Essays on sovereign debt and international capital flows

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2009.Includes bibliographical references.This dissertation is a collection of three essays on public and private borrowing on international capital markets, with a focus on optimal policy for the government and international financial institutions. Chapter 1 focuses on sovereign debt and default. Recent sovereign default episodes have been associated with substantial output costs, and the sovereign should take into account that any default decision may exacerbate such costs. I construct a two-period model where sovereign debt is held by both foreign creditors and domestic residents. Default on foreign lenders benefits domestic consumption, but default on domestic residents generates an output cost that increases with the extent of the default. I present two sets of optimal policy results. Firstly, I characterize the optimal default decision and show that full repudiation of debt is not optimal when domestic output costs are sufficiently high. A corollary is that the sovereign can issue debt even in the absence of reputational mechanisms. Secondly, I show that it is optimal for the government to render the domestic economy vulnerable to the adverse effects of default, in order to raise funds cheaply from abroad. Economic fragility is an optimal response to the lack of commitment of the sovereign. Chapter 2 extends the results to an infinite horizon specification. If the default decision does not lead to reduced capital market access in the future, the results from the two-period model remain valid in the infinite horizon.(cont.) I expand the framework to incorporate persistent productivity shocks. For this case, an adverse productivity shock leads to a reduction in the feasible set of debt levels today. I show that optimal borrowing may now be increasing, rather than decreasing, in the productivity shock. Finally, I examine whether the government chooses to issue debt in the long run. If the government is allowed to save abroad and simultaneously issue government debt, then it is optimal for the government to have a positive gross debt position even in the long run, irrespective of the discount factor. The results of chapter 1 are therefore operative in the infinite horizon. Chapter 3 concentrates on private rather than public borrowing. This chapter characterizes optimal IMF policy in an environment with moral hazard followed by adverse selection. In my framework, government actions to improve domestic productivity are not always effective, and the government learns of the success of its actions before foreign investors. Without the IMF, it is not possible for foreign investors to discern the quality of the domestic production sector. There only exists a pooling equilibrium ex post, which leads to low government effort ex ante. Optimal IMF intervention is the solution to a mechanism design problem in the presence of imperfectly informed competitive markets. Optimal IMF policy is structured so as to reveal the government's private information to foreign investors in a separating equilibrium. Government effort ex ante is high.(cont.) Countries with weak fundamentals ex post accept IMF transfers and face high interest rates on private capital markets. Countries with strong fundamentals make contributions to the IMF and receive low interest rates from foreign investors.by Suman S. Basu.Ph.D

Regional reserve pooling arrangements

Recently, several emerging market countries in East Asia and Latin America have initiated intra-regional reserve pooling mechanisms. This is puzzling from a traditional risk-diversification perspective, because country-level shocks are more correlated within rather than across regions. This paper provides a novel rationale for intra-regional pooling: if non-contingent reserve assets can be used to support production during a crisis, then a country's reserve accumulation decision affects not only its own production and consumption, but also its trading partners. If consumption through terms of trade effects. These terms of trade adjustments can be fully internalized only by a reserve pool among trading partners. If trade linkages are stronger within rather than across regions, then intra-regional reserve pooling may dominate inter-regional pooling, even if shocks are more correlated within regions.

INFORMAL SECTOR AND SOCIAL POLICY Compendium of Personal and Technical Reflections Cornell-SEWA-WIEGO Exposure and Dialogue Program Oaxaca, Mexico

Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade,

Flow-cytometric monitoring of disease-associated expression of 9-O-acetylated sialoglycoproteins in combination with known CD antigens, as an index for MRD in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: a two-year longitudinal follow-up study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Over expression of 9-<it>O-</it>acetylated sialoglycoproteins (Neu5,9Ac₂-GPs, abbreviated as <it>O</it>AcSGP) has been demonstrated as a disease-associated antigen on the lymphoblasts of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Achatinin-H, a lectin, has selective affinity towards terminal 9-<it>O-</it>acetylated sialic acids-α2-6-<it>N</it>acetylated galactosamine. Exploring this affinity, enhanced expression of <it>O</it>AcSGP was observed, at the onset of disease, followed by its decrease with chemotherapy and reappearance with relapse. In spite of treatment, patients retain the diseased cells referred to as minimal residual disease (MRD) responsible for relapse. Our aim was to select a suitable template by using the differential expression of <it>O</it>AcSGP along with other known CD antigens to monitor MRD in peripheral blood (PB) and bone marrow (BM) of Indian patients with B- or T-ALL during treatment and correlate it with the disease status.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A two-year longitudinal follow-up study was done with 109 patients from the onset of the disease till the end of chemotherapy, treated under MCP841protocol. Paired samples of PB (n = 1667) and BM (n = 999) were monitored by flow cytometry. Three templates selected for this investigation were <it>O</it>AcSGP⁺CD10⁺CD19⁺or <it>O</it>AcSGP⁺CD34⁺CD19⁺for B-ALL and <it>O</it>AcSGP⁺CD7⁺CD3⁺for T-ALL.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using each template the level of MRD detection reached 0.01% for a patient in clinical remission (CR). 81.65% of the patients were in CR during these two years while the remaining relapsed. Failure in early clearance of lymphoblasts, as indicated by higher MRD, implied an elevated risk of relapse. Soaring MRD during the chemotherapeutic regimen predicted clinical relapse, at least a month before medical manifestation. Irrespective of B- or T-lineage ALL, the MRD in PB and BM correlated well.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A range of MRD values can be predicted for the patients in CR, irrespective of their lineage, being 0.03 ± 0.01% (PB) and 0.05 ± 0.015% (BM). These patients may not be stated as normal with respect to the presence of MRD. Hence, MRD study beyond two-years follow-up is necessary to investigate further reduction in MRD, thereby ensuring their disease-free survival. Therefore, we suggest use of these templates for MRD detection, during and post-chemotherapy for proper patient management strategies, thereby helping in personalizing the treatment.</p

Science with the Daksha High Energy Transients Mission

We present the science case for the proposed Daksha high energy transients mission. Daksha will comprise of two satellites covering the entire sky from 1~keV to $>1$~MeV. The primary objectives of the mission are to discover and characterize electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave source; and to study Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs). Daksha is a versatile all-sky monitor that can address a wide variety of science cases. With its broadband spectral response, high sensitivity, and continuous all-sky coverage, it will discover fainter and rarer sources than any other existing or proposed mission. Daksha can make key strides in GRB research with polarization studies, prompt soft spectroscopy, and fine time-resolved spectral studies. Daksha will provide continuous monitoring of X-ray pulsars. It will detect magnetar outbursts and high energy counterparts to Fast Radio Bursts. Using Earth occultation to measure source fluxes, the two satellites together will obtain daily flux measurements of bright hard X-ray sources including active galactic nuclei, X-ray binaries, and slow transients like Novae. Correlation studies between the two satellites can be used to probe primordial black holes through lensing. Daksha will have a set of detectors continuously pointing towards the Sun, providing excellent hard X-ray monitoring data. Closer to home, the high sensitivity and time resolution of Daksha can be leveraged for the characterization of Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to ApJ. More details about the mission at https://www.dakshasat.in

Biophysical Characterization of the Strong Stabilization of the RNA Triplex poly(U)•poly(A)*poly(U) by 9-O-(ω-amino) Alkyl Ether Berberine Analogs

Background: Binding of two 9-O-(v-amino) alkyl ether berberine analogs BC1 and BC2 to the RNA triplex poly(U)Npoly(A)*poly(U) was studied by various biophysical techniques. Methodology/Principal Findings: Berberine analogs bind to the RNA triplex non-cooperatively. The affinity of binding was remarkably high by about 5 and 15 times, respectively, for BC1 and BC2 compared to berberine. The site size for the binding was around 4.3 for all. Based on ferrocyanide quenching, fluorescence polarization, quantum yield values and viscosity results a strong intercalative binding of BC1 and BC2 to the RNA triplex has been demonstrated. BC1 and BC2 stabilized the Hoogsteen base paired third strand by about 18.1 and 20.5uC compared to a 17.5uC stabilization by berberine. The binding was entropy driven compared to the enthalpy driven binding of berbeine, most likely due to additional contacts within the grooves of the triplex and disruption of the water structure by the alkyl side chain. Conclusions/Significance: Remarkably higher binding affinity and stabilization effect of the RNA triplex by the amino alkyl berberine analogs was achieved compared to berberine. The length of the alkyl side chain influence in the triplex stabilization phenomena

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe