BMI and all cause mortality: systematic review and non-linear dose-response meta-analysis of 230 cohort studies with 3.74 million deaths among 30.3 million participants

 To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of body mass index (BMI) and the risk of all cause mortality, and to clarify the shape and the nadir of the dose-response curve, and the influence on the results of confounding from smoking, weight loss associated with disease, and preclinical disease. PubMed and Embase databases searched up to 23 September 2015. Cohort studies that reported adjusted risk estimates for at least three categories of BMI in relation to all cause mortality. Summary relative risks were calculated with random effects models. Non-linear associations were explored with fractional polynomial models. 230 cohort studies (207 publications) were included. The analysis of never smokers included 53 cohort studies (44 risk estimates) with >738 144 deaths and >9 976 077 participants. The analysis of all participants included 228 cohort studies (198 risk estimates) with >3 744 722 deaths among 30 233 329 participants. The summary relative risk for a 5 unit increment in BMI was 1.18 (95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.21; I(2)=95%, n=44) among never smokers, 1.21 (1.18 to 1.25; I(2)=93%, n=25) among healthy never smokers, 1.27 (1.21 to 1.33; I(2)=89%, n=11) among healthy never smokers with exclusion of early follow-up, and 1.05 (1.04 to 1.07; I(2)=97%, n=198) among all participants. There was a J shaped dose-response relation in never smokers (Pnon-linearity <0.001), and the lowest risk was observed at BMI 23-24 in never smokers, 22-23 in healthy never smokers, and 20-22 in studies of never smokers with ≥20 years follow-up. In contrast there was a U shaped association between BMI and mortality in analyses with a greater potential for bias including all participants, current, former, or ever smokers, and in studies with a short duration of follow-up (<5 years or <10 years), or with moderate study quality scores. Overweight and obesity is associated with increased risk of all cause mortality and the nadir of the curve was observed at BMI 23-24 among never smokers, 22-23 among healthy never smokers, and 20-22 with longer durations of follow-up. The increased risk of mortality observed in underweight people could at least partly be caused by residual confounding from prediagnostic disease. Lack of exclusion of ever smokers, people with prevalent and preclinical disease, and early follow-up could bias the results towards a more U shaped association

Dietary fibre intake and the risk of diverticular disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND: A high intake of dietary fibre has been associated with a reduced risk of diverticular disease in several studies; however, the dose-response relationship between fibre intake and diverticular disease risk has varied, and the available studies have not been summarised in a meta-analysis. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to clarify the association between dietary fibre intake, fibre subtypes, and the risk of diverticular disease. METHODS: PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to August 9th 2018. Summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model and nonlinear associations were modelled using fractional polynomial models. RESULTS: Five prospective cohort studies with 19,282 cases and 865,829 participants were included in the analysis of dietary fibre and diverticular disease risk. The summary RR was 0.74 (95% CI 0.71-0.78, I2 = 0%) per 10 g/day. There was no evidence of a nonlinear association between dietary fibre intake and diverticular disease risk, pnonlinearity = 0.35, and there was a 23%, 41% and 58% reduction in risk for an intake of 20, 30, and 40 g/day, respectively, compared to 7.5 g/day. There was no evidence of publication bias with Egger's test, p = 0.58 and the association persisted in subgroup and sensitivity analyses. The summary RR per 10 g/day was 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.81, I2 = 60%, n = 4) for cereal fibre, 0.56 (95% CI 0.37-0.84, I2 = 73%, n = 2) for fruit fibre, and 0.80 (95% CI 0.45-1.44, I2 = 87%, n = 2) for vegetable fibre. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that a high fibre intake may reduce the risk of diverticular disease and individuals consuming 30 g of fibre per day have a 41% reduction in risk compared to persons with a low fibre intake. Further studies are needed on fibre types and risk of diverticular disease and diverticulitis

Body mass index, abdominal fatness, fat mass and the risk of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and dose–response meta-analysis of prospective studies

Different adiposity measures have been associ- ated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation, however, results have previously only been summarized for BMI. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta- analysis of prospective studies to clarify the association between different adiposity measures and risk of atrial fibrillation. PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to October 24th 2016. Summary relative risks (RRs) were calculated using random effects models. Twenty-nine unique prospective studies (32 publications) were included. Twenty-five studies (83,006 cases, 2,405,381 participants) were included in the analysis of BMI and atrial fibrillation. The summary RR was 1.28 (95% confidence interval: 1.20–1.38, I 2 = 97%) per 5 unit increment in BMI, 1.18 (95% CI: 1.12–1.25, I 2 = 73%, n = 5) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.16–1.51, I 2 = 91%, n = 3) per 10 cm increase in waist and hip circumference, respectively, 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02–1.16, I 2 = 44%, n = 4) per 0.1 unit increase in waist- to-hip ratio, 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02–1.16, I 2 = 94%, n = 4) per 5 kg increase in fat mass, 1.10 (95% CI: 0.92–1.33, I 2 = 90%, n = 3) per 10% increase in fat percentage, 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08–1.13, I 2 = 74%, n = 10) per 5 kg increase in weight, and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.97–1.19, I 2 = 86%, n = 2) per 5% increase in weight gain. The association between BMI and atrial fibrillation was non- linear, p nonlinearity \ 0.0001, with a stronger association at higher BMI levels, however, increased risk was observed even at a BMI of 22–24 compared to 20. In conclusion, general and abdominal adiposity and higher body fat mass increase the risk of atrial fibrillation

Role of diet in type 2 diabetes incidence: umbrella review of meta-analyses of prospective observational studies

OBJECTIVE: To summarise the evidence of associations between dietary factors and incidence of type 2 diabetes and to evaluate the strength and validity of these associations. DESIGN: Umbrella review of systematic reviews with meta-analyses of prospective observational studies. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase, searched up to August 2018. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Systematic reviews with meta-analyses reporting summary risk estimates for the associations between incidence of type 2 diabetes and dietary behaviours or diet quality indices, food groups, foods, beverages, alcoholic beverages, macronutrients, and micronutrients. RESULTS: 53 publications were included, with 153 adjusted summary hazard ratios on dietary behaviours or diet quality indices (n=12), food groups and foods (n=56), beverages (n=10), alcoholic beverages (n=12), macronutrients (n=32), and micronutrients (n=31), regarding incidence of type 2 diabetes. Methodological quality was high for 75% (n=115) of meta-analyses, moderate for 23% (n=35), and low for 2% (n=3). Quality of evidence was rated high for an inverse association for type 2 diabetes incidence with increased intake of whole grains (for an increment of 30 g/day, adjusted summary hazard ratio 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.82 to 0.93)) and cereal fibre (for an increment of 10 g/day, 0.75 (0.65 to 0.86)), as well as for moderate intake of total alcohol (for an intake of 12-24 g/day v no consumption, 0.75 (0.67 to 0.83)). Quality of evidence was also high for the association for increased incidence of type 2 diabetes with higher intake of red meat (for an increment of 100 g/day, 1.17 (1.08 to 1.26)), processed meat (for an increment of 50 g/day, 1.37 (1.22 to 1.54)), bacon (per two slices/day, 2.07 (1.40 to 3.05)), and sugar sweetened beverages (for an increase of one serving/day, 1.26 (1.11 to 1.43)). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the association between dietary factors and type 2 diabetes has been extensively studied, but few of the associations were graded as high quality of evidence. Further factors are likely to be important in type 2 diabetes prevention; thus, more well conducted research, with more detailed assessment of diet, is needed. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018088106

An update of the WCRF/AICR systematic literature review and meta-analysis on dietary and anthropometric factors and esophageal cancer risk

Background: In the 2007 World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research Second Expert Report, the expert panel judged that there was strong evidence that alcoholic drinks and body fatness increased esophageal cancer risk, whereas fruits and vegetables probably decreased its risk. The judgments were mainly based on case–control studies. As part of the Continuous Update Project, we updated the scientific evidence accumulated from cohort studies in this topic. Methods: We updated the Continuous Update Project database up to 10 January 2017 by searching in PubMed and conducted dose–response meta-analyses to estimate summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using random effects model. Results: A total of 57 cohort studies were included in 13 meta-analyses. Esophageal adenocarcinoma risk was inversely related to vegetable intake (RR per 100 g/day: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80–0.99, n = 3) and directly associated with body mass index (RR per 5 kg/m2: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.34–1.61, n = 9). For esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, inverse associations were observed with fruit intake (RR for 100 g/day increment: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.75–0.94, n = 3) and body mass index (RR for 5 kg/m2 increment: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.56–0.73, n = 8), and direct associations with intakes of processed meats (RR for 50 g/day increment: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.11–2.28, n = 3), processed and red meats (RR for 100 g/day increment: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.04–1.82, n = 3) and alcohol (RR for 10 g/day increment: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.12–1.41, n = 6). Conclusions: Evidence from cohort studies suggested a protective role of vegetables and body weight control in esophageal adenocarcinomas development. For squamous cell carcinomas, higher intakes of red and processed meats and alcohol may increase the risk, whereas fruits intake may play a protective role

Whole grain consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all cause and cause specific mortality: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies

Objective To quantify the dose-response relation between consumption of whole grain and specific types of grains and the risk of cardiovascular disease, total cancer, and all cause and cause specific mortality. Data sources PubMed and Embase searched up to 3 April 2016. Study selection Prospective studies reporting adjusted relative risk estimates for the association between intake of whole grains or specific types of grains and cardiovascular disease, total cancer, all cause or cause specific mortality. Data synthesis Summary relative risks and 95% confidence intervals calculated with a random effects model. Results 45 studies (64 publications) were included. The summary relative risks per 90 g/day increase in whole grain intake (90 g is equivalent to three servings—for example, two slices of bread and one bowl of cereal or one and a half pieces of pita bread made from whole grains) was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.87; I2=9%, n=7 studies) for coronary heart disease, 0.88 (0.75 to 1.03; I2=56%, n=6) for stroke, and 0.78 (0.73 to 0.85; I2=40%, n=10) for cardiovascular disease, with similar results when studies were stratified by whether the outcome was incidence or mortality. The relative risks for morality were 0.85 (0.80 to 0.91; I2=37%, n=6) for total cancer, 0.83 (0.77 to 0.90; I2=83%, n=11) for all causes, 0.78 (0.70 to 0.87; I2=0%, n=4) for respiratory disease, 0.49 (0.23 to 1.05; I2=85%, n=4) for diabetes, 0.74 (0.56 to 0.96; I2=0%, n=3) for infectious diseases, 1.15 (0.66 to 2.02; I2=79%, n=2) for diseases of the nervous system disease, and 0.78 (0.75 to 0.82; I2=0%, n=5) for all non-cardiovascular, non-cancer causes. Reductions in risk were observed up to an intake of 210-225 g/day (seven to seven and a half servings per day) for most of the outcomes. Intakes of specific types of whole grains including whole grain bread, whole grain breakfast cereals, and added bran, as well as total bread and total breakfast cereals were also associated with reduced risks of cardiovascular disease and/or all cause mortality, but there was little evidence of an association with refined grains, white rice, total rice, or total grains. Conclusions This meta-analysis provides further evidence that whole grain intake is associated with a reduced risk of coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease, and total cancer, and mortality from all causes, respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, diabetes, and all non-cardiovascular, non-cancer causes. These findings support dietary guidelines that recommend increased intake of whole grain to reduce the risk of chronic diseases and premature mortality

Body size and obesity during adulthood, and risk of lympho-haematopoietic cancers: an update of the WCRF-AICR systematic review of published prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: To summarise the evidence on the associations between body mass index (BMI) and BMI in early adulthood, height, waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and risk of lympho-haematopoietic cancers. METHOD: We conducted a meta-analysis of prospective studies and identified relevant studies published up to December 2017 by searching PubMed. A random-effects model was used to calculate dose-response summary relative risks (RRs). RESULTS: Our findings showed BMI, and BMI in early adulthood (aged 18-21 years) is associated with the risk of Hodgkin's and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL and NHL), diffuse large beta-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), Leukaemia including acute and chronic myeloid lymphoma (AML and CML), and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) and multiple myeloma (MM). The summary RR per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI were 1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-1.20] for HL, 1.05 (95% CI: 1.03-1.08) for NHL, 1.11 (95% CI: 1.05-1.16) for DLBCL, 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03-1.09) for ML, 1.09 (95% CI: 1.03-1.15) for leukaemia, 1.13 (95% CI: 1.04-1.24) for AML, 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05-1.22) for CML and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00-1.09) for CLL, and were1.12 (95% CI: 1.05-1.19) for NHL, 1.22 (95% CI: 1.09-1.37) for DLBCL, and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.03-1.38) for FL for BMI in early adulthood analysis. Results on mortality showed a 15%, 16% and 17% increased risk of NHL, MM and leukaemia, respectively. Greater height increased the risk of NHL by 7%, DLBCL by 10%, FL by 9%, MM by 5% and Leukaemia by 7%. WHR was associated with increased risk of DLBCL by 12%. No association was found between higher WC and risk of MM. CONCLUSION: Our results revealed that general adiposity in adulthood and early adulthood, and greater height may increase the risk of almost all types of lympho-haematopoietic cancers and this adds to a growing body of evidence linking body fatness to several types of cancers.This work was funded by the World Cancer Research Fund Network (grant number 2007/SP01) as part of the Continuous Update Project (http://www.wcrf-uk.org/)

Adult weight gain and colorectal adenomas – a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Colorectal adenomas are known as precursors for the majority of colorectal carcinomas. While weight gain during adulthood has been identified as a risk factor for colorectal cancer, the association is less clear for colorectal adenomas. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the evidence on this association. Methods: We searched MEDLINE up to September 2016 to identify observational (prospective, cross-sectional and retrospective) studies on weight gain during adulthood and colorectal adenoma occurrence and recurrence. We conducted meta-analysis on high weight gain versus stable weight, linear and non-linear dose-response meta-analyses to analyze the association. Summary odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated using a random effects model. Results: For colorectal adenoma occurrence, the summary OR was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.17-1.65; I2 :43%, N =9 studies, cases=5,507) comparing high (midpoint: 17.4 kg) versus stable weight gain during adulthood and with each 5 kg weight gain the odds increased by 7% (2%-11%; I2 :65%, N=7 studies). Although there was indication of non-linearity (Pnon-linearity <0.001) there was an increased odds of colorectal adenoma throughout the whole range of weight gain. Three studies were identified investigating the association between weight gain and colorectal adenoma recurrence and data were limited to draw firm conclusions. Conclusions: Even a small amount of adult weight gain was related to a higher odds of colorectal adenoma occurrence. Our findings add to the benefits of weight control in adulthood regarding colorectal adenomas occurrence, which might be relevant for early prevention of colorectal cancer

Height and body fatness and colorectal cancer risk: an update of the WCRF–AICR systematic review of published prospective studies

Purpose: There is no published dose–response meta-analysis on the association between height and colorectal cancer risk (CRC) by sex and anatomical sub-site. We conducted a meta-analysis of prospective studies on the association between height and CRC risk with subgroup analysis and updated evidence on the association between body fatness and CRC risk. Methods: PubMed and several other databases were searched up to November 2016. A random effects model was used to calculate dose–response summary relative risks (RR’s). Results: 47 studies were included in the meta-analyses including 50,936 cases among 7,393,510 participants. The findings support the existing evidence regarding a positive association of height, general and abdominal body fatness and CRC risk. The summary RR were 1.04 [95% (CI)1.02–1.05, I² = 91%] per 5 cm increase in height, 1.02 [95% (CI)1.01–1.02, I² = 0%] per 5 kg increase in weight, 1.06 [95% (CI)1.04–1.07, I² = 83%] per 5 kg/m² increase in BMI, 1.02 [95% (CI)1.02–1.03, I² = 4%] per 10 cm increase in waist circumference, 1.03 [95% (CI)1.01–1.05, I² = 16%] per 0.1 unit increase in waist to hip ratio. The significant association for height and CRC risk was similar in men and women. The significant association for BMI and CRC risk was stronger in men than in women. Conclusion: The positive association between height and risk of CRC suggests that life factors during childhood and early adulthood might play a role in CRC aetiology. Higher general and abdominal body fatness during adulthood are risk factors of CRC and these associations are stronger in men than in women