of the implications of poverty dynamics in the implementation of graduation strategies of CCTs, taking Mexico’s Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera (POP) program as reference case. We propose a Markovian transition model that allows to control for unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence, and attrition. The model provides a framework for a generic graduation condition that can be applied to cash transfer programs that follow well-defined eligibility income thresholds. Overall, we find that only one-third of program beneficiaries that were poor in 2002 exhibited low probabilities of becoming poor in 2009–12 and therefore could be regarded as true ‘graduates’ of the program. We also find that the ‘recertification’ process of POP—which takes place every three years—would be more efficient if it took place every 3.7 and 5.1 years in urban and rural areas, respectively

La Lisozima Como Conservante Natural En La Elaboración De Quesos Semi-Maduros

In the IASA II Molestina Dairy Plant, different levels of lysozyme were evaluated as a natural preservative (5, 10 and 15%). This replaces the chemical preservative (sorbic acid E300) in the production of Andean cheese (“semimaduro”). By using 256 liters of milk divided into 32 experimental units of 4 liters each, the experimental results were subjected to analysis of variance and separation of means by the Waller-Duncan test. It also went through the Test of Rating Test for organoleptic characteristics. Determining the levels of lysozyme did not affect the physico- chemical properties of cheese. It presents an average content of 37.46% moisture, 26.53% protein, 25.53% fat, 5.65% ash, and a slightly acidic pH (6.04). The preference of consumers according to the organoleptic characteristics shows that there were no differences between cheeses, receiving a score of Very Good. The initial microbiological tests identified the absence of total coliforms, molds and yeasts, which is in contrast to the 21 days of storage (shelf life). Lower amounts of microorganisms increases the levels of lysozyme, and provides better Employment answers level of 15%. The highest yield (10.25%), as well as lower production costs (4.89 USD per kg), were obtained when we prepared the semi-mature cheese with 15% of lysozyme in place of chemical preservatives. So this level is recommended in the development of Andean type cheeses