Changing climate, changing decisions : understanding climate adaptation decision-making and the way science supports it

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Ambiente, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2015The current pace of global mitigation efforts brings about growing concerns about climate change impacts. In turn, even in developed countries, most societies are often vulnerable to present day climate and will most likely see those vulnerabilities exacerbated by future climate trends and extremes, accentuating the need for a coherent response through adaptation efforts. Such efforts will always have to be developed in face of uncertainty. The deeply rooted uncertainties that underpin climate change adaptation as a scientific, political and societal endeavour will always be a part of adaptation decision-making processes. It is fundamental that decision-makers and scientific communities find common ground that allows to exchange the necessary knowledge on “why to adapt”, but also to develop the required frameworks, methods and tools that sustain a clearer understanding of “what to adapt” and “how to adapt” under long-term, uncertain circumstances. This thesis is about climate adaptation decisions and decision-making processes, and how science supports and equips them to handle uncertainty. The assessment and conclusions presented in this thesis reflect research that was transdisciplinary in nature and that included working close to decision-makers in their real-life contexts. The main objective of this thesis is to enrich the understanding of how adaptation decision-making takes place in those contexts and how science can better support it in dealing with associated uncertainties. Three key research questions underpin this thesis. The first deals with the issue whether transdisciplinarity in adaptation research is a fundamental condition for practical adaptation decision-making. This thesis argues that although transdisciplinarity may be a necessary condition, it is not a sufficient one to assure that “good” or “better” real-life adaptation decisions are made. Participatory, practice-oriented research is of outmost importance, but it has to be complemented by a more fundamental inquiry and concept development from disciplinary sciences and with changes in the operational and/or normative standards associated with long-lasting decisions. Transdisciplinarity has been framed as a potential solution for the gap between knowledge production and practical adaptation action. However, a more fundamental change in the way adaptation decision-making processes are framed, one that goes beyond the simple assimilation of the perceived needs of decision-makers, may be required to bridge that challenge. The second question reflects the current gap in the understanding of what climate adaptation decisions are and how they relate to existing or perceived uncertainties. Using a set of selected case-studies spanning across a wide range of sectors and different real-life decisions, this thesis reviewed and analysed how adaptation decisions are being made in practice, their knowledge requirements, and the implications that dealing with uncertainty has regarding their outcomes. In order to consider all steps of the adaptation decision-making process, interviews were conducted with both decision-makers and those involved in supporting them via science and other activities. Results demonstrate the importance of considering both dimensions and respective contexts in dealing with uncertainty. However, results also suggest that uncertainty-management is not a guarantee of action, and that the current framing of adaptation decision-making is still very much tied to a rational-linear view, both from the policy and decision-making perspective, as in the science and decision-support standpoint. This leads to a third research question that aims to identify if current adaptation decision-making frameworks are well equipped to characterise, support adaptation and enhance adaptation action under uncertainty. In the context of this thesis, a decision-making framework is a holistic set of concepts, perspectives or approaches that support the entire adaptation decisionmaking process. This thesis argues that such frameworks should necessarily include and integrate all dimensions that naturally occur in an adaptation process namely, the decision-objectives, the decision-support, the decision-making and the respective decision-outcomes. Current frameworks have been mostly framed from a research and expert perspective that follows a rational approach to decision-making under uncertainty. Under such perspective, it is assumed that by providing information and decision-support practical adaptation decisions will be made. This appears to be sufficient to deal with strategic decisions that look into improving adaptive capacity, but seems no longer fit-for-purpose when it comes to operational decisions, the type generally required to advance vulnerability-reducing actions.Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c, project Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Modelling - CCIAM); Wageningen University and Research Centr

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Despite the Paris Agreement target of holding global temperature increases 1.5 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios going beyond 4 °C are becoming increasingly plausible. HECC may imply increasing climate variability and extremes as well as the triggering of tipping points, posing further difficulties for adaptation. This paper compares the outcomes of four concurrent European case studies (EU, Hungary, Portugal, and Scotland) that explore the individual and institutional conditions, and the information used to underpin adaptation-related decision-making in the context of HECC. The focus is on (i) whether HECC scenarios are used in current adaptation-related decision-making processes; (ii) the role of uncertainty and how climate and non-climate information is used (or not) in these processes; and (iii) the information types (including socio-economic drivers) commonly used and their limitations in relation to HECC scenarios. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability or distant occurrence and do not routinely account for HECC scenarios within existing climate actions. Decision-makers also perceive non-climate drivers as at least as important, in many cases more important, than climate change alone. Whilst more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts is needed, climate change uncertainty is not a significant barrier to decision-making. Further understanding of individual and institutional challenges brought about by the ‘squeeze’ between adapting to HECC scenarios or to lower levels of temperature change (as those agreed in Paris) is essential to better contextualise the use of climate change information.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Mechanical joining methods for additive manufactured assembly tools

The use of additive manufacturing (AM) processes is growing in the manufacturing industry. One application with great potential for using these processes is the manufacture of assembly tools for a high-ly competitive markets, such as the automotive industry. A critical aspect of the assembly tool design is its capability to incorporate modifications even at a late stage of its development in very short time. In many cases, these modifications are achieved using metal inserts in the polymeric tool, which allow to add new geometric features. This capability increases the usefulness and versatility of components produced by AM and compensate for potential shortcomings of using additive mate-rials. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the potential use of accessories in additive manufactured com-ponents. In addition, the effect of different percentages of infill tool material on the joining quality of accesso-ries is evaluated. This is done by performing a screw pull-out test on a ABS ESD-7 part, produced by fused deposition modelling. The following different joining solutions were compared and studied in this work: em-bedded inserts, glue, heating processes, pressure (Tap-in) and creation of threads, such as, printing the thread directly and machining the thread onto the material.Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalização - COMPETE 2020, Projeto nº 002814, Ref. POCI-01-0247-FEDER-002814 entre a Univ. do Minho e a Bosc

Response of fabric insert injection overmolding PP based composites subjected to single and muti-impact: Impact response of fabric insert injection overmolding PP based composites

This paper presents the results of a current study on the development and impact response of composite plates manufactured by injection overmolding on the two sides of a single reinforcement fibre mat. The injection polymer is a talc-filled polypropylene, nowadays used for structural purposes. Three configurations with different insert fibre mats were used: Kevlar, biaxial and multiaxial glass fibre mats. The parameters studied were the fibre mat type and the impact energy. For single impact tests, it was concluded that the highest impact energy required to achieve impactor perforation is obtained with Kevlar insert, while the highest percentage of energy recovered is achieved with biaxial glass fibre netting. Kevlar insert also allows for the maximum impact stiffness. For the multi-impact tests, the recovered energy and the dynamic stiffness show the same tendencies of the single impact tests. On low energy impacts, the effect of the insert fibre and of the previous impact are quite reduced, while for impact energies above 6J, previous impacts reduce significantly the recovered energy and the impact energy for which the perforation was achieved

Framework for Climate Change Adaptation of Agriculture and Forestry in Mediterranean Climate Regions

Planning the adaptation of agriculture and forestry landscapes to climate change remains challenging due to the need for integrating substantial amounts of information. This information ranges from climate scenarios, geographical site information, socio-economic data and several possible adaptation measures. Thus, there is an urgent need to have a framework that is capable of organizing adaptation strategies and measures in the agriculture and forestry sectors in Mediterranean climatic regions. Additionally, this framework should provide a cause effect relation with climate vulnerability to adequately support the development of adaptation planning at municipal and local (farm) level. In this context, we propose to test and evaluate a framework for climate adaptation of the agriculture and forestry sectors, based on the local causal-effect relation between adaptation strategies and measures and the level of vulnerability reduction achieved for Mediterranean areas. The framework was developed based on the combination of the DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses) and Vulnerability frameworks and reviewed 162 practical adaptation measures, further organized into strategies, complemented by a set of efficacy indicators. The framework was tested with 70 stakeholders in six stakeholder workshops for the planning of two farms and one municipal climate adaptation study, that are now in actual implementation and monitoring. The framework is composed by a set of eight adaptation strategies in which adaptation measures are clustered and assessed using efficacy indicators. In the evaluation of the adaptation framework, 96% of stakeholders considered its content as good or very good and 89% considered the final outcomes as good or very good. Finally, the framework was also used to assess and compare the adaptation strategies and measures presented in the climate adaptation plans of the three case studies. On average, 52.2% of the adaptation measures selected by the three case studies are dedicated to Ecosystem Resilience, 30.9% to Adaptive Capacity, 9.1% to Microclimates, 7.4% to Protection, and 0.3% to Mitigation strategies. This framework was considered effective in supporting adaptation planning at farm and municipal levels and useful to assess and compare adaptation plans in the frame of vulnerability reduction. Future studies can further contribute to support adaptation planning in these sectors by using, developing and streamlining this framework to additional and different socio-ecological contextsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Assessing the need for adaptive radiotherapy in head and neck cancer patients using an automatic planning tool

BACKGROUND: Unbiased analysis of the impact of adaptive radiotherapy (ART) is necessary to evaluate dosimetric benefit and optimize clinics’ workflows. The aim of the study was to assess the need for adaptive radiotherapy (ART) in head and neck (H&N) cancer patients using an automatic planning tool in a retrospective planning study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty H&N patients treated with adaptive radiotherapy were analysed. Patients had a CT scan for treatment planning and a verification CT during treatment according to the clinic’s protocol. Considering these images, three plans were retrospectively generated using the iCycle tool to simulate the scenarios with and without adaptation: 1) the optimized plan based on the planning CT; 2) the optimized plan based on the verification CT (ART-plan); 3) the plan obtained by considering treatment plan 1 re-calculated in the verification CT (non-ART plan). The dosimetric endpoints for both target volumes and OAR were compared between scenarios 2 and 3 and the SPIDERplan used to evaluate plan quality. RESULTS: The most significant impact of ART was found for the PTVs, which demonstrated decreased D98% in the non-ART plan. A general increase in the dose was observed for the OAR but only the spinal cord showed a statistical significance. The SPIDERplan analysis indicated an overall loss of plan quality in the absence of ART. CONCLUSION: These results confirm the advantages of ART in H&N patients, especially for the coverage of target volumes. The usage of an automatic planning tool reduces planner-induced bias in the results, guaranteeing that the observed changes derive from the application of ART.

To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4 °C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information