4,124 research outputs found
Election Administration during Natural Disasters and Emergencies: Hurrican Sandy and the 2012 Election
The conduct of elections is constrained by a myriad of factors that vary greatly across the 3,000+ jurisdictions authorized to administered elections in the United States. Among these factors are anticipated and unanticipated natural and man-made emergencies. Weather is foremost among the anticipated and probabilistic factors that can influence the operation of an election. Rain and other hazardous weather (e.g., hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, et al) can deter voters from voting (Gomez et al 2007) and interrupt balloting on and before Election Day. For example, damage to roads and buildings can impede voters and poll workers from getting to and operating polling places on and before Election Day. Moreover, a loss of power can render direct electronic recording (DRE) voting machines unusable. Voters that evacuate their homes before and after a natural disaster are indisposed to vote on or even before Election Day at their assigned polling place
Officials can nudge public behavior by showing that they are responding to people's demands
A key aim of public policymaking is to change public behavior in one way or another. In new research which focuses on voting patterns in Colorado, Andrew Menger and Robert M. Stein tested a number of ways of encouraging people to return their mail-in ballots early. They find that only message which increased early voting was one which explained that ..
Asymptotic Exit Location Distributions in the Stochastic Exit Problem
Consider a two-dimensional continuous-time dynamical system, with an
attracting fixed point . If the deterministic dynamics are perturbed by
white noise (random perturbations) of strength , the system state
will eventually leave the domain of attraction of . We analyse the
case when, as , the exit location on the boundary
is increasingly concentrated near a saddle point of the
deterministic dynamics. We show that the asymptotic form of the exit location
distribution on is generically non-Gaussian and asymmetric,
and classify the possible limiting distributions. A key role is played by a
parameter , equal to the ratio of the stable
and unstable eigenvalues of the linearized deterministic flow at . If
then the exit location distribution is generically asymptotic as
to a Weibull distribution with shape parameter , on the
length scale near . If it is generically
asymptotic to a distribution on the length scale, whose
moments we compute. The asymmetry of the asymptotic exit location distribution
is attributable to the generic presence of a `classically forbidden' region: a
wedge-shaped subset of with as vertex, which is reached from ,
in the limit, only via `bent' (non-smooth) fluctuational paths
that first pass through the vicinity of . We deduce from the presence of
this forbidden region that the classical Eyring formula for the
small- exponential asymptotics of the mean first exit time is
generically inapplicable.Comment: This is a 72-page Postscript file, about 600K in length. Hardcopy
requests to [email protected] or [email protected]
Absence of reflection as a function of the coupling constant
We consider solutions of the one-dimensional equation where is locally integrable, is integrable with supp, and
is a coupling constant. Given a family of solutions
which satisfy for all , we prove that the zeros of , the Wronskian of and , form a discrete set
unless . Setting , one sees that a particular
consequence of this result may be stated as: if the fixed energy scattering
experiment gives rise to a reflection coefficient
which vanishes on a set of couplings with an accumulation point, then .Comment: To appear in Journal of Mathematical Physic
Observational manifestations of solar magneto-convection -- center-to-limb variation
We present the first center-to-limb G-band images synthesized from high
resolution simulations of solar magneto-convection. Towards the limb the
simulations show "hilly" granulation with dark bands on the far side, bright
granulation walls and striated faculae, similar to observations. At disk center
G-band bright points are flanked by dark lanes. The increased brightness in
magnetic elements is due to their lower density compared with the surrounding
intergranular medium. One thus sees deeper layers where the temperature is
higher. At a given geometric height, the magnetic elements are cooler than the
surrounding medium. In the G-band, the contrast is further increased by the
destruction of CH in the low density magnetic elements. The optical depth unity
surface is very corrugated. Bright granules have their continuum optical depth
unity 80 km above the mean surface, the magnetic elements 200-300 km below. The
horizontal temperature gradient is especially large next to flux
concentrations. When viewed at an angle, the deep magnetic elements optical
surface is hidden by the granules and the bright points are no longer visible,
except where the "magnetic valleys" are aligned with the line of sight. Towards
the limb, the low density in the strong magnetic elements causes unit
line-of-sight optical depth to occur deeper in the granule walls behind than
for rays not going through magnetic elements and variations in the field
strength produce a striated appearance in the bright granule walls.Comment: To appear in ApJL. 6 pages 4 figure
The Fiscal Impact of the U. S. Military Assistance Program, 1967-1976
The study of U.S. arms transfers and their impact on the fiscal decisions of aid recipients has been the subject of various interpretations and competing explanations. Absent in this literature has been a systematic testing of propositions derived from a general theory of aid impacts. A larger and somewhat related body of research has examined the political (Chaudhuri 1972; Hughes 1967; Gutteridge 1967) and general economic effects of domestic military spending (Deger and Smith 1983; Smith 1977, 1980; Benoit 1978; Kennedy 1974; Whynes 1979). These studies, however, have not examined the fiscal impact of foreign military assistance. To date only a few researchers have studied this issue in any systematic fashion (McGuire 1979, 1982; Wolf 1971). In this study we seek to fill this gap by applying grant economics theory (Pigou 1932; Oates 1972) to study the fiscal impact of U.S. military arms transfers on foreign nations. Drawing on the domestic aid literature (Oates 1972; Gramlich 1972), we identify a set of propositions concerning the expenditure decisions of domestic aid recipients, and test these propositions against the fiscal behavior of Military Assistance Program (MAP) recipients between 1967-1976. In addition to the substantive import of this question and its bearing on the implementation of U.S. foreign policy, this research provides a unique opportunity to test the applicability of domestic aid theory to the study of foreign aid policy
Escape tactics used by bluegills and fathead minnows to avoid predation by tiger muskellunge
To explain why esocids prefer cylindrical, soft-rayed prey over compressed, spiny-rayed prey, we quantified behavioral interaction between tiger muskellunge (F1 hybrid of male northern pike Esox lucius and female muskellunge E. masquinongy) and fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) and bluegills (Lepomis macrochirus). Tiger muskellunge required four times as many strikes and longer pursuits to capture bluegills than fathead minnows. Tiger muskellunge attacked each prey species differently; fathead minnows were grasped at midbody and bluegills were attacked in the caudal area. Each prey species exhibited different escape tactics. Fathead minnows remained in open water and consistently schooled; bluegills dispersed throughout the tank and sought cover by moving to corners and edges. Due to their antipredatory behavior (dispersing, cover seeking, and remaining motionless) and morphology (deep body and spines), bluegills were less susceptible to capture by tiger muskellunge than were fathead minnows.Funding for this project was provided by the Federal Aid in Fish Restoration Act under Dingell-Johnson Project F-57-R
Fictional Plots and Historical Explanation: A Response to David Leeson's "Cutting Through History"
Predation by Tiger Muskellunge on Bluegill: Effects of Predator Experience, Vegetation, and Prey Density
Many pellet-reared tiger muskellunge (F1 hybrid of female muskellunge Esox masquinongy and male northern pike E. lucius) do not survive stocking in reservoirs dominated by bluegill Lepomis
macrochirus prey. Poor survival may occur because few hybrids capture bluegills. In a previous study done in hatchery ponds, only 10% of naive hybrids (those never before exposed to live prey) captured bluegills during 15 days. In similar ponds, we tested the effects of predator experience (using hybrids previously exposed to bluegill prey), vegetative cover, and bluegill
density on the number of hybrids capturing prey. Few experienced or naive hybrids captured bluegills at low prey density, regardless of the presence or absence of vegetation. When bluegill density was increased from 1 to 5 prey/m2 in ponds or to 40/m2 in aquaria, many hybrids captured bluegills. Our pond study suggests that most hybrids will not fare well when stocked in lakes where only bluegill forage is present.This research was supported in part by funds
from the Federal Aid in Fish Restoration Act
under Dingell-Johnson Project F-57-R
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